The PGA Tour is back with the fifth event of the FedExCup Fall — the World Wide Technology Championship in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
With a full set of four par-5s and some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, golfers will need to get to the eight-under-par range at El Cardonal at Diamante to contend for the first-round lead.
I'm putting an emphasis on golfers with high Birdie or Better Rates, who hit the ball longer than their peers, and are capable of spiking on approach play for my first-round leader picks this week.
Find my World Wide Technology Championship first-round leader picks and analysis below.
World Wide Technology Championship 2023 FRL Picks
Akshay Bhatia +4500
First-Round Tee Time: 2:54 p.m. ET
Akshay Bhatia has the game to get to eight-under par on Thursday afternoon at El Cardonal, as long as his putter cooperates. He should give himself plenty of birdie opportunities.
The 21-year-old is one of the few elite ball-strikers in this field as he ranks among the top 12 in this field in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (12th, 30th overall on Tour) and SG: Approach (sixth, 30th overall on Tour). Off the tee, I'm putting more of an emphasis on Driving Distance than Driving Accuracy, and Bhatia ranks above the Tour average in both of these metrics.
Because we don't have any prior data on this week's course, emphasizing a certain proximity is more of a guessing game than usual. However, Bhatia ranks above the Tour average in every single 25-yard span from 125-150 yards through 250-275 yards, so he should be uniquely set up to thrive at El Cardonal.
Bhatia has established himself as one of the better birdie makers on Tour as he ranks 22nd overall and sixth in this field in Birdie or Better Percentage. His rank of eighth overall on Tour in Par-4 Birdie or Better Percentage makes him very intriguing on a course with six par-4s over 460 yards.
Bhatia is just below the Tour average in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, but with the huge greens and lack of rough around the greens, this weakness should be minimized. Bhatia is above average on Sand Save Percentage, and with 48 bunkers on the course (many of them around the green), he may actually gain strokes around the greens this week.
Consequently, the Barracuda Championship winner should set himself up for enough birdie chances to get to eight-under-par. Bhatia is a below-average putter, but on slower Paspalum greens, his weakness may be mitigated.
The last time he played on Paspalum came at the Mexico Open (a course I believe has a similar setup as El Cardonal), and Bhatia put together the best putting performance of his Tour career, gaining 1.2 strokes per round on the greens.
I don't normally love betting golfers in the afternoon wave for first-round leader, but with winds projected to stay below eight miles per hour on Thursday, Bhatia's afternoon tee time shouldn't be a significant disadvantage.
El Cardonal should emphasize Bhatia's strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. It may also turn some of his weaknesses into strengths. Consequently, I love him in the first-round leader market this week down to 35-1.
Will Gordon +8000
First-Round Tee Time: 10:42 a.m. ET
Will Gordon probably can't win the tournament this week because of his weaknesses around the green and with his putter, but the Vanderbilt product has intriguing upside with his irons and driver that make him worth a FRL sprinkle.
Gordon is slightly above the Tour average in Driving Accuracy, but is one of the longest players on Tour (21st) and in this field (11th). Overall, he is 37th in SG: Off the Tee, which ranks 14th in this field.
The Commodore is also above average on Tour on SG: Approach as he ranks 34th in this field. However, he is strongest from 175-200 yards and 200-225 yards (where he ranks 37th on Tour in Proximity for each of these ranges).
With six of the 10 par-4s at El Cardonal playing at least 462 yards, he should be well positioned to attack these longer par-4s, in addition to the four par-5s, thanks to his distance off the tee and strong approach proximity from 175-225 yards.
Gordon has shown he can make birdies consistently as he ranks 32nd in Birdie or Better Percentage on Tour, which ranks 10th in this field. It will be critical to capitalize on the par-5s and he ranks sixth in this field in Par-5 Birdie or Better Percentage.
Like Bhatia, Gordon has issues around and on the greens, but as discussed, these weaknesses should be minimized at El Cardonal.
Gordon is coming off of a T21 in his most recent start at the Zozo Championship (unfortunately, there was no Strokes Gained data in Japan), where approach play is imperative. Hopefully he rides that strong form to a low round on Thursday in Cabo.
I bet Gordon at +8000 and would play him down to +7000 for FRL.
