Not much went my way at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Adam Hadwin snuck into the top-5 late, but that was the highlight of an otherwise frustrating tournament. Simply put, if the favorite wins, I'm going to lose.
The TOUR will now head to Muirfield Village for the first of two events, back to back. The Workday Charity Open takes the place of the canceled John Deere Classic on the schedule.
The Course
Muirfield Village has been the host of The Memorial since 1976, so it's one of the more familiar stops on The PGA TOUR. It's a little longer than the courses we've seen since the restart, checking in at around 7,400 yards for a par 72.
Despite the added length, the rough and water hazards still make precision paramount. Success has typically come from players with strong all-around games like last year's winner Patrick Cantlay. Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler have also put together good track records here.
Those guys are all solid off the tee, but I wouldn't really classify them as bombers. Even Matt Kuchar has figured out how to plot his way to a win and a handful of top-five finishes at Muirfield Village.
Distance helps as always, but not at the expense of accuracy and players usually need to find a happy medium between the two.
We'll see if that holds true again this week as there are expected to be some minor tweaks to the set up with the course hosting two events back to back.
In addition to different tee and pin positions, the rough may be a little shorter, which would give more of an edge to the bombers more than usual.
Will course form holds with the adjustments? Or will the guys who typically struggle here find the changes more to their liking.
The Favorites
There are a bunch of big names sitting this week out, but there's still enough star power to make the top of the board interesting.
Justin Thomas opened as a +1100 ($10 bet wins $110) favorite, followed closely by Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Cantlay at +1400. Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele round out the teens at +1600.
The next group of players is a bit interesting with Justin Rose at +2200 and Viktor Hovland at +2500. Rose has put up great results here, while Hovland's tee-to-green game has been as good as anyone on TOUR since play resumed.
Mid-Tier
As usual, there's nothing much really drawing my attention at the top of the board, so I'll start my card in this range with Bubba Watson (+7500)
Watson's got a mixed history here with a couple of top-six finishes to go with some sub-standard results. His driver has been solid since the restart, but his irons have been hit and miss.
Bubba's approach game is typically pretty good, so I'll take a chance it bounces back this week.
I'll stay in this range with Cameron Champ at +7500.
Champ has played in two events since the TOUR resumed play, finishing 12th and 14th. He doesn't have much history here, but if the course is set up differently, then that won't hurt him as much as it normally would.
His irons get spotty from time to time, so we'll need him to have the approach dialed in to contend.
I wouldn't drop below +7000 for either of these guys.
Longshots
We'll play a couple of guys down here in the triple-digits and tack on top-20 plays.
Jhonattan Vegas has made the cut in all three events he's played since the hiatus and he's finished inside the top-25 in his last two outings. That's good enough for me at 200-1. Vegas is listed at 150-1 at most sportsbooks and I wouldn't dip too much further below that.
Lastly, I'll go with Henrik Norlander, also at 200-1.
Norlander led the field last week in ball-striking and has been pretty consistent with both the driver and irons since the TOUR resumed play. The putter has been his issue all season though, so we'll need to get lucky on the greens with him.
Like Vegas, I wouldn't dip too far below this number with Henrik.
As for the top-20 plays on these guys I'm looking for Vegas in the +600 range and +800 on Norlander.
Since this card is relatively light, it gives us a lot of wiggle room to add a couple of in-play bets once we have more of an idea about how this new set up will play.
The Workday Card
- Bubba Watson +7000 (.47 units)
- Cameron Champ +8500 (.39 units)
- Jhonattan Vegas +20000 (.22 units)
- Henrik Norlander +20000 (.17 units)
Total Stake: 1.25 units
