The contenders and pretenders are starting to become apparent after 14 weeks in the National Lacrosse League. NLL Week 15 kicks off with three Friday matchups and I’m targeting two games in particular. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Georgia Swarm vs. Calgary Roughnecks and Buffalo Bandits vs. Saskatchewan Rush.
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Georgia Swarm vs. Calgary Roughnecks
| Georgia (-1.5) Odds | -130 |
| Calgary (+1.5) Odds | +100 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Georgia Swarm and Calgary Roughnecks face off in a game with playoff implications. The game is appropriately priced as a coin flip at most places, so I’m not betting a side in this one. Instead, I’m targeting the total at 22.5. The total may seem right given how strong both goaltenders and defenses are, but I think there’s a greater than 53% chance we see more than 22.5 goals scored Friday night.
Both teams rank at the top in breakaway chances and goals, with Calgary leading the league in both with 38 breakaway chances and 17 goals. Georgia is close behind with 31 breakaway chances and 11 goals. No other team has more than 30 breakaway chances or 10 breakaway goals. Not only do both teams generate a lot of transition chances, but both have been prone to giving up transition goals as well, with Georgia in particular really struggling to limit opposing breakaway chances.
In addition to the expected fast pace, both offenses rank in the top six in offensive rating, according to LaxMetrics. Expect these teams to play fast and score enough goals to push this total over on Friday night.
Bet this game to surpass 22.5 points at -115 on Caesars or FanDuel.
Pick: Over 22.5
Buffalo Bandits vs. Saskatchewan Rush
| Buffalo (-2.5) Odds | -230 |
| Saskatchewan (+2.5) Odds | +175 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s rare I bet both a total and a side in the same game, not wanting to have sometimes competing rooting interests in a game. But for the Friday night tilt in Buffalo, I’m backing Saskatchewan on the spread and the total to go over 23.5.
The Rush are going to need to have a big night on offense in order to keep this game close and potentially upset the defending champs, and I think they have a great chance of doing so. While their playoff hopes have been dwindling, the market is underrating a Rush team that still ranks in the upper half of the NLL in offensive rating, according to LaxMetrics.
Saskatchewan is facing a Buffalo team that has looked like a shell of itself and is without starting goaltender Matt Vinc. Buffalo is 3-8 against the spread this season and has lost outright as a 2.5-point favorite or greater three times already this season, including last week against the lowest team in the standings in Vancouver.
Even if Buffalo is able to secure a win Friday night, I expect Saskatchewan to keep the game close and cover the 2.5-point spread (-120 on Caesars).
Part of Buffalo’s issues have come on defense. The Bandits have allowed at least 13 goals in their last seven games, and seven of their 11 games this season have had more than 23.5 goals scored. While Buffalo’s scoring depth has also been a concern, I trust the Bandits’ offense to be able to score a lot of goals against the Rush’s bottom-three defense. As for Saskatchewan’s offense, it has shown the ability to have big performances against weak defenses, scoring an average of 15 goals per game against Las Vegas, Vancouver and Colorado — three teams that have allowed opponents to shoot an average of 18.4% or higher. Buffalo’s average shooting percentage allowed is 18.2% this season and it is 21.74% in its last six games.
Expect a high-scoring affair Friday and bet the total to go over 23.5 at -115 on DraftKings.
Pick: Saskatchewan Rush +2.5 | Over 23.5
