The Premier Lacrosse League playoffs kick off on Labor Day with the third game between the Chaos and Redwoods this season. Chaos enters as 1.5-point favorites and the total is the lowest of the weekend at 23.5.
Let's examine which team has the betting edge in this Chaos vs Redwoods quarterfinals matchup.
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Chaos LC (-1.5) vs Redwoods LC
| Chaos Odds | -120 |
| Redwoods Odds | -110 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Monday · 11:45 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Saturday via Caesars Sportsbook
Each team claimed a win against the other this season, but both meetings featured some notable absences, particularly in the case of Chaos. Redwoods took the first game by a score 13-8, but former PLL MVP and Chaos starting goaltender Blaze Riorden was a healthy scratch. Chaos won the second game 14-12 despite being without their leading scorer at the time, Josh Byrne.
The Redwoods may have the better record and actually outplayed Chaos for the majority of the last meeting, but the Chaos are rightly favored. Byrne and Riorden are two of Chaos' best two players and the presence is pivotal for a potential playoff run. The Chaos defense has played very well in front of Riorden this season and their ability to convert defensive stops into transition opportunities on offense will provide an edge like in the last meeting. Chaos has scored on 32.9% of their fast breaks this season and had a pair of two-point goals in transition in the team’s last game against Redwoods. Furthermore, Redwoods ranks last in transition defense among playoff teams, allowing goals on 37% of transition chances.
Chaos has a ton of options on offense, and their two-man game sets in particular could cause problems for Redwoods. I expect the combos of Byrne and Cloutier on the left side and Dhane Smith and Ryan Smith on the right to have the most success. In the chance Redwoods are more prepared, Chaos also can initiate offense through speedy X attackman Brian Minicus as well.
I think a Chaos team at full strength should come away with a multi-goal victory on Monday and recommend betting Chaos -1.5 at +130 via Caesars. Despite having to play top-seeded Archers if they advance, Chaos arguably have the most ideal path to the championship. Chaos is only one of two teams to beat Archers this year and have ended their season in three straight playoff appearances. I recommend betting 0.25 units on Chaos to win the PLL Championship at +800 on BetRivers. This is a great number to bet a team that has the blueprint for beating Archers and has appeared in the last three PLL championships.
I’m also targeting some player props in this game in the form of the unrelated duo I like to call “Mr. and Mr. Smith.”
Dhane Smith is a midfielder of the year candidate, recording a league-high 26 assists despite playing in just eight games. He’s had four or more points in five of those eight games this season and should have plenty of chances as a feeder on Monday given the Redwoods defense’s tendency to slide early and often. He had four points in the last game between these two teams and had seven points last year when both Chris Cloutier and Josh Byrne were in the lineup. Bet Smith to record over 3.5 points at -113 on FanDuel.
The other half of the “Mr. and Mr. Smith” duo is Ryan Smith, who recorded at least two points in seven of 10 games this season. Ryan Smith may be one of the most underrated players in the league and has two points or more in four of six games against a Redwoods defense that has remained mostly unchanged over three seasons. Bet a unit on Ryan Smith to surpass 1.5 points (-145 on DraftKings) and then 0.25 units on him to have 3+ goals (+450 on FanDuel.) Smith is predominantly a goal scorer and has two hat tricks in 10 games this season, making +450 a great price to throw a little on him to score a hat trick.
Finally, we’re looking to cash another Ryder Garnsey under for the fourth time this season. We’re 3-0 this season betting Garnsey to stay under his points prop this year and as long as sportsbooks continue to set the line at 3.5 or higher at fair odds, I’m going to go back to the well.
Garnsey has had some massive games this season, but he has actually had four points or more in just three of 10 games this season and all of them came before July 9. While Garnsey had five points in the first meeting between these teams, it’s important to remember that Riorden was not in net during that game. Bet Garnsey to stay under 3.5 points at -125 on bet365.
Picks: Chaos -1.5, Dhane Smith Over 3.5 Points, Ryan Smith Over 1.5 Points & 3+ Goals (0.25 unit), Ryder Garnsey Under 3.5 Points
Stay tuned for my other PLL Quarterfinals betting previews here.
