The 2024 National Lacrosse League Finals begin on Friday night and feature a showdown between two teams from New York. The 2023 NLL defending champion Buffalo Bandits will make their fourth straight appearance in the NLL Finals and are no shorter than -150 to win it all again. They’ll face the Albany FireWolves, who make their first appearance in the NLL Finals after finishing with the worst record in the league in 2023. Let’s take a look at my best bets for Game 1 and the three-game series as a whole.
Here are my National Lacrosse League playoff picks.
No. 3 Albany FireWolves vs. No. 4 Buffalo Bandits Game 1
| Albany (+1.5) Odds | +105 |
| Buffalo (-1.5) Odds | -135 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The FireWolves host the Bandits and are 1.5-point favorites at home against the defending champs. The total for Game 1 is 23.5 across all sportsbooks and that’s where the most value in this game lies.
It was not nearly as dominant of a season for Buffalo compared to the past two years, but the Bandits find themselves back in the NLL Finals thanks in large part to the play of ageless wonder Matt Vinc.
Cooper Perkins of LaxMetrics chronicled the impressive turnaround for a Buffalo defense that was below average in opponent shooting percentage and looked like a shell of itself for the first 19 weeks of the season. Since their April 14 game against Calgary, Buffalo has gone from an 18.9% defensive shooting percentage through the first 19 weeks to 9.5% in their current five-game stretch. No other team has had more than a three-game stretch with below 10%.
Their opponent in Albany has been solid on defense as well, posting a 12.6% opposing shooting percentage and holding two high-powered opposing offenses to an average of 8.3 goals per game in the playoffs. The FireWolves are backstopped by goalie Doug Jamieson, who finished the regular season with the second-best save percentage in the NLL at 80%.
As for these two offenses, Buffalo loves to push in transition and dominated Toronto on fast break opportunities in the semifinals. Yet, despite their affinity for creating odd-man chances, they haven’t been as successful as whole this season as it may seem.
According to Ty Merrow, Buffalo’s fast break success rate was just 15.2%, which was third-worst in the NLL. Furthermore, Buffalo has been great at limiting opposing transition chances, though that may not matter much considering 64.5% of Albany’s total offensive shifts have been settled and even strength—the fourth-highest percentage in the NLL.
Buffalo and Albany allowed the fewest and second-fewest breakaway goals during the regular season and so far this postseason the Bandits have allowed no true breakaways and Albany has allowed just two—neither leading to goals—according to LaxMetrics.
Both teams strengthened their backend through mid-season trades, with Albany adding defenders Anthony Joaquim and John Wagner and Buffalo acquiring Paul Dawson. Only Joaquim played in their most recent February matchup.
Teams also tend to buckle down in the playoffs. Only one of the six playoff games featuring one these two teams have seen more than 23 goals scored and the average total has been just 17.3.
Ultimately, I expect this game to be low-scoring with potentially neither team reaching double digits. Bet this game to stay under 23.5 at -115 on Caesars.
I also recommend betting Albany forward Ethan Walker to stay under 3.5 assists on Friday night. Walker has stayed under this mark in seven of 21 games this season and at -140 on bet365, the odds are good to bet him to do so against Buffalo.
How to Bet the 2024 NLL Finals Series
Finally, while I lean Albany in Game 1, there is a better way to bet them than just on the moneyline.
Since 2014, when the NLL went back to three-game series to determine a champion, the team that has won the first game of the NLL Finals has gone on to win the championship in six of eight seasons. The only two series where a team erased a 0-1 deficit was in 2014 and 2022, when there was a full week between Game 1 and Game 2.
This season, there are just 48 hours separating Game 1 and Game 2 and while travel is less of an issue considering these teams are based just five hours apart, that’s a quick turnaround for the team facing elimination.
The reason I expect Albany to be the team to come out of this series on top is because I think their offense matches up well with Buffalo. Toronto did not get Buffalo’s defense moving nearly enough in the semifinals, using limited offball pick play and settling for far too many outside shots that Buffalo netminder Matt Vinc easily stopped.
I don’t expect Albany to make the same mistake. We often see all five Albany players in constant motion, particularly in their semifinals series against the San Diego Seals, and their ball movement is some of the best in the league.
Ultimately, the best time to bet either of these teams to win it all is prior to Game 1. If you don’t already have a futures position on Albany and have access to bet365, bet a 0.25 unit on a parlay of the FireWolves to win Game 1 (+100) and win the series (+120) for a +340 payout.
Picks: Under 23.5, Ethan Walker Under 3.5 Assists, Albany FireWolves to Win Game 1 + Win Series Parlay (0.25 unit)
