We’re halfway through the 2024 Premier Lacrosse League season and there are a variety of ways to bet each team beyond their Week 7 odds.
Below, I'll break down each team and give my favorite win totals, No. 1 seed bets and season-long player props ahead of the second half of the season.
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Boston Cannons
At the beginning of the season, I gave out the Boston Cannons to win the 2024 PLL championship at +550 and over 5.5 wins at +108. The Cannons are now no longer than +450 to win it all and are just two wins away from going over their win total.
Despite not much movement on its championship odds, I’m a bit more skeptical about Boston’s championship potential at this current price.
The Cannons have proven they can beat teams in the top half of my power rankings — which remain the same entering Week 7 — but I still think their defense is vulnerable, and they could struggle against New York and in potential rematches against Utah or Philadelphia.
That said, there's still some value on their updated win total of 6.5
Boston has a fairly favorable back half of its schedule even after losing to California — the worst team in the league by my rankings. I expect Boston to go 2-2, at worst, in its remaining four games. We should expect a closer game between it and New York the second time around, and it'll be favored against Denver, Maryland and Carolina.
While 2-2 is the likeliest of outcomes, there’s value in betting the Cannons to win three or four of their final games at +130 on bet365 and DraftKings.
Boston has upset potential against New York and matches up well against Denver and Maryland. Carolina might be a closer game than people anticipate, but Boston’s ability to spread out the Chaos' defense and Carolina’s offensive woes should allow Boston to come away with a win in its final game.
If you didn’t bet Boston’s win total at the start of the season, then I recommend betting a full unit on it to go over 6.5 wins.
If you already have a Cannons over 5.5 wins ticket, then it’s worth adding to your position with a half unit at +130.
Picks: Boston Cannons Over 6.5 Wins (0.5 Units)
California Redwoods
While I didn’t have lofty expectations for California at the start of the season, my expectations were higher than the market.
Now that we’re halfway through the season, I’m ready to admit that my expectations for the Redwoods were off.
Chris Gray has been in and out of the lineup, the offense has stalled in a handful of games and their over-reliance on big performances from faceoff specialist TD Ierlan and goaltender Jack Kelly is not sustainable.
While California secured its first win of the season before the All-Star break, this team still ranks at the bottom of the rankings for me, and I don’t expect notable improvement given its remaining schedule.
California will play the defending champions — who blew it out twice last year — two more times this season, a scrappy Whipsnakes team, an undervalued Waterdogs team and both Carolina and Denver again. Even with six games left on the schedule, it'll be tough for this team to win three more this season.
If you bet over 3.5 wins earlier in the season, I wouldn’t buy out of your position and lock in a loss. Instead, find spots to fade California in the second half of the season — like against Utah this upcoming weekend.
If you didn’t bet over 3.5 wins before the season started, then I do think there’s a greater than 56% chance that California stays under 3.5 wins this season, and it’s worth a bet at -125 on DraftKings.
Pick: Bet Against California Redwoods Weekly or Under 3.5 Wins
Carolina Chaos
The Carolina Chaos have been flying under the radar this season, dropping their last three games after a 2-0 start. Yet, this team is still in a great position to make the playoffs, and I’m not worried about the “Carolina to make the playoffs” bet we made before the season started.
The Carolina defense has been elite through five games, despite missing goaltender Blaze Riorden in nearly three of them. While this new offense has had some growing pains, there's still a lot of talent, and their three losses have come at the hands of three of the top four teams in my power rankings.
I even think their odds to win the title are a bit too long at +1000 on Caesars if you’re looking to bet a longshot.
Still, with five games left on their schedule, the over on their win total of 4.5 is the best bet to target.
Carolina has rematches with the two teams it's beaten this year in California and Denver and will face a Matt Rambo-less Maryland team that it matches up well with.
That’s potentially three wins right there, but it also played Utah tight before, as an empty-net goal sealed a 9-7 loss.
Boston is also vulnerable, and if there’s a defense in the league that could give the Cannons some issues, it’s Carolina.
With all that said, five wins is very attainable for this Carolina team, and it’s worth betting the Chaos to go over at +100 on bet365.
Pick: Carolina Chaos Over 4.5 Wins
Denver Outlaws
Denver is a young team that's shown promise, but it could be more tough sledding for it after its 17-4 loss to New York. I don’t expect the Outlaws to get blown out like that again, but missing the playoffs for the second straight season is still likely.
At the beginning of the season, I said that the Outlaws had a lot of potential but also the lowest floor. And I still feel that way heading into the second half of the season.
Denver is a tough team to gauge. Its win over California isn’t entirely impressive and its win over Utah appears to be more of a fluke following its recent result.
While the addition of Eric Law should help jump start an inconsistent offense, he won’t completely solve the Outlaws' problems.
Despite sitting at 2-2, Denver has the worst point differential in the league at -12. This doesn’t bode well for its postseason hopes, even if it has six remaining games to put together a record that keeps it in playoff contention.
Since we’re sitting on the Denver Outlaws to miss the playoffs at +215, I’d pass on betting their win total at 4.5 — even with the under at +100.
While there’s a slightly better than 50% chance that Denver finishes below .500, it’s not a big enough edge to bet it, and you’re better off just fading the Outlaws on a game-by-game basis instead.
Pick: Bet Against Denver in Specific Games in the Second Half of the Season
Maryland Whipsnakes
The Maryland Whipsnakes are another team that's tough to get a read on. The Whipsnakes have won and lost in a variety of ways, beating the New York Atlas and Philadelphia Waterdogs in high-scoring affairs, while also losing to Boston, Utah and New York by significant margins.
The coaching staff, veteran leadership and young talent is there, but there are still some holes on this team personnel wise.
Instead of betting Maryland as a team in the futures market, I’d rather target a specific player: TJ Malone.
The rookie out of Penn State has now become the second-favorite to win Rookie of the Year, but his odds are far from favorite Connor Shellenberger. The New Yorker leads rookies in points with 23 despite missing a game earlier in the season. If you tailed me and bet Shellenberger to win ROY at +300 before the season started, you’re in a good spot to find value on other candidates.
While the best time to bet Malone would've been a few weeks ago when he was still +3000, there’s still value on Malone at +600 given the data we have.
Malone has been the most consistent rookie, recording at least two goals in every game and averaging 3.4 points per evening.
He also doesn’t have the benefit of playing with the MVP favorite and his college teammates like Shellenberger does, so if Malone continues to carry the Maryland offense, there’s a narrative there for him to win the award.
Malone also trails Shellenberger by just six points and will have an extra game to catch him. Even if Shellenberger finishes with more points per game, if Malone finishes tied or slightly ahead of Shellenberger in points, he’ll have a strong case to win the award.
Ultimately, Malone currently has better than a 15% implied chance of winning ROY and now is the time to get a position on him heading into the back half of the season.
Whether you already have a Shellenberger 3-1 ticket or not, it’s worth betting a 0.25 unit on Malone to win.
Pick: TJ Malone to Win Rookie of the Year (0.25 Units)
New York Atlas
Other than taking Shellenberger to win ROY prior to the season, New York was a team I wasn’t completely sure how to bet entering the season.
It proceeded to shatter any expectations set for it with a 5-1 start on the back of the greatest regular season stretch by an individual in professional field lacrosse history.
Jeff Teat has tied the single-season points record and there's still four games left. He's now no shorter than -8000 to win MVP. With the return on a Teat MVP bet at this point being so minuscule and the futures market still slightly overvaluing the Atlas despite their top spot in my power rankings, we need to look elsewhere to bet on or against Teat during this historic run.
While betting Teat to stay under 67.5 points was tempting, six points per game is definitely still achievable for him, and you’d be better off betting him to stay under this mark on a game-by-game basis than fading his current season-long points prop.
Instead, I want to bet Teat to continue his historic run in a different way. Teat currently has 20 goals and 24 assists, thriving as both a goal-scorer and feeder. While I think his goal production could slow down as team’s try to combat this offense, I think his assist rate will remain steady and could even increase.
Teat already dropped seven assists against Boston in Week 1 and had five against Utah last year.
New York’s other two games will be against the Waterdogs, who Teat had four assists against in one game and just one assist in another.
However, Philadelphia has been vulnerable on defense this season, and I expect Teat to have a moderate level of success in the assist department against the Dogs as well.
Bet Teat to record 40+ assists this season at +100 on DraftKings.
Pick: Jeff Teat 40+ Assists
Philadelphia Waterdogs
We’ve all but cashed Waterdogs under 5.5 wins, yet I’m still as high on the Waterdogs now as I was when I told everyone to bet their championship odds at +1000 a few weeks ago.
After another loss before the All-Star break, the 1-4 Waterdogs are as long as 10-1 again.
Still, they’re the fourth-best team in my power rankings and are tied for fourth-best in score differential. Despite dropping both games to the Cannons, Philadelphia is in a good position to make the playoffs and make another title game run.
I’m not worried about its offense, despite not being able to play a complete game up to this point. Their two-point shooting percentage is an abysmal 4.3% and defending goals beyond the arc has lost it some games, but I expect some positive regression going forward.
Last year, Waterdogs had the second-best shooting percentage from deep at 24% and all their deep threats from 2023 are still on the roster.
Additionally, their defense has been playing well in settled situations, and it’s their transition defense that has led to many opposing scoring runs. I expect them to button this up in the second half of the season against weaker opponents.
If you already bet Philadelphia at +1000, stay patient and know you have a nice long shot on a championship-caliber team.
If you don’t have a bet on Philly yet, now is the best time to change that.
Pick: Philadelphia Waterdogs to Win 2024 PLL Championship
Utah Archers
The final team we’re looking at is the defending PLL champion Utah Archers. Before the season started, we bet the Archers to go over 5.5 wins and a half unit on them to secure the top seed.
Utah should still go over its win total of 5.5, especially considering the back half of its schedule. Additionally, the top seed isn’t completely out of reach if Utah manages to hand New York a loss.
I’d pass on betting Utah’s win total at this point, but the Archers have a better than 8% implied chance of claiming the top seed, so a 0.25 unit on them at +1200 is still a good look if you didn’t bet it before the season.
It'll likely take some big wins to have a point differential that surpasses New York, but it’s possible with the Redwoods on the schedule twice.
However, the best way to target Utah going forward is to bet Mac O’Keefe to record 150+ shots on goal this season. O’Keefe is already on pace, with 25 SOG through five games, and he finished with 52 SOG last season.
Including last season, he’s averaged 5.1 shots on goal against his remaining 2024 opponents, and I expect him to have some big games against California and Denver, in particular.
Bet O’Keefe to surpass his season-long shots on goal prop at +120 on DraftKings.
