The biggest weekend in horse racing is upon us: the Breeders' Cup. It’s a two day, 14-race event that finishes with the $6M Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday at 5:40 p.m. ET.
For the youngsters on Friday, it looks like we will have a stunning fall day at the iconic Keeneland racecourse. With an action packed 10-race card, the Breeders' Cup races start in Race 6. Television coverage starts at 2 p.m. ET on USA Network.
Here are my thoughts and picks for Friday’s action.
Ready to place your bets on the 2022 Breeders' Cup? Head over to TwinSpires now!
Race 6:
The Pick: #2 Love Reigns (4-1) is trained by Wesley Ward, who has won the last three installments of this race. His winners seem to follow the same pattern: break their maiden stateside, ship overseas to run in group company and then ship back to a freshening before winning this race. Love Reigns has followed that exact pattern and appears to come into this contest in great form.
Underneath: #5 Mischief Magic (8-1) is the dangerous closer in this race. He had won three straight before finishing fourth in his last time out. There is plenty of pace; the question will be if he can work out the trip. Trainer Charlie Appleby always has his horses ready to fire when they ship to the US, especially the two-year-olds, which he is a perfect 4-for-4 with.
#12 The Platinum Queen (7-2) is coming in off a win in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye. Not only has she proven she can beat the boys, but also that she can beat older horses in Group 1 company. She enters in great form and is extremely consistent, having won four of her seven career starts.
Race 7:
The Pick: #7 Chop Chop (4-1) didn’t break well in her last start, which left her with traffic to deal with and a lot of ground to make up. She was able to navigate the traffic and was flying late, but just had too much to do. The break will be key so that she doesn’t have as much ground to make up. This will be her second dirt start, so she should move forward off that last effort.
Underneath: #10 Chocolate Gelato (7-2) was hung in the stretch in her first start. She came back and romped to an eight-plus length win the next time out. Trainer Todd Pletcher was on fire during the fall Keeneland meet and is looking to continue that hot streak this weekend.
#14 Raging Sea (8-1) showed her inexperience in the stretch last time out. With the added experience, she can definitely take a step forward and if it wasn’t for her outside post position, she would be a much shorter price.
Race 8:
The Pick: #5 Pleasant Passage (12-1) has won both of her starts. She’s also shown two different running styles, running over both firm and yielding turf courses. She’s fired two consecutive bullet works in preparation for this spot, letting us know she’s ready, and she also keeps one of the world's best jockeys in Irad Ortiz.
Underneath: #10 Meditate (4-1) ships over for trainer Aidan O’Brien. She rattled off four wins to start her career before finishing second to two of the top fillies overseas in her past two races. Had she won either of those starts, she probably would have been 5-2 on the morning line. Regardless, she’s the morning line favorite. Meditate will be forwardly placed, but will have to contend with numerous others for the early lead.
#4 Free Look (5-1) looks to turn the tables on Pleasant Passage after finishing second when they faced off last time out. You can argue that the yielding turf course was the reason Free Look wasn’t able to prevail. If she’s able to run a similar race, she could very well sit in an ideal stalking position before making her move coming out of the turn.
Ready to place your bets on the 2022 Breeders' Cup? Head over to TwinSpires now!
Race 9:
The Pick: #4 Forte (4-1) comes in off two consecutive wins, the most recent being right here at Keeneland at this distance, which is important to note because of the short stretch. His only loss came over the summer at Saratoga. He’s also paired up his past two Beyer speed figures, which means he’s either going to pop to a new high or regress. In order to beat the heavy favorite here, he will need to move forward.
Underneath: #3 Cave Rock (4-5) has absolutely dominated his competition and is a perfect 3-for-3 heading into this race. He has shown great early speed and an even better kick coming for home. His stablemate, #10 National Treasure, puts blinkers on, signifying that he may try to pressure Cave Rock early. That will need to happen in order for Forte to win.
#8 Lost Ark (20-1) ran into significant trouble in his last start after having to steady early and then check again late. If you erase that last effort, he was dominant in his first two starts, though they didn’t come back with great Beyers.
Race 10:
The Pick: #8 I’m Very Busy (9-2) looked like he was the winner after exploding coming out of the turn last time out, only to get beat by a very game #13 Major Dude. It is important to note I’m Very Busy had to deal with a tough trip and a yielding turf course.
He won’t have to deal with the yielding turf course this time, as it looks to be a beautiful day at Keeneland, and even if he were to deal with some traffic, his turn of foot is so strong that he should still win. He’s paired his Beyer speed figures, so look for a new top and a big effort from this Chad Brown trainee.
Underneath: #4 Silver Knott (3-1) is another Charlie Appleby two-year-old trainee. As mentioned earlier, Appleby is a perfect 4-for-4 when shipping over with two-year-olds and has won this race three times in the past nine years. Silver Knott showed a great turn of foot in his win last time out.
Bets:
R6:
Win: #2 Love Reigns
Exacta Box: 2, 5, 12
Pick 5: 2, 5, 12 w/7, 10, 14 w/4, 5, 10 w/3, 4, 8 w/4, 8
R8:
Win: #5 Pleasant Passage
Exacta Box: 4, 5, 10
R9:
Double: 4 w/ 4, 8
R10:
Win: #8 I’m Very Busy
Ready to place your bets on the 2022 Breeders' Cup? Head over to TwinSpires now!
