The 2024 National Lacrosse League playoffs continue with the semifinals this weekend. Both three-game series begin on Friday night with the Toronto Rock hosting the Buffalo Bandits followed by the San Diego Seals hosting the Albany FireWolves.
No. 1 Toronto Rock vs. No. 4 Buffalo Bandits
| Toronto (-1.5) | Moneyline (-166) |
| Buffalo (+1.5) | Moneyline (+130) |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The top-seeded Toronto Rock host their archrivals from Buffalo, with the Rock a slight favorite despite two of their only three losses coming against the Bandits this season. Buffalo has won five straight against Toronto and has also defeated the Rock in five straight playoff games. I think Toronto is built to beat this Buffalo team despite these past two regular season results, but I’d rather target the total than bet the Rock against their kryptonite.
The total is still 22.5 at DraftKings and BetRivers and I think this game will go over like it did both times earlier this season.
Despite Toronto’s strong defense and some defensive improvements for Buffalo, both teams know this game can be won or lost on the fast break. Both teams love to push in transition, each ranking in the top five in breakaway chances according to LaxMetrics. Toronto has also been prone to allowing quality breakaway chances, which Buffalo took advantage of when it created four clean breakaways and scored on two of them against the Rock earlier this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense has played better as of late, but still ranked middle of the pack in opposing shooting percentage and has allowed an average of 13.1 goals per game to playoff teams.
The past two games between these teams saw 30 and 26 goals scored respectively and while I don’t expect another 30-point outing, I do think we’ll see another high-scoring affair. Bet this game to go Over 22.5 at -120 on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 22.5 (-120)
No. 2 San Diego Seals vs. No. 3 Albany FireWolves
| San Diego (-2.5) | Moneyline (-260) |
| Albany (+2.5) | Moneyline (+190) |
| Total | 21.5 |
| Time | Friday · 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via bet365
The San Diego Seals host the Albany FireWolves following a 9-8 overtime win. Despite their close quarterfinal matchup, the Seals are still as high as 2.5-point favorites against an Albany team they doubled up earlier in the season, 14-7.
I expect this one to be a bit closer, but am targeting the total of 21.5.
Despite being on the lower side of NLL totals, I’d be surprised if both teams reach double digits given the goaltender matchup. Doug Jamieson and Chris Origlieri are second and fifth among starters in save percentage respectively and San Diego and Albany rank fourth and seventh in opposing shooting percentage allowed according to LaxMetrics.
Both teams rank in the bottom-four in breakaways generated and don’t force transitions often. Furthermore, 12 of San Diego’s 19 games have stayed under this mark and nine of Albany’s 19 have as well, including five of their last six games.
Bet this total to stay Under 21.5 at -110 on bet365.
I’m also targeting Albany forward Ethan Walker to stay under his points prop of 4.5. Walker has stayed under in 11 of 19 games this season, and his recent production combined with the matchup is why I still like him to fall short of this mark.
Walker has stayed under 4.5 in four of his last five games, but more importantly, he's failed to hit that mark in all five games against teams that rank in the top five in opposing shooting percentage, averaging just three points in those games. The last time he faced San Diego, the Seals held him to four points and 1-for-8 shooting. I expect San Diego to again limit Walker’s quality scoring chances and recommend betting him to stay under his points prop of 4.5 at -120 on bet365.
I’m also betting Wes Berg to go Under 8.5 shots on goal. Berg does it all for San Diego — scoring, assisting and even setting picks to get teammates open. With the Seals' offense at full strength, I expect him to act as more of a facilitator to teammates like Austin Staats, Curtis Dickson and Dane Dobbie against Albany. When these teams last played, Berg recorded seven points on five assists and two goals — and still stayed under 8.5 shots on goal. Berg has gone under this mark in 10 of 19 games this season, so +150 on bet365 is a great price to bet him to do so again on Friday night.
Picks: Under 21.5 (-110), Ethan Walker Under 4.5 Points (-120), Wes Berg Under 8.5 SOG (+150)
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