The National Lacrosse League continues play with four more games on Saturday night and I have three picks for the slate. Let's take a look at my NLL best bets for Saturday of Week 11.
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Toronto Rock vs. Calgary Roughnecks
| Toronto (-2.5) Odds | -275 |
| Calgary (+2.5) Odds | +200 |
| Total | 21.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365
Last week, we cashed Toronto Rock -1.5 when they defeated the Roughnecks in Calgary, 9-7. Yet, the line for this rematch a week later is overinflated. Calgary is a 2.5-point underdog and +200 to win outright for this game after being a 1.5-point underdog and no longer than +130 just a week ago.
Part of the handicap last week was fading a Roughnecks team playing its second game in 24 hours. The Rock had the rest advantage, yet Calgary still kept it close until the final whistle. Their defense in particular impressed, holding Toronto to its lowest goal total of the season.
At 2-5, the Roughnecks are a loss away from being at the bottom of the standings, despite still ranking first in offensive rating and shots defended according to LaxMetrics. Calgary’s offense has stalled as of late, but I think a breakout is coming. They still rank first in goals over expectation with 8.45 — ahead of Toronto’s 6.57. I expect Calgary to keep it close again, cover the spread and potentially steal an outright win. Bet Roughnecks +2.5 at -110 on bet365.
I’m also looking to back Roughnecks forward Tyler Pace by betting him to go over 4.5 points. Pace has surpassed this mark in four of seven games this season and 15 of his last 24. Pace has cooled off lately, with only three points against the Rock last week, but he managed to take eight shots against Toronto. Bet him to have more success this weekend and go over 4.5 points at -140 on bet365.
Picks: Calgary Roughnecks +2.5, Tyler Pace Over 4.5 Points
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New York Riptide vs. San Diego Seals
| New York (+1.5) Odds | +152 |
| San Diego (-1.5) Odds | -188 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
Two of the hottest teams in the NLL square off on Saturday night, but I think one team in particular has a significant edge. While the New York Riptide are playing like a playoff team, I still rank the Seals a tier above.
Both offenses are playing well with New York ranking first in offensive rating and San Diego putting up their second-highest goal total of the season last week. The biggest disparity between these teams lies on the defensive end.
The Riptide defense has been playing a lot better as of late, but is still relying too heavily on goaltender Cameron Dunkerly. New York still allows far too many opposing breakaway chances each game and I expect San Diego to be able to exploit those chances.
As for San Diego, they rank fourth in shots defended allowing an opposing shooting percentage of 16% according to LaxMetrics. Seals starting goalie Chris Origlieri has quietly been one of the best goalies in the league, ranking first in saves over expectation with 23.818. The next closest is Toronto netminder Nick Rose with 15.779.
Orgilieri also ranks second in one-vs-one save percentage among starters with 73% and should be able to handle any transition chances New York generates. Trust the San Diego defense to keep New York in check and bet the Seals to win and cover the 1.5-point spread at -138 on FanDuel.
Pick: San Diego Seals -1.5
