The final week of the 2022 Premier Lacrosse League regular season kicks off with two Saturday night matchups.
Chrome LC looks to lock up the No. 2 seed with a win over the red-hot Redwoods.
The Waterdogs and Archers follow in a game that has major seeding implications for both teams and could end up being a quarterfinal preview.
Let’s take a look at both games and where the betting edge lies.
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Chrome (-1.5) vs. Redwoods
| Chrome Odds | -160 |
| Redwoods Odds | +130 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings.
With the Whipsnakes locking up the top seed and a first-round bye last week, the Chrome will look to simply maintain their spot as the No. 2 seed and carry some momentum into their first-ever playoff appearance.
Barring a huge loss from the Waterdogs, the Redwoods will likely remain in the sixth spot, even with a win. The Chrome are 1.5-point favorites this time around after beating the Redwoods, 12-3, earlier this season.
Meanwhile, the total sits at 23.5.
The last matchup between these two teams featured the lowest-scoring game in PLL history and the fewest goals scored by a team, courtesy of an anemic Redwoods offense.
However, the Redwoods' offense has turned it around recently with some big performances against the Atlas, Cannons and Waterdogs in the past four weeks.
That being said, the Atlas were without Trevor Baptiste in their game against the Redwoods, which gave the Woods a sizable possession advantage.
Additionally, the Woods’ most recent wins — while impressive — came against a Cannons defense that ranks last in defensive efficiency and a Waterdogs defense that is giving up a league-high 33.4% shooting percentage.
The Chrome have had similar success in the win-loss column in recent weeks, but their defense's ability to shut down some of the top offenses has been far more impressive.
In their past three games, the Chrome have held each of their opponents to just nine goals. Their scores against average (SAA) of 10 goals per game ranks second in the PLL, and their 22% efficiency in settled defense is not only the best this year, but ranks second all-time in a season.
During the past five games, Defensive Player of the Year favorite JT Giles-Harris has held the likes of Jeff Teat, Kieran McArdle, Zed Williams, Josh Byrne and Lyle Thompson to an average of 2.8 points per game.
That group features three 2022 MVP candidates, the 2020 MVP and arguably Chaos LC’s best player on offense (that unit has collectively been averaging 3.7 points per game this season).
This week, he’ll matchup with Rob Pannell, who he held to just one point in week two.
Not only could this Chrome defense give the Woods trouble, but the offense will get to face a Redwoods defense that ranks last in settled defensive efficiency.
The unit will also be without its leader Eddy Glazener, who suffered a partially torn Achilles last week. This is not a good sign for a defense that will have to defend Rookie of the Year candidates Logan Wisnauskas and Brendan Nichtern.
We likely won’t see as lopsided a victory as we did in week two, but all signs point toward the Chrome earning their seventh win of the season in a relatively easy fashion.
I recommend betting Chrome -1.5 (-105 on DraftKings) and would play this all the way to -130.
Pick: Chrome -1.5
Archers (-1.5) vs. Waterdogs
| Archers Odds | -165 |
| Waterdogs Odds | +127 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
This matchup has a lot of ramifications when it comes to seeding, especially with the possibility this results in a first-round rematch between these two teams.
Both teams sit at 5-4, with the Archers entering this game as 1.5-point favorites. The total is currently set at 24.5 on DraftKings.
The Waterdogs had their five-game winning streak snapped last week when the Redwoods handed them a 14-12 loss. In that loss, many of the issues that plagued them in the first three weeks of the season struck again.
The Waterdogs made mistakes during substitutions and the Redwoods took advantage of their short-stick matchups. During their five-game win streak, the Waterdogs' biggest strengths were limiting mistakes in transition and taking quality shots on offense.
Their defense has the personnel to hang with the high-powered Archers offense, as long as they limit communication breakdowns and allow Dillon Ward to make clean saves.
While the Archers' offense is still the most efficient in the league — scoring on 32.8% of their possessions — they’ve struggled against some of the top opponents.
They have yet to win a game against a team with a winning record and have averaged just 9.75 goals per game in those four losses. That's a drastic difference when compared to their average of 15 goals per game in their five wins against the Redwoods, Chaos and Cannons.
Expect the Waterdogs to deploy a similar strategy as the Atlas and press out to limit this Archers offense from moving the ball effectively.
The Archers will find the back of the net on Saturday, but whether it will be enough against an equally efficient Waterdogs offense (scoring on 31.3% of possessions) remains to be seen.
Both teams’ Achilles heel this year has been their disadvantage at the face-off stripe, with the Archers (39%) and Waterdogs (38%) ranking dead last in face-off percentage.
Despite this, the Waterdogs still manage to take a league-high 43.6 shots per game and will presumably face Archers goaltender Adam Ghitelman, who has the worst save percentage among goalies with a minimum of eight starts.
If the Waterdogs can limit their mistakes in transition and avoid getting offensive personnel caught on defense — which has doomed them in all four of their losses — the Waterdogs should cover the spread and potentially win outright.
I recommend betting the Waterdogs +1.5 (-120 on Caesars) and would play this down to -140.
Additionally, while the total of 24.5 is high, these offenses have the weapons to get into a shootout. Also, the lack of an advantage at the face-off should lead to a back-and-forth game. I'm betting the total to go over 24.5.
Pick: Waterdogs +1.5, Over 24.5
