The PGA Tour is back with the fourth event of the FedExCup Fall — the Zozo Championship in Chiba, Japan.
With five par-3s and just three par-5s, Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club presents a unique challenge, and it also poses a challenge to gamblers this week as we don't have Strokes Gained data or a significant sample size of tournaments at the course (just three dating back to 2019) to train our models.
I'll be emphasizing long iron play and putting for my first round leader picks this week as I anticipate the first-round lead in the six-to-seven-under range as Narashino Country Club will be tougher to score on than the average PGA Tour course.
Be sure to get your first-round leader picks in before tee times in Japan start at 7:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday in the United States.
Find my Zozo Championship first-round leader picks and analysis below.
Zozo Championship 2023 FRL Picks
Taylor Moore +5500
First-Round Tee Time: 8:29 p.m. ET (Wednesday)
I like Taylor Moore in the first-round leader market because of his long iron proximity and his ability to get scorching hot with the putter.
Narashino Country Club presents a unique set of par-4s as five of the 10 are shorter than 425 yards, while the other five are longer than 485 yards. This means that long iron play will be important with so many challenging long par-4s.
Moore, who ranks in the top third of the PGA Tour in approach proximity from 175-200 yards (67th), 200-225 yards (64th) and 225-250 yards (34th), should give himself opportunities on these holes thanks to his strong mid and long iron play.
While Moore doesn’t have the elite birdie or better percentage rates that I normally look for in FRL bets, he has a putter that is capable of igniting at any given moment and is also strong around the greens. He ranks 28th in Strokes Gained: Putting on Tour this season but has shown that he can go on a tear with his putter, like he did when he gained nearly 10 strokes putting at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and RBC Heritage.
Moore also ranks second in this field, per my co-host on the Links + Locks Podcast Spencer Aguiar's model, in putting from 5-10 feet, so the Razorback should take advantage of these pure Bentgrass surfaces.
Moore short game is solid as he has gained strokes around the green this season on Tour and ranks 35th in scrambling, and it helps that his putter can be the ultimate get-out-of-jail free card.
Moore has only played at Narashino Country Club once, but he finished T12 in that lone appearance here last year, and without much to play for as someone who made it to the Tour Championship (in terms of next year's PGA Tour status), Moore has clearly circled this event on his calendar.
Moore isn’t as elite of a ball-striker as our second FRL pick, but his putting and long iron play give him a chance to go low at Narashino, and I’d bet him for first-round leader down to +5000.
Adam Schenk +3500
First-Round Tee Time: 8:18 p.m. ET (Wednesday)
If I could only bet one first-round leader this week, it would be Adam Schenk.
While Schenk also doesn’t have an elite Birdie or Better Rate (it’s actually below the Tour average), he has a high Par-3 Birdie or Better Rate at just over 15% (34th) and is 15th in Par-3 Scoring Average, which is key because Narashino Country Club has five par-3s.
Schenk is also a strong long iron player and putter – just like Moore, which is why both finished first and second at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) for the Valspar Championship. Schenk is 35th on Tour this season in proximity from over 200 yards, 47th overall in SG: Approach and 35th in SG: Putting.
Like Moore, Schenk is also sneaky long and has a strong short game as both rank in the top quarter of this Zozo Championship field in both Driving Distance and Scrambling.
Despite ranking in the top 30 (T9) in the FedExCup Points List (which means he doesn’t need to play in FedExCup Fall events to improve his standing on Tour for next season), Schenk is making the trip to Japan because this course suits his eye. He’s played at Narashino Country Club in all three times it has hosted the Zozo Championship, and he’s finished in the top 30 all three times.
I believe Schenk heads to the land of the rising sun this week as a much better golfer than he has been in years past, and I love the chance of betting him at +4000 or better in the FRL market as a result.
