We have finally reached the fun, thrilling moments of Kentucky Derby weekend in the world of thoroughbred horse racing.
Things kick off Friday with a scintillating, 11-race program at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., with seven stakes races taking center stage. The featured race of the day is the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks, with 14 talented 3-year-old fillies set to leave the starting gate for the Grade 1 event.
Action Network handicapper Mike Conti has broken down every stakes race, delivering his top picks and exotic wagers on the first set of races in a busy two-day extravaganza in the heartland of North American horse racing.
So, let's take a look at where he's landed with his favorite bets.
2022 Kentucky Oaks Day Picks
*(Races 5-11)
Race 5 — Modesty Stakes
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles
Surface: Turf
Post Time: 12:43 p.m. ET
Top Pick
No. 8 Bleecker Street (9-5) is unbeaten in five starts for trainer Chad Brown. You know what you’re going to get from her each and every time. She will take back early and make her big run coming for home. With the potential rain in the forecast, she’s also proven over a good turf course.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 6 Hendy Woods (5-1) was caught wide the entire time in her last start and needed the freshening after being on the bench for five months. She’s been training well leading up to this race and if she can get back to her form from a year ago, she stands a chance.
No. 4 She Can’t Sing (8-1) is coming in off two consecutive wins, albeit against lesser company than what she’s going up against here. She’s continued to improve throughout the 2022 campaign and the added 16th of a mile shouldn’t be a problem with her running style. She Can’t Sing should get the jump on the closers with her stalking approach, but the question is whether or not she can hold off Bleecker Street.
Conti's Bets: Win — No. 8 Bleecker Street
Race 6 — La Troienne Stakes
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 1:26 p.m. ET
Top Pick
No. 6 Pauline’s Pearl (2-1) just missed last time out in the Grade 2 Azeri, when she out-finished rival No. 2 Shedaresthedevil (6-5) in the race. Pauline’s Pearl has shown versatility in being able to sit a stalking trip or come from further back like that last start. She hasn’t missed the board in nine starts at this distance, proving she’s ultra-consistent if anything.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 2 Shedaresthedevil (6-5) is a perfect 5 for 5 over the Churchill Downs track. She might have needed that last race and it doesn’t appear she will have as much early pressure in here. Look for her to take this field gate to wire.
Conti's Bets: Pass
Race 7 — Alysheba Stakes
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 2:09 p.m. ET
The Pick
No. 5 Olympiad (9-5) is coming in off three consecutive wins, all of which produced 100-plus Beyer Speed figures. He is also a perfect 2 for 2 at the distance. He’s simply the one to beat and if we get anywhere near the morning-line odds, I will be making a large win bet.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 7 Happy Saver (7-2) has been an ultra consistent horse, hitting the board in all eight career starts. Although he’s coming in off a five-plus-month layoff, he’s been training well and trainer Todd Pletcher wins at 19% off the bench. He also gets reunited with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who has been in the saddle for four of his five career victories.
Conti's Bets: Win — No. 5 Olympiad
Pick 3 — 5 | 5 | 6,8
Pick 5 — 5,7 | 5 | 6,8 | 9,10 | 1,4,7,10
Race 8 — Edgewood Stakes
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Surface: Turf
Post Time: 3:03 p.m. ET
Top Pick
No. 5 Dolce Zel (5-2) has proven she can win over less than a firm turf course, which we will likely have with the impending rain. She’s also one of two horses in this field who has won against graded-stakes company. Brown and Ortiz Jr. always seem to team up for multiple wins on the biggest days and this girl fits the mold.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 2 My Philly Twirl (10-1) is interesting at a price. There doesn’t seem to be much speed on paper and she could go out to the lead, then not look back. She’s won all three starts as a 3-year-old, facing tougher competition in each of those starts, but this will be the hardest test of her young career.
Conti's Bets: Win — No. 5 Dolce Zel
Pick 3: 5 | 6,8 | 9,10
Race 9 — Eight Belles Stakes
Distance: 7 Furlongs Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 4:04 p.m. ET
Top Pick
No. 8 Matareya (5-2) has romped in both of her starts as a 3-year-old and only looks to be getting better. She’s shown versatility being able to go gate to wire and the ability to sit just off the pace. Flavien Prat, one of the nation's hottest jockeys set to ride favorite Zandon in the Kentucky Derby, keeps the mount.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 6 Gerrymander (6-1) is making the first start of her 3-year-old campaign, coming in off a six-month layoff. She was thought to be a top 3-year-old contender and has faced some of the best this crop has to offer.
In her last start, not only did she dig deep and finish strong for the win, she was able to fend off the Oaks favorite Nest. She’s training well entering this spot, and coming out of the Brown barn, the layoff shouldn’t be much of a concern.
Conti's Bets: Exacta Box — 6 & 8
Race 10 — Twin Spires Turf Sprint
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs
Surface: Turf
Post Time: 4:51 p.m. ET
Top Pick
No. 10 Arrest Me Red (4-1) will be making the second start of his four-year season for trainer Wesley Ward. He finished a closing third, between horses, as the even-money favorite his last time out. His outside post position should allow him to sit off the speed and make his run to get up in the last jumps at a square price.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 9 Pyron (6-1) has seemed to relish on the turf course, finishing third two starts back and first last time out. It appears this old boy has found his stride on the turf as those last two outings generated his best Beyer Speed figures, regardless of surface. With his closing style, the pace in this race will only benefit him as he will be flying late.
Conti's Bets: Win — No. 10 Arrest Me Red
Race 11 — Longines Kentucky Oaks
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 5:51 p.m. ET
Top Pick
No. 1 Secret Oath (6-1) faced the boys last time out in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. She ran a good third after a troubled trip and could never straighten up in the stretch, which if she had, she might have won. Since then, she’s put in a couple of really strong works, indicating she’s ready for this tough field.
Live Contenders for Exotic Wagering
No. 4 Nest (5-2) has continued to progress as 3-year-old, putting up her two best Beyer Speed figures. While this is the toughest, deepest field she has faced in her career, she definitely has the ability to win. Nest also has a win over a fast, wet track, which I suspect we will have based on the forecast.
No. 7 Echo Zulu (4-1) is the only undefeated horse in the field, sitting at a perfect 5 for 5 in her career. She’s done nothing wrong, but didn’t look her best last time out, which was also her first start as a 3-year-old. The question remains is if she is going to progress or have we already seen the best of her.
No. 10 Kathleen O. (7-2) is an absolute monster and the most physically dominate horse in the field. She put up a huge number last time out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. That said, this is by far the toughest group she’s faced in her career. That and her price are the reasons she’s not higher on my list.
On a positive note, jockey Javier Castellano has returned to his Hall of Fame form of late.
Conti's Bets: Win — No. 1 Secret Oath
Exacta: 1 over 4 | 7 | 10
2022 Kentucky Oaks Odds
| POST POSITION | HORSE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Secret Oath | 6-1 |
| 2 | Nostalgic | 15-1 |
| 3 | Hidden Connection | 10-1 |
| 4 | Nest | 5-2 |
| 5 | Goddess of Fire | 15-1 |
| 6 | Yuugiri | 30-1 |
| 7 | Echo Zulu | 4-1 |
| 8 | Venti Valentine | 20-1 |
| 9 | Desert Dawn | 20-1 |
| 10 | Kathleen O. | 7-2 |
| 11 | Cocktail Moments | 30-1 |
| 12 | Candy Raid | 30-1 |
| 13 | Shahama | 15-1 |
| 14 | Turnerloose | 20-1 |
