The 2023 Premier Lacrosse League's Cash App Championship is less than a week away. While the injury report has not been released and player props are not yet available, there's an early bet with value to make right now.
While most sportsbooks have set the total for the title game between the Archers and Waterdogs at 25.5, there is still one sportsbook offering a different number on the total.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Archers LC vs. Waterdogs LC (-1.5)
| Archers Odds | -110 |
| Waterdogs Odds | -115 |
| Total | 25.5 (-114 / -114) |
| Time | Sunday · 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds via BetRivers.
FanDuel was the first to post odds for the 2023 PLL Championship, setting the total for the third meeting between Archers and Waterdogs at 24.5. When the other sportsbooks posted odds, they set the total at 25.5, so FanDuel quickly followed and decreased its total.
Yet, if you missed out on that early number, fear not. BetRivers still has over 24.5 priced at -127, and you should bet that right now.
I’m not ready to pick a side in this game until the injury report gets released, but I am confident there will be more than 24 goals scored, regardless of any potential injuries.
While the saying is “defense wins championships,” the Archers and Waterdogs have secured a spot in the 2023 PLL Championship largely due to their balance on both sides of the ball.
The Waterdogs and Archers rank first and second in Defensive Efficiency, respectively, and are coming off strong defensive showings in the semifinals. However, it wasn't a fluke that their first meeting tied the record for most goals in a PLL game with 37, and their second matchup still produced 27 goals.
Seven of the Archers' 11 games this season have surpassed 24.5 goals, and in those that stayed under, Archers scored an average of 12.25 goals. Meanwhile, half of the Waterdogs' games have gone over this mark, but in the games that went under, Waterdogs scored an average of 10.83 goals. They also haven't scored fewer than 13 goals since August 6, so the Waterdogs offense has hit its stride recently.
Additionally, both teams’ offenses rank near the top in efficiency metrics, with Archers scoring on 29.1% of their settled possessions and Waterdogs scoring on 27.1%—good for second and third in the league. The Waterdogs and Archers also love to push in transition, generating the second and fourth-most transition shots this season.
While two-point goal probability is hard to incorporate when handicapping totals in the PLL due to the game-by-game variance, it is important when considering this matchup, particularly for the Waterdogs. The Waterdogs draw up plenty of two-point plays and hunt two-pointers in transition. They finished with the third-highest amount of two-point goals with 12.
The Archers also can shoot from range, scoring 10 two-point goals this season and also allowing the third-most with nine. There were a pair of two-point goals in the last meeting and three two-pointers in the earlier matchup this season.
Finally, both offenses have had moderate success against opposing starting goalies Brett Dobson and Dillon Ward, respectively. Dobson allowed his season-high in goals against in the first Archers-Waterdogs matchup. While Ward only allowed 10 goals in his lone start against the Waterdogs, he saw a season-high 35 shots on goal. Expect both netminders to be tested early and often as there is value on this title game to go over 24.5.
Pick: Over 24.5 (BetRivers)
