While many of the stars took the week off, the 3M Open presented an opportunity for one of the more unknown names to claim a win.
Michael Thompson took that chance and cashed in as the first triple digit longshot on the PGA Tour since the restart nearly two months ago.
With the win, Thompson punched his ticket into all of the top events for the rest of the season, starting with the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational this week.
This will be our first WGC event since the Tour's return and as always, it presents a limited field of just 78 players and will not have a cut.
The Course
TPC Southwind hosts the WGC event for just the second time, but it's a familiar course after holding the St. Jude Classic for three decades.
The course measures 7,244 yards for a par 70 and can play fairly tough at times with water in play on about half the holes.
We tend to see the same people pop up on the leaderboard each year here. Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger both have won twice here recently. And prior to Brooks Koepka's win last year, he had two other top three finishes.
Because of its previous placement on the calendar, many of the top names hadn't played it much. Prior to last season, the St. Jude Classic was usually held the week before the U.S. Open, so many of the upper echelon tended to pick an extra week of preparation over playing here.
A combo of length and accuracy is required off the tee. Also having some comfort on Bermuda greens is a plus as we shift back to that surface for the first time since the RBC Heritage.
The Favorites
Not much separates the top four names on the board. Newly-christened world No. 1 Jon Rahm opens as the slight favorite at +1100 over Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau, who are all +1200.
Patrick Cantlay is the only other player below +2000 at +1800.
Webb Simpson and Xander Schauffele were next at +2200 and drew the most interest for me, but I'd need something close to +3000 before I played either of them.
Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa close out this range at +2500 along with Daniel Berger at +2800.
The Midtier
In this range, I'll start with Patrick Reed +3500 (DraftKings). Reed was on the card at a much bigger number for Memorial, but I'll circle back around this time.
Reed closed strong and finish 10th at Muirfield Village and he was 12th here a year ago. The ball striking can be erratic with Reed, but he's one of the few players with a consistent enough short game to override that in an elite field.
This is about as low as I like to get when betting him though, and I wouldn't really dip below him at +3300.
I'll also go with Matthew Wolff at +8000 (Bet365). Wolff is usually inconsistent, but has found a decent run of form over the past month.
He was 24th last year in his debut, but after opening over par, he carded weekend rounds of 65 and 69.
The Longshots
WGCs and triple-digit odds don't usually go together, but I'll try out one play here with Matt Wallace at 150-1 (DraftKings).
He's on a run of three good starts highlighted by a fourth place finish at the Memorial. For him to contend, he'll need to dial in the irons a little better, but the rest of the game has been solid for a few weeks now.
Wallace has shown the ability to hang around in strong fields and is a proven winner in Europe. He's probably better off as a top 10 or 20 play and I wouldn't dip below 125-1 on the outright.
The WGC-FedEx St. Jude Card
- Patrick Reed +3500 (.94 units)
- Matthew Wolff +8000 (.41 units)
- Matt Wallace +15000 (.22 units)
Total Stake: 1.57 units
