Here's everything you need to know about Valspar Championship first-round leader picks for 2024 — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Palm Harbor, Florida.
With THE PLAYERS Championship in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2000.
Copperhead is a par-71, 7,340-yard track designed by Larry Packard that presents a strong challenge and rewards those who can scramble along this tree-lined venue.
Find my Valspar Championship first-round leader picks for 2024 below.
Valspar Championship First-Round Leader Picks 2024
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
Sam Burns +2800 (FanDuel | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:13 a.m. ET
That brings us to Sam Burns, who tees off in the fourth of 26 groups on Thursday (there are actually 52 groupings, but the field goes off on the front- and back-nine simultaneously). We are going to hear Burns's name a lot this week due to his dominance at Copperhead.
He claimed back-to-back victories here in 2021 and 2022 and then followed those up with a sixth-place finish last year. In fact, through five career appearances at Copperhead, Burns has never finished lower than 30th.
This success here makes sense considering his tremendous ability to scramble. On Tour this season, Burns ranks 22nd in Scrambling percentage.
I mentioned in the introduction that scrambling is key to success here, as getting up and down to avoid bogeys due to Copperhead's tough layout is usually what separates the top of the leaderboard from the rest. Last year, all of the top-four finishers here ranked 15th or higher among the field that week in scrambling percentage, the only metric in which such a trend occurred.
In order to cash a first-round leader ticket, Burns will need to go low, but he has already shown this season that he can make birdies in bunches as he ranks eight on Tour in Birdie Average (4.93 birdies per round) and fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage (28.81%).
Burns has made birdies in droves thanks to his hot putter, which has gained strokes in every start so far this season as he ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Putting. In his five starts at Copperhead, he has also gained strokes with the flatstick in all five appearances.
Finally, Burns is in ridiculously great form entering this tournament, making the weekend in 12 straight tournaments with five top-10 finishes over that stretch.
Sungjae Im +4000 (FanDuel | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:13 a.m. ET
Sungjae Im will be golfing alongside Burns on Thursday in the same group, and he is a great buy-low candidate in this market at 40-1. Im is a tremendous golfer who has not been getting the results he is accustomed to thus far this season, but that is why we are getting a generous price on one of the world's best golfers.
He is also starting to find his game again, with a T18 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T31 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Those aren't top-tier finishes by any means, but it is an improvement compared to how his season has started. Between The Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Im lost strokes on Approach in six consecutive tournaments, but he has seemingly turned a corner.
On top of that, the fields in those two tournaments were far more competitive than the field he will face this week at Copperhead. Speaking of Copperhead, this could be a venue that helps Im continue to turn his game back around as he finished in a tie for fourth here in 2019. In his only other start here, he finished in a tie for 29th in 2021.
The South Korean has always had a strong short game, and that will help him at this course. If he can get the putter going, Im could definitely scrap together the lowest first-round score as part of this morning wave.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Valspar Championship, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Xander Schauffele Outright Winner (+800 at bet365) – 0.36 Units
- Nick Taylor Outright Winner (+3500 at bet365) – 0.33 Units
- Doug Ghim Top Five (+1100 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Maverick McNealy Top 10 (+600 at bet365) – 0.27 Units
- Andrew Novak Top 20 (+475 at bet365) – 0.24 Units
- Peter Malnati Top 20 (+800 at bet365) – 0.20 Units
- Rico Hoey Top 20 (+900 at bet365) – 0.17 Units
- Sam Burns FRL (+2800 at FanDuel) – 0.14 Units
- Sungjae Im FRL (+4000 at FanDuel) – 0.11 Units
