With the time difference and lack of data available after each round of the Zozo Championship, the PGA event near Tokyo has been difficult to track this week. But the long-term data suggests that the winner likely falls into one particular zone.
In the last 121 PGA events I have tracked, only one victor has landed 10th or worse on the leaderboard AND has been six or more shots out of the lead entering the final round (Sam Burns, 2022 Colonial). That would mean anyone 3-under par or higher would technically be eliminated from having a chance to capture the Zozo title on Sunday (Japan time, 11 p.m. ET Saturday).
When we add that to a filter of players landing outside the top half of my pre-event model who have gone on to win a given golf tournament (only two have) — which is slightly more demanding of an ask for this tournament because there are fewer than 80 players who have teed it up at the Zozo Championship — it presents the following list of golfers who have a realistic shot to walk out of Japan with the trophy.
We will talk a little more about why those seven players will or will not win in the section below, but please note that most of the research has been driven from information before the week started.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Looking to bet on golf? Use our bet365 bonus code and claim your bonus today!
Zozo Championship: Round 4
- When: Saturday
- Round starts: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Live TV coverage: Golf Channel (11 p.m. – 3 a.m. ET)
- Live stream: Peacock (11 p.m. – 3 a.m. ET)
Final-Round Handicap
1. Justin Suh (-9)
We essentially can retrieve three pieces of data at Narshino Country Club and are left in the dark outside of those features.
- Hitting distance
- Accuracy off the tee
- GIR percentage over three rounds
Those are components that will give us a little more than the basic answer of nothing, although I am so data-driven with my approach that it almost takes me out of the game completely when my model can't decipher more information.
I know that is a pessimistic take, but I don't want to express any true stance for a tournament devoid of tangible and concrete data.
I will say that Suh's GIR percentage ranks him 51st in this field over the opening three rounds, which tells me he has done a lot with his putter and short game. Those returns are typically not conducive to winning a golf event when the final-round pressure amplifies. This makes me think someone likely catches him in Round 4.
2. Eric Cole, Beau Hossler (-8)
Both players' profiles exceed what we have seen generated from Suh. My model placed each man inside the top 10 of at least one iteration of before a ball was even struck in Round 1, and the data from each has been significantly better for the limited numbers we have on file.
Cole should be a slight favorite over Hossler when looking at my model, but these are the two best win-equity choices inside my sheet.
4. Collin Morikawa (-7)
I've been saying all week that most in this field can't match Morikawa's best. It was why I placed a pre-tournament wager on him to end nearly a two-year drought, and it is why I have remained optimistic about his weighted proximity, GIR percentage, weighted scoring, experience and recent ball-striking carrying him back into the winner's circle.
I don't think getting past Cole and Hossler will be an easy task, but the data looks primed to give him a chance if he can make a few putts.
5. Emiliano Grillo (-5)
I wouldn't take Grillo's pre-tournament rank of 28th at face value since he was one of the highest climbers in my sheet when running this event for pure upside.
I'd place his likelihood below everyone we have talked about so far because of where he stands in comparison, but Grillo looks like he has been striking the ball as well as anyone.
8. Cameron Davis, J.J. Spaun (-4)
It remains to be seen if Spaun and Davis are a little too far back to win, but I didn't quite understand Davis' 67th-place distance return. If that number is accurate, it would mean he is playing far too cautiously for my liking.
I've always noted that his upside during these club-down tournaments will get enhanced for that reason, but it seems unlikely for him to make up five shots and jump past seven players unless he ramps up the aggression.
Both Spaun and Davis graded inside the top 10 for me pre-tournament, but they would need their very best to overcome the early deficit.
Names That Got Eliminated
We lost Satoshi Kodaira (-6), Kurt Kitayama (-5) and Ryo Ishikawa (-4) from options that could win because they landed outside the top half of my model pre-event and had returns that looked troubling. 
We will get back to a much better structure in these articles next time, but this week, no-data golf has its limitations.
