2024 Belmont Stakes Odds, Best Bets: Expert Picks to Win, Exactas, Trifectas, Superfecta

Odds via TwinSpires.

2024 Belmont Stakes Picks, Best Bets

Picks to Win:
No. 9 Sierra Leone and No. 10 Mindframe
Long Shot Bet:
No. 5 Antiquarian
Exactas:
5 | 9
5 | 3,10
9,10 | 2,8
Trifectas:
9,10 | 2,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10
9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 | 2,8,9,10
Superfecta:
9,10 | 2,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10

The 2024 Belmont Stakes is here, and that means it's time for our horse racing experts to break down the latest Belmont Stakes odds and their best bets for the conclusion of this year's Triple Crown! If you're looking for how to bet the Belmont, you're in a whole lot of luck, as our experts have picks to win, exactas, trifectas and a superfecta just for fun.

And of course, there's a twist for the 156th running of the last leg of this year's horse racing Triple Crown. Because of a major renovation to upgrade Belmont Park, this year's Belmont will come to you live from Saratoga Springs, N.Y., at the lovely Saratoga Race Course. That means this year's Belmont, which will start at 6:41 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX, FOX Sports 1 and FOX Sports 2 and feature some of the world's best 3-year-old horses with a $2 million purse up for grabs, will be a 1.25-mile race instead of the traditional 1.5 miles. It's just something to keep in mind as we dive into our Belmont preview.

The weather forecast still has a 20% chance of rain at Saratoga, after a very light shower at the race track earlier in the day. The sun has been coming out this afternoon, however. The other weather-based factor for the Belmont is the wind, which is reportedly blowing right up the stretch.

As for the odds to win the Belmont, neither the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan, nor the 2024 Preakness Stakes winner, Seize the Grey, is the favorite in the latest Belmont odds or on the opening morning line. Instead, No. 9 Sierra Leone is the betting favorite at 9-5 on the morning line, followed by the No. 10 Mindframe at 7-2. Mystik Dan is 5-1, while Seize the Grey is 8-1.

Now that we're up to speed, let's get to our 2024 Belmont Stakes picks and predictions from our horse racing experts, Sean Zerillo and Mike Conti.

2024 Belmont Stakes Picks to Win

No. 9 Sierra Leone (9-5), No. 10 Mindframe (7-2)

Zerillo: My top two win contenders for the Belmont Stakes, the No. 9 Sierra Leone and the No. 10 Mindframe, are the two shortest odds on the morning line. But given the fact that you have Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey in this field, your Derby winner and your Preakness winner, I do expect those horses to get bet down, and think these four horses ultimately will take the most money and be pretty close in odds at the end of the day.

So I think you may find more value on Sierra Leone and/or Mindframe than you do relative to their morning line odds. But I also think Sierra Leone in particular is going to get a better pay setup and also face less traffic than he did in the Kentucky Derby, which were my main concerns with him going into the Derby. He overcame all of those things and still ran an incredible second-place finish. He arguably ran better than Mystik Dan, who had a bit of an easier trip on the inside path along the rail there, but he's getting an equipment change here, too.

Sierra Leone has tended to veer out in the stretch in past races, but they made a change to his equipment that they're hopeful will get him to correct that issue and actually run straight in the stretch and maybe run the best race of his career. So, I think he's the likeliest winner. I think he gets the pace setup that he needs — but I think Mindframe has the most long-term potential of any of the horses in this field and also has the most potential to make a significant jump.

In terms of his speed figures, he has the highest speed figure in this field, but hasn't run against graded stakes competition. This is just his third lifetime start. He's very green, very inexperienced, but Mindframe looks like a potential freak in this class of 3-year-olds and potentially looks like the most talented 3-year-old of the bunch.

I'm going to be playing multiple horizontal wagers. Pick 3s, Pick 4s, Pick 5s, maybe even the Pick 6. And I'll be using Sierra Leone, the No. 9, and Mindframe, the No. 10 as my two win contenders for the Belmont Stakes.

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2024 Belmont Stakes Long Shot Bet

No. 5 Antiquarian (12-1)

Conti: I'm going with a little bit of a long shot as my top selection: No. 5, Antiquarian, at 12-1 on the morning line.

Antiquarian won the Peter Pan, the same race Arcangelo won last year before coming out and winning the Belmont. Now, there are two big differences. This year's Peter Pan was run at Aqueduct Race Track, because Belmont's closed, and this year's Belmont is being run at Saratoga.

That being said, I love Antiquarian's running style. He's a relatively lightly-raced horse, with only four career starts. He's paired his last two Beyer speed figures, and so I expect him to be able to take a pretty significant jump up from speed figure perspective. I kind of put a line through and discount the recent race in the Louisiana Derby for him, where he underperformed. He ended up finishing sixth, but he broke through the gate. Any time a horse breaks through the gate, they have to expend so much energy in order to do so. I never like a horse that does that. You draw a line through that, and what you have left is an ultra-competitive horse who has a stalking style, which I think is going to be key in this race, being more forwardly placed without being on the lead.

So No. 5 Antiquarian is going to be my top selection.

2024 Belmont Stakes Exactas

9,10 | 2,8: No. 9 Sierra Leone and No. 10 Mindframe OVER No. 2 Resilience and No. 8 Honor Marie

Zerillo: In terms of the exacta, if you just want one ticket, you're playing an exacta key, the No. 9 or the No. 10 on top of the No. 2 or the No. 8. That's my top two win selections, Sierra Leone and Mindframe, on top of my top two long shots, Resilience and Honor Marie.

You want one of those top two win contenders finishing first, and you want one of those longer shots finishing second, instead of pairing up the two potential win contenders in first and second. I just don't think you're going to get enough value there if you go 9,10 | 9,10.

So you could play the key, the No. 9 and No. 10 on top of the No. 2 and No. 8. You could also break those up into individual tickets. You could play the 9 | 8, you could play the 10 | 8, you could play the 9 | 2, and you could play the 10 | 2, all cold exactas, and you could structure them accordingly based on your risk tolerance or the "will pays" for those respective bets.

5 | 9: No. 5 Antiquarian OVER No. 9 Sierra Leone
5 | 3,10: No. 5 Antiquarian OVER No. 3 Mystik Dan and No. 10 Mindframe

Conti: As I said, my top choice in the Belmont Stakes is going to be the No. 5, and I'm going to play two different exactas to try to extract value. Obviously, I can't win both, but it's more about extracting value out of the race.

I'm going to play Antiquarian on top, then I'm going to play one exacta, where I play the No. 5 over the N0. 9 Sierra Leone. I'll play another exacta where I play Antiquarian on top of the No. 3 Mystik Dan and the No. 10 Mindframe. I think Mystik Dan will come down a little bit in odds, so I expect Mindframe and Mystic Dan to be fairly close in terms of the odds. I'll play that exacta for a little bit less because the payout will be greater than the 5 | 9 exacta.

Saturday also offers up a full slate of UFC betting. If you're looking to expand your betting card, check out how we're betting the UFC Louisville main event, courtesy of the very same Sean Zerillo!

2024 Belmont Stakes Trifectas

9,10 | 2,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10: No. 9 Sierra Leone and No. 10 Mindframe OVER No. 2 Resilience, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 and No. 10 OVER No. 1 Seize the Grey, No. 2, No. 3 Mystik Dan, No. 5 Antiquarian, No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10

9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 | 2,8,9,10: No. 9 Sierra Leone and No. 10 Mindframe OVER No. 1 Seize the Grey, No. 2 Resilience, No. 3 Mystik Dan, No. 5 Antiquarian, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 and No. 10 OVER No. 2, No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10

Zerillo: If we're expanding out to the trifecta, you can take our top four horses — the No. 2, 8, 9 and 10 — and you can add in the No. 5 Antiquarian, who I also like and who is Conti's top selection, and you could put those five horses in a trifecta box. A $1 ticket will cost you $60.

Now, you could do that, but I'd prefer to structure it a little bit more, because, as I said, the No. 9 and 10 are my top two win selections, and I don't really give as much credit to the other horses having as big chance of winning this race. So, what I'm going to do is put the No. 9 or 10 on line one, that's Sierra Leone and Mindframe.

We're going to put the four horses that I mentioned before, my top two win selections and the top two long shots — the 2, 8, 9 and 10 — on line two.

And then on the third line, we could expand out, spread out a little bit more. We can include the No. 1 Seize the Grey, we can include the No. 5 Antiquarian, we can include the No. 3 Mystik Dan. So we get expanded out to the 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 on the third line, and that ticket is only going to cost you $30, whereas that exacta box we mentioned to start costs you $60.

What you can then do is flip the second and third lines, so you build another ticket for $30 where you flip those second and third lines around. If the four horses that we like, if they run in the top three, you're going to cash both of those tickets instead of that one trifecta box. So a little bit way of playing it with some structure that lets you play the same ticket twice and use your top horses twice and gives you more options to use underneath. Thinking about playing horses in a bit more of a structured manner gives you more options.

2024 Belmont Stakes Superfecta

9,10 | 2,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10| 1,2,3,5,8,9,10: No. 9 Sierra Leone and No. 10 Mindframe OVER No. 2 Resilience, No. 8 Honor Marie, No. 9 and No. 10 OVER No. 1 Seize the Grey, No. 2, No. 3 Mystik Dan, No. 5 Antiquarian, No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10 OVER No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 5 , No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10

Editor's note: If you want the ultimate lottery ticket for Saturday's race, we'll be playing the first trifecta from Zerillo with the third line repeated on the fourth line. A $0.50 superfecta with that rather thorough selection of horses will cost you $60 for what could be quite a hefty payout if we win. You can also scale that down and play a $0.10 superfecta for $12.

We probably won't win, of course, since superfectas are such incredible longshots. But as long as you know the risk and understand that this is simply for fun and entertainment, this is our play for the Belmont.

2024 Belmont Stakes Picks, Best Bets

Picks to Win:
No. 9 Sierra Leone and No. 10 Mindframe
Long Shot Bet:
No. 5 Antiquarian
Exactas:
5 | 9
5 | 3,10
9,10 | 2,8
Trifectas:
9,10 | 2,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10
9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 | 2,8,9,10
Superfecta:
9,10 | 2,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 | 1,2,3,5,8,9,10