PLL Week 4 continues on Sunday, starting with a matchup between two 2-1 teams in Redwoods and Chaos and continuing with Whipsnakes vs. Archers.
All four teams sit in the top five of the standings and are looking to increase their rank. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Sunday slate.
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Redwoods LC (-1.5) vs Chaos LC
| Redwoods Odds | -120 |
| Chaos Odds | -105 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Sunday · 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via BetMGM.
The Redwoods and Chaos meet on Sunday afternoon and sportsbooks have differed in setting lines for this game. While both are heavily juiced, you can currently get Redwoods +1.5 and Chaos +1.5 depending on the app. The moneyline is a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks. For me, there is a clear favorite in this game.
Through three weeks, these 2-1 teams have looked considerably different. I personally don’t think either is the top team in the league, but I do feel like we’ve seen much better outings from Chaos than we have from Redwoods.
Despite expecting them to finish last at the start of the season, I’ve come around on this Chaos team. Will Bowen’s presence has greatly improved their defense and allowed other defenders to thrive in front of the undisputed best goalie in the league, Blaze Riorden. This defense ranks first in scores against average, only allowing 10.3 goals per game through three weeks. While Jack Rowlett will be out of the lineup, Johnny Surdick will do just fine as his replacement.
Yet, this Chaos offense, which made it to three straight PLL championships thanks to their box-style influence, has been re-invented thanks to the presence of the dynamic rookie Brian Minicus. Having Minicus at X has forced teams to gameplan for his ability to score and feed from behind the net, opening up skip lanes and space for Chaos to shoot and dodge up top.
As for the Redwoods, their 2-0 start before falling to Whipsnakes was impressive, but I fear it’s more smoke and mirrors than a precursor of future success. They defeated a talented Atlas team, but one that still hasn’t been able to find consistency on the defensive end. Then the Redwoods came back to defeat the Waterdogs, but the Dogs' defense allowed 'Woods to easily win their one-on-one matchups and the 'Woods were saved in large part due to Jack Kelly’s tremendous performance in net.
I think their seven-goal loss to the Whipsnakes was more telling. Gransey has been one of the brightest spots on this offense, but I think teams are going to prioritize containing him. The Whipsnakes' defense allowed him to get far too many opportunities dodging a short-stick defensive midfielder (SSDM), and I expect Chaos to prioritize keeping him in check by having Surdick guard him.
I also worry about the Redwoods' depth at SSDM, as they've opted to roster only three defensive midfielders and two of them are more traditional two-way midfielders. If Chaos can utilize switches to create favorable matchups, it could be a long day for the Redwoods defense.
For me, Chaos moneyline (+105 on BetMGM) is the clear play in this one. I wouldn’t even bother laying the juice to get Chaos +1.5 and would actually suggest betting Chaos -1.5 at +120 if you wanted to bet Chaos at plus money.
I also like a few player props in this game, with the first being Ryder Garnsey under 4.5 points (-125 on FanDuel.) Garnsey has been spectacular this season, but averaging five points per game is hard to do in this league and I really don’t like the matchup for Garnsey, whether it’s Surdick or Jarrod Neumann, especially with Riroden in net. While the price has moved from -113 to now -125, I still think these are great odds to bet Garnsey to stay under 4.5 points.
I am also targeting Nakeie Montogmery’s under 1.5 points (-160 on DraftKings). While Montgomery played offensive midfielder in college, he operated as a SSDM for most of his short PLL career and should do so again against Chaos. While he certainly can make some plays on offense, I think he’ll struggle to put up any points, let alone two. Even at -160, betting under 1.5 points is a positive EV play for a player who has only recorded four multi-point games in 14 outings.
Finally, I’m also betting Josh Byrne to go over his points prop of 3.5 and goals prop of 2.5. While the juice has moved a bit on both props, this is a great matchup for Byrne. Byrne is one of the more consistent offensive threats in the league and his combination of speed and deception make him an elite goal-scorer — who will continue to benefit with Chris Cloutier back in the lineup and Minicus at X. Bet him to record more than 3.5 points (-146 on FanDuel) and a hat trick or better (-120 on FanDuel).
Picks: Chaos ML, Ryder Garnsey Under 4.5 Points, Nakeie Under 1.5 Points, Josh Byrne Over 3.5 Points, Josh Byrne Over 2.5 Goals
Whipsnakes LC (-1.5) vs Archers LC
| Whipsnakes Odds | -120 |
| Archers Odds | -105 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Sunday · 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM.
The final game of the weekend features Archers and Whipsnakes, and much like Redwoods vs. Chaos, sportsbooks have also struggled to come to a consensus on who should be favored. I’m still fairly high on the Whipsnakes even at 1-2, but this is a tough matchup considering that they’ll be without both Matt Rambo and Michael Ehrhardt.
Ehrhardt’s absence opens up the Archers' offense, particularly at the midfield, and I expect Tom Schreiber, Ryan Aughavin and Tre Leclaire to get some good looks up top. Archers also like to free up Matt Moore and Mac O’Keefe on the high wings as well and you may see them hunt more two-pointers than normal.
The loss of Rambo also greatly impacts Whipsnakes on offense and you’ll likely see Keegan Khan operate at X in place. Rambo’s physical dodging ability and vision open up opportunities for other players on this offense and with him out of the lineup, Zed Williams and Will Manny will need to shoulder the load against a formidable Archers defense. Even with Grant Ament out of the lineup, I like Archers to handle the banged up Whipsnakes on Sunday and recommend betting them on the moneyline at -105 on BetMGM.
Additionally, I’m looking to bet against Will Manny with Rambo out of the lineup and recommend betting him to stay under 3.5 points (+134 on FanDuel.) Manny thrived last week against Redwoods, but I expect this Archers team, who knows his tendencies, will play him much tighter and think these are extremely favorable odds when considering Manny has only recorded four or more points in five of his last 15 games.
I’m also betting Archers goaltender Brett Dobson to make more than 12.5 saves. We only have a four game sample size to go off, but Dobson has made 13 saves or more in three of his four career starts and is averaging 14.75 saves per game. Bet Dobson to record more than 12.5 saves at +108 on FanDuel.
Pick: Archers ML, Brett Dobson Over 12.5 Saves, Will Manny Under 3.5 Points
