Hello, horse racing friends! As the anticipation builds for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, starting at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, we're likely all keeping an eye on how the latest Kentucky Derby odds for the 2024 Run for the Roses are moving.
That's because in horse racing, unlike with sports betting, the odds you get on your bet aren't necessarily the odds that were listed when you placed your bet. Horse racing uses parimutuel betting, where the odds are based on the total amount wagered and the percentage of those wagers on each horse, with the odds finalized when the race officially begins.
We're just a few hours away from the 150th running of the #KyDerby!
Fierceness and Sierra Leone are currently the top wagering choices. Are you choosing one of the favorites, or going with a long shot? pic.twitter.com/CU0IUq2tED
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 4, 2024
Given that, we know that the No. 17 horse, Fierceness, is almost certainly going to be the favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby — but we don't know exactly what his odds to win will be. That uncertainty could be some good news for us, though.
You see, No. 17 Fierceness is our expert pick for the best bet to win the Kentucky Derby, assuming that he closes at 3-2 or better. And we gave out that pick when Fierceness was listed at 5-2.
The catch would be that earlier this week, horse racing expert Sean Zerillo said on The Favorites podcast that he expected there to be a very good chance Fierceness would close at even money, with Zerillo predicting Fierceness wins the Derby 50-60% of the time.
Based on that Derby prediction, if we can get Fierceness at 3-2 or better, then we're getting good value based on the expected probability of those odds. And if Fierceness is 5-2 or longer? Then, according to Zerillo, the favorite would be a "max bet" to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
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What's most exciting about that is that as we get closer and closer to the start of the 150th Kentucky Derby, the odds on Fierceness to win are actually getting longer. For much of Saturday, Fierceness has actually been 7-2, which is an implied probability of winning about 22% of the time. Getting 7-2 on a bet we expect to win 50% or 60% of the time would be absolutely astonishing.
So keep an eye on Fierceness' odds to win the Derby. If they stay at 7-2, you know what to do. If they end up at 5-2, then this is still a max bet, according to Zerillo.
And if they get all the way down to 3-2? That's still a good bet, according to our Best Bets and Expert Picks to Win and for Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
2024 Kentucky Derby Odds
| POST POSITION | HORSE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 22-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 5-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 16-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | 32-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | 22-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 13-1 |
| 8 | Just A Touch | 10-1 |
| 10 | T O Password | 46-1 |
| 11 | Forever Young | 6-1 |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 41-1 |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 23-1 |
| 14 | Endlessly | 46-1 |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 28-1 |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 45-1 |
| 17 | Fierceness | 7-2 |
| 18 | Stronghold | 36-1 |
| 19 | Resilience | 29-1 |
| 20 | Society Man | 46-1 |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 44-1 |
Odds via TwinSpires. Lines will continue to shift in horse racing, and all bets are action based on the closing odds, not the lines when the bet was placed. For more on Kentucky Derby odds, check out 2024 Kentucky Derby Odds, Predictions: Which Horse Will Win?
