World Wide Technology Championship 2023 Picks & Odds: Bet Davis Thompson & Sam Ryder

Tiger Woods is back this week!

Well, I mean, uhh, kinda sorta.

Alright, so El Tigre isn’t competing at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship, but his fingerprints will be all over the tournament as it moves to El Cardonal at Diamante in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico — the first Woods-designed course to host a PGA Tour event.

While there’s no immediate expectation that Tiger will be on-site, his name will dominate the early-week headlines, with this tourney perhaps serving as a figurative checkpoint between one stage of his professional career and the next.

El Cardonal, which opened in 2014, will play as a 7,452-yard par-72, though it might not play anywhere close to that length, considering the area’s significant elevation and turf which is expected to be running fast throughout the week.

The weather is forecasted to be hot and dry, with winds gusting into the mid-teens during each round. The views will be exquisite, as the Pacific Ocean will frame the backdrop of so many shots, making this must-see TV for those in cold-weather climates who are longing for such scenes.

With the anticipation, however, come plenty of unknowns.

I’ll start this week’s picks with an acknowledgment that what we don’t know can indeed hurt us this week.

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World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Davis Thompson (+4500)

Look, it’s certainly possible that either Ludvig Aberg (+900) or Cameron Young (+1100) – the two favorites in this week’s otherwise unimpressive field, each of whom I’ll mention below – will earn a much-awaited first PGA Tour victory, but I’d rather not pay up to find out.

My strategy for this week’s card is to look a bit further down the board, targeting a few outrights from those who wouldn’t come as a surprise should they win soon. That landed me on Davis Thompson, who’s been consistently playing at a high level, with six top-35 results in his last seven starts.

We’ve seen him come close to winning already – he was potentially a pulled flagstick away from a playoff with Jon Rahm at the American Express back in January – so we know his heightened floor comes with a solid ceiling, as well.

Without many proven winners in the top tier, I’d rather start my plays around this number, and Thompson seems to make the most sense.

Pick: Davis Thompson Outright +4500

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Sam Ryder (+7000)

His fictional agent on a series of Ryder television commercials seems impressed with his game, so maybe we should be similarly awed by Sam Ryder.

He’s recently been given the Rickie Fowler treatment, as we see more of him on our TV screens when he’s not playing than when he is, but that shouldn’t cloud the fact that he owns the talent to win at this level, especially against this type of field.

If/when that does happen, it might come at a venue where he can often leave driver in the bag, as his rank of 169^th off the tee this season underscores being 26^th on approach shots and 12^th with his putter. It might be too early to know whether El Cardonal is that course, but at what I think is a fair price on a board which doesn’t boast too many of ‘em, Ryder is certainly worth a play.

Pick: Sam Ryder Outright +7000

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World Wide Technology Championship One-and-Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Cameron Young (+1100)

A year ago, using Cameron Young in the fall portion of your OAD schedule might’ve seemed like a waste, but his star has lost a little luster ever since. That potentially means he’s just more valuable to you right now than later on.

His outright number is too short for me to get excited about, but I’ll want some investment in Young this week, and this feels like the perfect way to get a little piece. Just as Sahith Theegala’s breakthrough victory came during this part of the schedule, it might be even less of a surprise to see Young do it, too.

Stephan Jaeger (+2500)

I went all-in on Stephan Jaeger at the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier this month, and he responded with yet another top-30 finish – his 12^th in his last 19 starts.

Whether he likes it or not, Jaeger has developed into the prototypical floor play – what Charles Howell III was for years and what Maverick McNealy was before his latest injury – as those dozen top 30s have only been buoyed by a single top 10, and even that was only a T9.

If you’re seeking a set-it-and-forget-it type who won’t have you sweating a Friday cut line and should earn a nice check, Jaeger is the play.

Taylor Pendrith (+4500)

This one isn’t for the faint of heart. Taylor Pendrith had four finishes of 60^th or worse entering the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July, then he finished T14 there and solo sixth two weeks later at the Barbasol Championship.

Just when he gets back into our good graces, he misses four cuts in a row – and just when we cross him off the list, he finishes T3 at the Shriners.

The big Canadian hasn’t played since that one, and while we’re never quite sure which Pendrith will show up, we do know there’s a Pendrith who can undoubtedly contend for this title.

Vince Whaley (+7000)

For those in OADs who don’t want to “burn” a big-time player and/or don’t want to use the same guy as everyone else in the pool, kick the tires on Vince Whaley this week. After being largely invisible for the majority of this season, he’s gotten relatively hot here in the fall, with finishes of 25^th-28^th-13^th in three starts so far.

World Wide Technology Championship Placement Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

J.J. Spaun (+650 for Top-five Finish)

Fresh off a T6 in his most recent start at the Zozo Championship, J.J. Spaun now has a pair of top 10s (and a T11) in the time since his last MC. He’s either gained strokes with his irons or been at the exact field average in each of his last 15 starts, so if this one turns into a flushing contest, there are few better equipped to handle such a tournament as Spaun.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Cameron Champ (+500 for Top-10 Finish)

As I wrote a few weeks ago, I’m bullish on Cameron Champ for both short-term plays and (perhaps more importantly) long-term plays. His recent comments about being in a better headspace to deal with the recurring ups and downs of PGA Tour life should be reason for massive optimism, considering his innate natural abilities, the most obvious of which is his prodigious length off the tee.

Don’t be shocked to see him go the Si Woo Kim route, which is to say that he might not win the same rate of title contentions as he’s done in the past, but he should seriously close the gap between his ceiling and floor, becoming a more consistent player on a weekly basis.

With top-20 finishes in three of his last six starts, this could be another example of that growing on-course maturity.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Chris Gotterup (+230 for Top-20 Finish)

He finished “only” 23^rd on the Korn Ferry Tour points list this season, but ask those in the know, and they’ll list Chris Gotterup as perhaps the incoming rookie with the most PGA Tour potential right off the bat.

In fact, on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show Hitting the Green, I did ask someone in the know – veteran pro James Nitties, who now covers the KFT for various platforms – and Gotterup was indeed the first name he mentioned.

He’s already enjoyed some success at the highest level — just last season he made the cut in six of eight starts with a pair of top 10s and this season has made the cut in three of four.

Again, I’m chasing talent this week, and he has it. I don’t hate a small outright play, either.

Top 30

Two players to finish in the top 30

Tyler Duncan (+170 for Top-30 Finish) and Kevin Tway (+400 for Top-30 Finish)

We won’t know until the week progresses just how much of a factor the winds will be, though it’s safe to suggest they won’t be a nonfactor. Tyler Duncan and Kevin Tway are two players who seem to fare better in relation to the field when the breeze is blowing.

Top 40

Two players to finish in the top 40

Nate Lashley (+115 for Top-40 Finish) and Brice Garnett (+225 for Top-40 Finish)

Anytime the PGA Tour travels to a tropical locale, I’ll bump up Nate Lashley and Brice Garnett, each of whom has enjoyed some success on these types of tracks in the past.

World Wide Technology Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Ludvig Aberg

On the surface, the analysis for this one is pretty simple: Ludvig Aberg is the best player in the field, he’s riding a heater, and even his B-minus game could be enough to win this one. None of that is untrue, but there’s a reason to perhaps like him even a little more than usual.

On a new venue, where experience isn’t a factor, Aberg isn’t trying to play catch-up with his prep in relation to his fellow competitors. Starting with a level playing field could essentially give him an indirect advantage.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Erik Van Rooyen

I’ll go back to the well for this one, as I’ve been on Erik Van Rooyen for much of the fall, and he’s responded with some solid play.

Including a pair of DP World Tour events, he’s gone 8th-16th-30th-16th-23rd in his last five starts, which suggests that he could be rounding into the type of form that once had him ranked as high as 40th in the world. I like the trend to continue this week.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Harrison Endycott

When I hear about fast and firm conditions, I’ll often try to find an under-the-radar Aussie for the back end of my lineups, and Harrison Endycott is that Aussie this week. After missing the cut in five straight starts, he’s at least reached the weekend in his last two. If he does that again, everything else is gravy from this price point.

If you’re trying to get an Aberg or Young into your lineups and need to balance it out with a low-cost option, you can do a lot worse than this promising youngster.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Peter Kuest (+6600 for FRL)

The first-round leader at the Fortinet Championship was Lucas Herbert. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, it was Chesson Hadley. And at the Shriner’s Childrens Open, it was Beau Hossler.

All of which suggests that if you’re eating chalk for these autumnal FRL plays, you’re doing it wrong. I’ll take a chance this week on Peter Kuest, who’s shown he can go low at this level, with 14 of his 36 rounds this season at 68 or better and four below 66.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Beau Hossler (+3000)

I would expect Beau Hossler to be a popular outright selection this week – and at these odds, I really don’t blame anyone for going that route.

In fact, I’d be surprised if this number doesn’t shorten up from its initial listing. Hossler is currently playing the best golf of his career, backing up a T7 in Las Vegas with a share of runner-up honors in Japan two weeks ago.

While I don’t dislike the outright play, I do think there could be more value in playing him in head-to-heads against similarly priced players, such as Lucas Glover, Emiliano Grillo and Chris Kirk.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Thomas Detry (+3000), Keith Mitchell (+3500), Justin Suh (+4500), Doug Ghim (+5500), Erik Van Rooyen (+7000), Michael Kim (+7500), Doc Redman (+18000), Jason Dufner (+30000)

2023 WWT Championship Odds & Preview: Aberg & Young Favored in MexicoRead now