It's another week without Stat Tracker, so let's jump ahead to the first-round, head-to-head market using my pre-tournament data, which has been reformulated to mimic El Camaleon Golf Course.
Please note that any of the recalculations I mention are taking a projected outlook for the track since we don't have data points to look toward. However, we can sometimes gain our most considerable edge in that capacity because both books and bettors are working with a blank canvas of expectation.
With that idea in mind, let's see what my model is pinpointing as the best wager on the board Thursday.
If you aren't doing so already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf. That sheet is free and released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
J.T. Poston -110 over Cameron Champ (Bet365)
Expectations on a Slow Course
This is one of the two spots where my model gave J.T. Poston a significant enough edge to push this wager into playable territory.
Poston's two-year baseline on any random surface did expect him to be the 34th-best putter in the field if all things were equal, so the jump to eighth shows we have gotten a boost on these slow, methodical tests in the past.
Cameron Champ saw an increase himself, moving from 87th to 74th, but the high-end nature of Poston's anticipated growth became a significant separator when looking for value on the board.
The Difference Might be the 11 Par-4 Holes
Yes, Champ's ability on the three par-5s closed the gap from turning this into a runaway wager from a value sense, but the fact that 61% of the holes should give us an edge before a tee shot is ever struck was highly relevant in this situation. If we can avoid running on the wrong side of expected value during the lengthier setups, we should be able to close the gaps in other portions of the course.
The Bad For Both Comes Down to Iron Play
Just as the par-5s work in Champ's favor, the driver is the one neutralizer he brings to the table Thursday because each golfer has a propensity to struggle with their irons. Keep that in mind because it does add more boom-or-bust qualities to each.
Final Model Rank
Poston isn't a perfect head-to-head candidate and has flaws of his own, but I had an accurate price here closer to -140. I am going to take my 30-point edge and hope we can avoid Champ going nuclear with the driver early in his round.
