NCAA Division I men’s lacrosse returns with another action-packed Saturday slate. For Week 4, I once again am eyeing a short favorite and two totals in some early Saturday games,
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check outmy guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Bryant (-3.5) vs. Manhattan
| Bryant Odds | -575 |
| Manhattan Odds | +360 |
| Total | 21.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 11 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Where do we start with this matchup between the Bryant Bulldogs and Manhattan Jaspers? When the oddsmakers set this total, they had to consider the Bryant offense’s 16.3 goals per game average or the Manhattan defense’s eight goals allowed per game average. The result was a relatively low total by college lacrosse standards at 21.5.
Now, the Jaspers have probably played some better competition, facing Navy and Princeton in back-to-back weeks, but those teams have failed to meet the preseason expectations set for them so far, with Navy falling out of the top 20 rather quickly and Princeton looking outmatched against Maryland last week.
In hindsight, the Jaspers’ defensive performances, while impressive, don’t tell us a whole lot.
The same could be said for the Bulldogs, whose schedule so far doesn’t tell us much about this team’s ceiling or floor. Yet, Bryant’s offense has managed to score more than 15 in all of its games and has faced a solid Boston University defense and Quinnipiac netminder Nick DiMuccio following his 21-save performance against Brown.
If I was setting this total, I’d have put a lot more weight into Bryant’s offense than Manhattan’s defense through three weeks.
Neither team possesses a strong faceoff advantage, which should keep this game competitive throughout and lead to a higher total. Yet, the final selling point for betting over 21.5 isn’t based on the performances of these two teams but the venue they’ll be playing at.
Following the posting of this total, the game was moved to an indoor facility — which are often conducive to high-scoring games given how it's harder for goalies to track the ball indoors. So, not only are we getting a lower-than-average total, we’re getting an environment that sets up for an offensive affair.
Bet over 21.5 (-125 on DraftKings) to start your weekend and don’t think twice.
Pick: Over 21.5
North Carolina (-2.5) vs. Denver
| North Carolina Odds | -335 |
| Rutgers Odds | +260 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 11 a.m. ET |
| TV | ACCNX |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Let’s take a look at another total in another game occurring at 11 a.m. ET, with No. 11 North Carolina facing Denver. The total sits at 24.5 at most sportsbooks, but Caesars is currently offering 25.5.
North Carolina’s offense came alive last weekend, dropping 19 goals on Syracuse, thanks in large part to its 54.3% face-off percentage. The Tar Heels took advantage of the Cuse defense and scored on 38.8% of their shots.
Despite giving up 13 goals — their highest total so far this season — the North Carolina defense still ranks first in defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference.
I think we can expect to see this defense — which is giving up an average of only 7.75 goals per game — continue to play well in front of Collin Krieg. Krieg himself has stopped 61.25% of the shots he’s faced, and I expect another big day in net for him against the Pioneers.
What could hinder the Tar Heels' chances at covering and ultimately winning is a lack of possession time. Alec Stathakis is tied for 11th in the nation in faceoff percentage, going 64.9% through four games, and should help Denver dictate the pace.
We know the Pioneers love to work for the best shot on offense, choosing to initiate their offense at the 63rd-slowest pace out of the 75 Division I teams. While Andrew Tyeryar should hold his own against Stathakis, I’d be shocked if we see this total go over 25.5.
This game is shaping up to be a slow, “grind-it-out” dogfight, and I recommend betting under 25.5 (-120 on Caesars).
Pick: Under 25.5
Towson (-1.5) vs. UMBC
| Towson Odds | -120 |
| UMBC Odds | -110 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | AmericaEast.TV |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Saturday continues with a classic Baltimore rivalry between two Maryland state schools. Towson is fresh off a heartbreaking 12-11 loss to the seventh-ranked Loyola Greyhounds, while UMBC is looking to improve to 4-0.
UMBC’s wins have been impressive on paper, winning by an average of eight goals per game, but the team has yet to be truly tested. Meanwhile, Towson has faced some stout competition in its last three games, with two of those opponents being 2022 NCAA Tournament teams and the third being No. 7 Loyola.
Towson is battle-tested, and while its close loss to Loyola earlier this week makes this feel like we’re buying high on this team, I think a bet on Towson in this game is just as much a fade of UMBC.
Furthermore, Towson’s turnover rate has doomed it in its past two games, as it turned the ball over on more than 40% of possessions in back-to-back games, according to Lacrosse Reference.
And yet, it lost to Richmond by just three goals and Loyola by just one. I think some positive regression is headed toward Towson, and I think it'll be able to play more composed against a weaker opponent on Saturday.
Bet Towson to not only win but cover the 1.5-point spread (+120 on DraftKings).
Pick: Towson -1.5
