The 2024 Premier Lacrosse League season commences with a title matchup between the defending champion Utah Archers and two-time champion Maryland Whipsnakes. Let’s take a look at my PLL Championship picks for the first-half spread, total and three-player props.
No. 2 Utah Archers vs. No. 4 Maryland Whipsnakes
| Utah (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -118 |
| Maryland (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -104 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Sunday · 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds via FanDuel
I think Maryland could pull off the upset, but the moneyline price isn’t long enough for me to bet them to defeat the defending champions. Plus, if you bet the Whipsnakes to win the title at +700 and Archers to repeat as champions at +550 like I suggested earlier in the season, you’re able to sit back and enjoy this game knowing you’re walking away with a profit. Ultimately, I lean toward Utah to win its second-straight PLL championship, but there are better ways to bet on this game than betting a side in what I expect to be a close game for the full 48 minutes.
I do think Utah could get off to an early lead and have a better than 40% chance of leading by two goals or more at half. At +154 on DraftKings, the odds are favorable to bet a half unit on Archers to cover the 1.5-point first-half spread.
Expecting a Lower-Scoring Game
I’m also targeting the total of 23.5. The lone 2024 meeting between these teams saw 27 goals scored between the two teams, but there’s a variety of reasons why I expect this rematch to be lower scoring.
The last game between these teams saw a combined six goals on broken plays and unsettled situations and the pacing was quicker than normal. Furthermore, two Maryland defenders in particular struggled. Jack Koras gave up two goals as the closest defender, but won’t suit up for the championship game. Maryland long-stick midfielder Alex Mazzone was also beaten or out of position on a few goals in his Whipsnakes debut but has settled in as a competent defender in the Maryland system since then.
In fact, Maryland as a whole has been much better defensively. The Whipsnakes’ defensive efficiency of 33.2% through their first five games would rank dead last among the rest of the team’s final regular season marks. Yet, since the all-star break, Maryland has the best defensive efficiency of any team, allowing goals on just 22.8% of opponents’ offensive possessions.
Utah has also been stout defensively, holding Carolina to a PLL-record one goal in the semifinals and goaltender Brett Dobson has a save percentage of 68% throughout his last four games. While both teams were successful in generating offense against each other earlier in the season, I expect their familiarity to lead to a lower-scoring title game. Bet the championship to stay under 23.5 at -106 on FanDuel.
Three Player Props to Target
While I like the full game under, I’m betting Mac O’Keefe to score at least two goals on Sunday. O’Keefe has had multi-goal performances in eight of 11 games this season and 19 of 23 games as an Archer. He also had four goals against Maryland when these teams last played. I expect Utah to set up O’Keefe with some advantageous matchups with Maryland’s short-stick defenders from the left wing and up top. Bet O’Keefe to go over 1.5 goals at -165 on ESPN Bet.
I’m also betting Utah midfielder Dyson Williams to stay under 1.5 points at -115 on BetMGM. Williams has stayed under this mark in five of six career games and the opportunities for him to score are just too few. Williams is averaging just 5.3 touches per game, 2.5 passes per game and 2.3 shots per game. While he's is an elite goal-scorer, he likely won't have a high volume of chances and these odds are great to bet him to stay under 1.5 points.
As for Maryland, I’m betting TJ Malone to stay under 4.5 points. Malone has been the catalyst for the Whipsnakes’ success on offense this season, but five points is a lot to ask against this Utah defense. The 2024 PLL Rookie of the Year has five points or more in just four of 12 games this season and I trust Utah to limit him enough to stay under this mark. At -145 on BetMGM, these are good odds to bet Malone to stay under 4.5 points.
Picks: Under 23.5, Utah Archers -1.5 1st Half (0.5 unit), Mac O’Keefe Over 1.5 Goals, Dyson Williams Under 1.5 Points, TJ Malone Under 4.5 Points
