Our journey on the road to the Kentucky Derby continues Saturday, with another big prep race taking place at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., via the $750,000 Grade III Southwest Stakes.
We had a huge upset in last week's Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, with longshot Call Me Midnight rallying from off the pace to pick up the victory and 10 Derby qualifying points.
Handicapper Jeremy Pond takes a look at the Southwest field, featuring 12 contenders, and delivers his best bets, as well as on some exotic wagers — including Late Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets — to close out the loaded card.
2022 Southwest Stakes (Grade III) Odds
*Latest Odds via TVG
| PP | HORSE | ODDS (MORNING LINE) | JOCKEY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 — Ben Diesel | 10-1 | Jon Court |
| 2 — Dash Attack | 7-2 | David Cohen |
| 3 — Don'tcrossthedevil | 30-1 | Ramon Vazquez |
| 4 — Kavod | 12-1 | Francisco Arrieta |
| 5 — Costa Terra | 12-1 | Tiago Pereira |
| 6 — Osbourne | 8-1 | David Cabrera |
| 7 — Ignitis | 8-1 | Luis Contreras |
| 8 — Barber Road | 5-1 | Ricardo Santana, Jr. |
| 9 — Classic Moment | 12-1 | Martin Garcia |
| 10 — Newgrange | 2-1 | John Velazquez |
| 11 — Call Me Jamal | 30-1 | Geovanni Franco |
| 12 — Vivar | 12-1 | Florent Geroux |
Race Information
Date | Post Time: Saturday | 5:22 p.m. ET
Distance | Surface: 1 1/16 miles | Dirt
Location: Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Ark.
Southwest Top Picks & Longshots
No. 10 Newgrange (2-1): The deserved favorite. Trainer Bob Baffert sends out the son of Violence and Bella Chianti (by Empire Maker), who's looking for his third win in as many career starts.
Newgrange was impressive taking the Sham Stakes (G3) on New Year's Day at Santa Anita Park, but the horse remains ineligible to pick up any points due to Baffert's horses being banned from running in the Derby after his suspension. Regardless, he's still the horse to beat with John Velazquez in the saddle.
No. 8 Barber Road (5-1): Finished a valiant second in the Smarty Jones after getting a brutal trip. Trainer John Ortiz has his charge training well ahead of this race, plus he gets the added bonus of pilot Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard.
Live contender at solid odds.
Longshot — No. 6 Osbourne (8-1): The Springboard Mile runner-up at Remington Park seems primed for a big effort, which will be the fourth career start. Osbourne, who gets David Cabrera aboard, won his first race in style in a Maiden Special Weight event in November at Churchill Downs.
We had a downright brutal pace meltdown in the Lecomte and it wouldn't surprise me if Osbourne was the one picking up the pieces if something similar happens here. A must-use longshot in all exotic wagering.
Pond's Best Bets:
$10 Win | Place | Show: No. 10 Newgrange (2-1)
$4 Exacta: 8-10 over 1-2-6-7-8-9-10
$1.50 Trifecta: 8-10 over 1-2-6-8-10 over 1-2-4-5-6-7-8-9-10
Exotic Wagering
Late Pick 4 (Races 8 | 9 | 10 | 11)
Wager: $0.50
Picks
Race 8: 1-7-8-9
Race 9: 2-6-8-10
Race 10: 1-4-6-7
Race 11: 3-4-7-8-13
Note: The No. 13 entry in Race 11 is on the Also-Eligible list, which means he will likely compete if another horse is scratched.
Late Pick 5 (Races 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11)
Wager: $0.50
Picks
Race 7: 2-5-7-8-10
Race 8: 1-7-8-9
Race 9: 2-6-8-10
Race 10: 1-4-6-7
Race 11: 3-4-7-8-13
Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby
| DATE | STAKES RACE (GRADE) | TRACK (POINTS) OR WINNER |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 22 | Lecomte (Grade III) | Call Me Midnight |
| Jan. 29 | Southwest (III) | Oaklawn Park (10-4-2-1) |
| Feb. 5 | Holy Bull (III) | Gulfstream Park (10-4-2-1) |
| Feb. 5 | Robert B. Lewis (III) | Santa Anita Park (10-4-2-1) |
| Feb. 5 | Sam F. Davis (III) | Tampa Bay Downs (10-4-2-1) |
| Feb. 12 | Withers (III) | Aqueduct (10-4-2-1) |
| Feb. 19 | El Camino Real Derby | Golden Gate Fields (10-4-2-1) |
| Feb. 19 | Risen Star (III) | Fair Grounds (50-20-10-5) |
| Feb. 26 | Rebel (II) | Oaklawn Park (50-20-10-5) |
| March 5 | John Battaglia Memorial | Turfway Park (10-4-2-1) |
| March 5 | Fountain of Youth (II) | Gulfstream Park (50-20-10-5) |
| March 5 | San Felipe (II) | Santa Anita Park (50-20-10-5) |
| March 12 | Gotham (II) | Aqueduct (50-20-10-5) |
| March 12 | Tampa Bay Derby (II) | Tampa Bay Downs (50-20-10-5) |
| March 26 | UAE Derby | Meydan Racecourse (100-40-20-10) |
| March 26 | Louisiana Derby (II) | Louisiana Downs (100-40-20-10) |
| March 27 | Sunland Derby (III) | Sunland Park (50-20-10-5) |
| April 2 | Florida Derby (I) | Gulfstream Park (100-40-20-10) |
| April 2 | Arkansas Derby (I) | Oaklawn Park (100-40-20-10) |
| April 2 | Jeff Ruby Steaks (III) | Turfway Park (100-40-20-10) |
| April 9 | Wood Memorial (II) | Aqueduct (100-40-20-10) |
| April 9 | Blue Grass (II) | Keeneland (100-40-20-10) |
| April 9 | Santa Anita Derby (I) | Santa Anita Park (100-40-20-10) |
| April 16 | Lexington (III) | Keeneland (100-40-20-10) |
