The Kentucky Derby has not been kind to longshots. The betting favorite has won the last six Run for the Roses and, as my colleague John Ewing points out, playing the chalk has actually been a profitable strategy for the Derby.
The top choices will likely be involved in the finish this Saturday as well, but just because we have favorites at the top of our tickets doesn't mean we can't still have some fun with some longer shots in exotics to try and make a big score.
BlackJack's 2019 Kentucky Derby Exotics Guide
Trifecta Box
I like No. 16 Game Winner (5-1) on top in this race. Without Omaha Beach, he is the class of the field.
Game Winner was the 2-year-old champion and had a brilliant campaign last year that culminated with a win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November.
He lost twice this year, but you can argue he was more impressive in those runs than he was in his wins. He was nosed out by Omaha Beach in the Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track and then was barely beaten by Roadster at the Santa Anita Derby after an awful trip. I'm going to include him in all of my exotics.
I think there's a lot of value with No. 8 Tacitus (10-1), who is coming off an impressive performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Even though Tacitus has not faced stiff competition, he is the son of Tapit, one of the most accomplished sires in all the country. I think Tacitus is great value to hit the board.
The third horse in my trifecta is No. 3 By My Standards (20-1), who was a slow starter as a 2-year-old but hit his stride in a win at the Louisiana Derby. His running style may be well-suited for this field as I expect a slower pace without Omaha Beach. At 20-1, he is worth a shot.
Superfecta Boxes
This is the place to take a shot on some real prices. Superfectas are inexpensive bets to make: You pick four horses and if they finish 1-2-3-4 (since you're boxing the bet, any order wins) you will hit a big payday.
I'll be using No. 3 By My Standards, No. 8 Tacitus and No. 16 Game Winner again on these tickets, but will be adding Bob Baffert's other entrants, No. 5 Improbable (6-1) and No. 17 Roadster (6-1), in a couple of plays.
I also am going to use two longshots No. 2 Tax (20-1) and No. 18 Long Range Toddy (30-1) because the odds are just too good to pass up.
Here are the three Superfecta Boxes I'm playing on Derby Day.
- 16, 8, 3, 17
- 16, 17, 8, 6
- 16, 5, 18, 2
Everyone grab a mint julep, throw on a silly hat and enjoy one of the best days on the sports calendar.
