The Premier Lacrosse League Championship Series concludes Monday afternoon with a rematch between the Boston Cannons and Philadelphia Waterdogs. After defeating the Cannons 22-12 in their previous meeting, the Waterdogs enter the final as 3.5-point favorites. The total is 43.5 across sportsbooks, but I’m targeting a game prop for my best bet.
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Boston Cannons vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| Boston (+3.5) Odds | +184 |
| Philadelphia (-3.5) Odds | -230 |
| Total | 43.5 |
| Time | Monday · 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via FanDuel
I expected Boston to be able to force a faster pace in the first meeting between these teams, but Philadelphia managed to control the tempo and picked Boston apart on offense. I expect a better showing from Boston, but don’t know if we’ll see a full-on track meet in this game as teams enter their fifth game in six days. The total feels right at 43.5 this time around, so I’d rather bet this game to see a below-average number of two-point goals scored instead.
Philadelphia goaltender Matt DeLuca has allowed the second-fewest two-point goals with just seven allowed and has the lowest rate of two-point goals allowed per quarter at 0.5. Even more impressive has been the Waterdogs' ability to limit two-point shots. Philadelphia held Boston to just four shots beyond the arc and has allowed a series-low 10.75 two-point shots per game.
The Cannons as a team have allowed a handful more two-point goals than Philadelphia, but Boston starting goalie Colin Kirst has done a much better job at stopping shots beyond the arc than backup Adam Ghitelman. Kirst has allowed just nine two-point goals during the championship series despite seeing 41 shots from two-point range. His two-point goals allowed per quarter rate is 0.82 per quarter, and I expect him to play the entire game like he did in Boston's semifinal matchup.
Boston dug itself a big hole early in these teams' first meeting due to three two-point goals early in the first quarter. I expect Cannons to prioritize preventing Philadelphia's two-point attempts more than they did in the first game. While Boston will likely have more than just four two-point attempts, trust DeLuca and Kirst to keep the two-point goal total under nine Monday.
Bet under 8.5 two-point goals scored at +100 on FanDuel.
Pick: Under 8.5 Two-Point Goals (+100)
Update: This article originally had the time of the game incorrectly listed at 12:30 p.m. ET.
