The 2019 Kentucky Derby is today. At The Action Network, this is basically our Super Bowl. Aside from the Super Bowl. (And March Madness.)
I know nothing about horses — but there's no way I'm not going to have at least a little action on the race, right?
Perusing all of the Kentucky Derby props on the market, I've found one that I think I can safely bet even though my equestrian knowledge is minimal.
Will Secretariat's Record of 1:59:40 Be Broken?
- Yes: +1000
- No: -2500
I'm a pessimistic curmudgeon who's going to bet against history being made almost any chance I get.
Based on my extensive research — I just looked at the Kentucky Derby Wikipedia page for about 15 seconds — I've noticed a few key points.
First, the race has been in existence since 1875: I'm doubtful that any horse this year will be able to do better than the best horse to run this race over the past 144 years.
Second, Secretariat has a dominant time. The closest any horse has come to breaking the record was in 2001, when Monarchos won with a time of 1:59:97. That's more than a half-second slower than Secretariat. In a horse race, that seems like a massive difference.
Third, all of the best times at the Kentucky Derby have come in fast track conditions. Today the forecast calls for rain: We should expect a sloppy, muddy track. The fastest a winner has ever run in sloppy conditions is 2:02:66 (Mine That Bird, 2009).
Finally, in all The Action Network coverage I've read of the event, no one has talked about any particular horse as if it has a real chance to be one of the greatest of all time.
Favorites tend to be undervalued, but there's no big favorite in the field. It's hard to imagine a relatively unheralded favorite breaking one of the most impressive records ever.
At -2500, there's a 96.2% implied probability that Secretariat's record won't be broken, but the true odds are likely closer to 99%.
I'd bet "No" all the way down to -3000.
The Pick: No (-2500)
