Find Valspar Championship Predictions when the PGA Tour heads to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort this week in Palm Harbor, Florida.
While THE PLAYERS Championship was incredibly entertaining on Sunday, it was also an incredibly painful close call with our Xander Schauffele outright bet.
We have no choice but to dust ourselves off and turn our attention to this week's Valspar Championship for the final leg of the Florida Swing. The Valspar Championship is held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, which is a par-71 that measures 7,340 yards. This is not your typical Florida course, as the fairways are tree-lined, and there are quite a few elevation changes. If anything, this plays more like a Carolina course.
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The fairways here are quite narrow (30 yards wide on average), and there are several doglegs. This leads to golfers taking less than driver on some of the holes. The average Driving Distance of the field here last year was only 280 yards, so it's not imperative to be a bomber to play well. The rough is penal, and water is in play on nine of the 18 holes, so hitting fairways is important. When looking at off-the-tee metrics, I prefer Total Driving this week.
The greens at Copperhead are small (5,800 square feet on average) and feature dormant Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed. The field only hit 55% of greens in regulation last year, which places a major emphasis on around-the-green play. This is not your typical wedge fest on the PGA Tour, as we can expect over 50% of approach shots to be hit from at least 175 yards.
This is routinely one of the 10 toughest courses on Tour, and difficult courses require excellent tee-to-green play. Putting will always help determine the winner, but I’m focusing more on approach play and around the green play.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -100
- Current bankroll: $716
Valspar Championship Predictions 2024
Valspar Championship Outright Predictions
Justin Thomas to Win +1600 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $340
I considered two golfers at the top of the board this week and ultimately decided on Justin Thomas over Sam Burns. Hopefully that decision doesn’t come back to haunt me.
While Thomas missed the cut last week at THE PLAYERS, it was all due to putting. He actually gained 4.7 strokes on Approach in just two rounds. I’m willing to forgive a bad putting week, especially since he gained with the flatstick in four of his previous six starts. He’s one of the best iron players in the world and is also elite around the green.
He’s also driving the ball much better now that he’s off his gluten-free diet. The Crimson Tide golfer has been trending toward a win over the last six months and has finished in the top 15 at this event in each of the last three years. It’s time for JT to get back in the winner’s circle.
Doug Ghim to Win +5000 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $1020
I have always been a fan of modeling and love creating my own golf metrics to use in my model. I ran the model this week. Then I double-checked everything and ran it again. I got the same result – Doug Ghim rated out as the sixth-best option in the entire field, which is not adjusted for odds.
If I can get the sixth-best projected player in the field at +5000, you better believe I am betting it. The Ghim Reaper has rattled off five straight top-20 finishes and has gained over 20 strokes ball-striking during that stretch. If he has a decent week with the short game, I could easily see him being in contention on Sunday.
Lucas Glover to Win +7000 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $1420
Lucas Glover isn’t a golfer whom I bet on often, so I didn’t love watching him win back-to-back events in the fall. However, he checks a lot of boxes for me this week. He’s a good total driver of the ball, he’s a top-five iron player in this field, he’s a strong fit for the course, and he has made three straight cuts here.
He enters in strong ball-striking form as he has gained on Approach in five straight events and has gained Around the Green in six of his last seven starts. He’s back to struggling with the flatstick, but there’s always a chance he has a spike week on the greens like he did six months ago.
Valspar Championship Placement Predictions
Aaron Rai Top 20 +225 (DraftKings)
Bet $20 to pay $65
I love the course fit for Aaron Rai and love the way his game is trending. We’ll start with the course, which demands accuracy off the tee and strong iron play. Rai hits a ton of fairways and is one of the best in the field on approach. Over his last two starts, he has gained 4.9 and 8.6 strokes ball-striking.
His short game has held him back from some high finishes this season, but in the long term, he’s actually pretty solid around the green. The putter is always a wildcard, but I’m betting on Glover, so I’m clearly not too worried about the flatstick. Rai has never played here before, but I like his chances of finishing in the top 20 in this weaker field.
Alexander Bjork Top 20 +475 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $95
My final bet of the week is for Alexander Bjork to finish in the top 20. If you only follow the PGA Tour, you likely don’t know much about Bjork because he hasn’t been great in his starts so far this year.
However, his stat profile on the DP World Tour is certainly appealing. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s one of the best on approach, he’s solid around the green, and he’s an above-average putter. This feels like a perfect fit for him to have a breakout week on the PGA Tour.
If we have another sweat this Sunday, let’s hope this one goes our way. Good luck!
