Breeders' Cup Predictions, Best Bets: Picks for Friday's Races
It's race day! So let's get to our 2023 Breeders' Cup predictions: the best bets and expert picks for Friday's main races.
From outright winners to Pick 3s and even a Pick 5 across the board, our top horse racing expert is here to share his best Breeders' Cup bets for Friday.
Race 5: To Win — No. 9 Admist Waves
Race 5: Pick 5 — 1,4,9 | 1,7,12 | 7,8,12 | 1,4,10 | 7,10
Race 5: Pick 3 — 1,4,9 | 1,12 | 7,8,12
Race 6: To Win — No. 12 Just F Y I
Race 6: Pick 3 — 1,12 | 7,8,12 | 1,4,10
Race 7: To Win — No. 12 Hard to Justify (BEST BET OF THE DAY)
Race 7: Pick 3 — 12 | 1,4,10 | 7,10
Race 8: To Win — No. 10 Muth
2023 Breeders' Cup Predictions, Picks for Friday
Race 5 — Juvenile Turf Sprint
Distance: 5 Furlongs
Surface: Turf
Purse: $1,000,000
Post Time: 5 p.m. ET
The Pick: No. 9 Amidst Waves (8-1) has been very professional in each start. She just missed last time out, but had some traffic trouble in the lane. Her closing kick should fare well in a field full of speed.
Live Contenders:
No. 1 Crimson Advocate (4-1) comes in off a 4 1/2-month layoff after winning a group in Ascot. She boasts the highest Beyer speed figure in the race – an 88 in her win against non-graded stakes company at Gulfstream Park.
No. 4 Big Evs (3-1) is one of the Europeans in this race and is quick out of the gate. Similar to Crimson Advocate, Big Evs has the highest Timeform speed rating from his last race.
Race 6 — Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $2,000,000
Post Time: 5:40 p.m. ET
The Pick: No. 12 Just F Y I (8-1) is a perfect 2-for-2 in her career. Trainer Bill Mott always seems to spot his horses well, especially in graded-stakes races, where he wins at a 26% clip.
Live Contenders:
No. 1 Candied (4-1) has a very similar resume to Just F Y I. She is 2-for-2, winning a Grade 1 in her second start and doing so impressively. Her Beyer Speed figure came back even stronger than Just F Y I’s, which is one of the reasons she’s half the price. Trainer Todd Pletcher is one of the best, but he’s never won this race.
No. 7 Tamara (4-5) is the daughter of Beholder, a legendary race horse. Tamara looks and runs just like her mother. She has an identical resume to both Just F Y I and Candied, but boasts the highest Beyer speed figure of the three. At the price, I’m hoping to beat her, but not going to let her beat me.
Race 7 — Juvenile Fillies Turf
Distance: 1 Mile
Surface: Turf
Purse: $1,000,000
Post Time: 6:20 p.m. ET
The Pick: No. 12 Hard to Justify (6-1) has shown versatility in her two career starts. In her second start, not only did she step up to graded stakes company and win, but did so coming off a layoff. History is on her side with 11-of-14 winners having been North America based. Additionally, her trainer Chad Brown has won this race five times.
Live Contenders:
No. 8 Life’s An Audible (15-1) finished second by half a length to Hard to Justify last time out. It was her first time stretching out to two turns, so she stands to improve off that effort. Trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and owner Mike Repole team up with some really nice horses. This one is no exception.
No. 7 Gala Brand (12-1) beat the boys in her second career start, but was too far back last time out and finished fourth. With her closing kick, if she can get more pace and/or be more forwardly placed, she stands a big chance here.
Race 8 — Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $2,000,000
Post Time: 7 p.m. ET
The Pick: No. 10 Muth (4-1) has won both of his starts at this Santa Anita course. Anything coming out of Bob Baffert’s barn must be respected and 11 of the past 15 California Juvenile winners have prepared in California.
Live Contenders:
No. 4 Timberlake (4-1) won the Grade 1 Champagne last time, which was much more professional. It could have been the added distance or the blinkers coming off, but either way, he took a big step forward.
No. 1 The Wine Steward (8-1) only lost by a half length to No. 6 Locked last time out. That was his first time in graded-stakes company and his first time stretching out to two turns. He was extremely game down on the inside and battled for the majority of the stretch run. With that experience under his belt, he can easily move forward.
Race 9 — Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Distance: 1 Mile
Surface: Turf
Purse: $1,000,000
Post Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
The Pick: No. 10 Unquestionable (4-1) is one of three Aiden O’Brien trainees in the race. He finished second last time out in a Group 1 in France. Eleven out of the 16 winners have been from Europe.
Hall-of-Fame jockey Frankie Dettori gets the mount and he spent last winter at this track, so he knows it well.
Live Contenders:
No. 7 Agate Road (8-1) has one of the best late-closing kicks in the race. He won both of his turf starts and did so in the same way, coming from far off the pace and circling the field. He’s another one from the team of Pletcher, Irad and Repole.
2023 Friday Breeders' Cup Best Bets, Picks
Race 5: To Win — No. 9 Admist Waves
Race 5: Pick 5 — 1,4,9 | 1,7,12 | 7,8,12 | 1,4,10 | 7,10
Race 5: Pick 3 — 1,4,9 | 1,12 | 7,8,12
Race 6: To Win — No. 12 Just F Y I
Race 6: Pick 3 — 1,12 | 7,8,12 | 1,4,10
Race 7: To Win — No. 12 Hard to Justify (BEST BET OF THE DAY)
Race 7: Pick 3 — 12 | 1,4,10 | 7,10
Race 8: To Win — No. 10 Muth
