Last week was the first event of the year where we didn't have a golfer in contention. For whatever reason, I've had a lot less success at no-cut events over the years. It was still a fun weekend, and it was nice to see Rory McIlroy get back in the winner's circle on the PGA TOUR. We now head to Arizona for one of my favorite events of the year — the WM Phoenix Open.
This is truly an elite week for golf and football fans. We get the raucous atmosphere of the WM Phoenix Open (including the stadium on the Par 3 16th hole) and then the Super Bowl starts right as the final round of the golf event is concluding. Soak up this week because the sports world seems to really slow down after this.
TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 that measures 7,261 yards. It has some of the best risk/reward holes on the PGA TOUR, especially on the back nine. This is a desert course with average-sized fairways (33 yards wide) and large greens (7,100 square feet). The winning score each of the last 5 years has been between 17-under and 21-under par.
In terms of difficulty, this is pretty average compared to most events. It's not a pure birdie-fest, but it's not a super challenging course either. Most of the difficulty comes on the 6 holes with water hazards. Course history matters more here than any other stop not named Augusta National. Being familiar with the course and the party crowd pays big dividends.
Historically, this has been a ball striker's paradise. We've seen Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler dominate here over the last 10 years. The greens are easy to hit on average, which lowers the importance of around the green play. You always have to putt well to win, but we've seen a lot of bad putters play well here.
This is also a course that benefits good drivers of the ball. Nearly 85% of tee shots on the Par 4s and Par 5s are hit with a driver, which is one of the highest marks on TOUR. I am heavily weighing strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and course history this week. Let's dive into the picks.
WM Phoenix Open
Sam Burns +2800
I would have loved to bet on Scottie Scheffler last week. He's won this event in 2 of the last 3 years and led the field in strokes gained approach last week. However, I see no value in betting on a golfer in a full field at +280. I'll take my chances with a fade and hope he doesn't break my heart.
I see plenty of value on Burns, who has finished third and sixth here the last two years. He hasn't been playing incredible golf of late, but he still has 3 top 10 finishes in his last 6 events. He is consistently gaining strokes off the tee and on the green, which is a good combo for this course.
He has historically been a good iron player, so I expect that to improve sooner rather than later.
Sahith Theegala +4500
If not for some additional adrenaline on the 17th hole at this event, Theegala would have a win at TPC Scottsdale. He was in the driver's seat and hit what looked like a perfect drive on the short Par 4. Unfortunately, he carried it a little too far and it rolled all the way through the green into the water behind the green.
While I don't love his current form or underlying statistics, he's a golfer who doesn't stay in bad form for long. He always seems to right the ship and post a high-end finish after a few bad starts. I'm hoping he can do that this week on a course where he's recorded two top-five finishes in the last three years.
Billy Horschel +7000
I thought about Corey Conners and Kurt Kitayama as my last bet of the week, but I want a golfer who can stand up to the likes of Scottie Scheffler when in contention. Horschel has shown time and time again that he's not afraid of anyone on the course.
He's won some extremely big events, including the WGC Match Play a few years ago. His game is trending nicely, as he's finished T21 and T9 in his last 2 starts. He's historically been a great ball striker and has added a tidy short game to his repertoire over the last few years. He hasn't missed a cut here since 2014 and has 2 top 10 finishes in the last 5 years.
Good luck this week. If you are worried about Scheffler running away with the event, you can always check out the 'Winner Without Scheffler' market.
