The Premier Lacrosse League was on a league-wide bye this past weekend, but there is still futures betting value on the board. After three weeks of play, some teams have emerged as powerhouses while others are still trying to find their footing.
So, which teams are true contenders and which are just pretenders?
I provide my latest Premier Lacrosse League Power Rankings and Predictions for Week 4 below.
Premier Lacrosse League Power Rankings
1. New York Atlas
The currently undefeated New York Atlas take the top spot of our power rankings. After a 4-0 start and score differential of +19, New York is clearly the best team in the PLL.
Led by overwhelming MVP favorite Jeff Teat—he’s already -450 to take home the regular-season award through just four games—the Atlas offense has bullied teams with an average of 17.75 points per game.
Not only should New York be favored in almost every game going forward, but they’ll likely be a 2.5-point favorite in many more games this season. They’ve already drawn the often rare -2.5 in half their games this season, and bettors will have to think twice before fading them even as heavy favorites.
It'd be wrong to rank any other team at No. 1, but that doesn't mean Atlas are without their flaws.
Masked by their elite offense, the Atlas defense has been prone to penalties, particularly the non-releasable kind. Atlas lead the league in penalties and penalty minutes and have spent an average of three minutes per game man-down. While they eventually have pulled away thanks to their offense, penalties have allowed teams like Chaos and Redwoods to hang around.
They’ve also been prone to giving up two-point goals, having allowed seven so far this season, and they are more vulnerable than their final results have indicated. The lone bright spot has been Tim Troutner in net, but he’s still asked to make far too many heroic saves and will need a better effort in front when New York takes on teams like Utah and Philadelphia.
So, are we witnessing another 2022 Whipsnakes regular-season run, or will the Atlas stumble along the way to another playoff berth?
I expect somewhere in between. I don't expect an undefeated season with games against Boston, Utah and Philly still ahead, but seven or eight wins is likely the floor for this team. If the defense holds up against the rest of the high-powered offenses in the league, a championship appearance for the Atlas should be in the cards.
2. Utah Archers
The 2-1 Utah Archers may not be first in my PLL power rankings, but they’re much closer to New York than it probably seems. If Utah hadn’t allowed Brennan O’Neill to go nuclear in the fourth quarter of their Week 2 game, there might be more people talking about the defending champions as the best team in the PLL.
Despite the offense not looking nearly as prolific as the Atlas and the young defense going through some growing pains, the Archers are still firmly a top-two team in the PLL.
Utah is still the most-balanced team, and midfielder Tom Schreiber and goalie Brett Dobson could both be considered the best at their positions right now.
And did we mention that the normally stout defense is getting 2021 PLL defender of the year Graeme Hossack back next week? Hossack will help this defense get back on track and allow Cam Wyers to shift back up to LSM where he can defend midfielders and be more of a playmaker in transition.
While the offense has had a few quiet stretches during their three games, none have been overly concerning, and they’ve played well against three of the better defenses from last season. This team can beat anybody, and their path to the top seed is arguably even easier than New York’s given their conference opponents.
I think the margin between Utah and New York is much thinner than the current title odds indicate and recommend betting Utah to win the 2024 PLL Championship at the current price of +550 with value down to +500.
3. Boston Cannons
The Boston Cannons find themselves third despite an underwhelming start to the season. After getting blown out by Atlas, the Cannons have strung together two wins but haven't looked entirely dominant doing so.
While there are some new offenses struggling to build chemistry, it’s Boston's defense that has had some growing pains. Much like Atlas, penalties have been a huge issue, and given the reputations of Bryce Young and Garrett Epple, I don’t expect the issue of unnecessary roughness penalties to get better.
Yet, for a team whose defense was its Achilles heel last year, maybe a more aggressive defensive style is needed. Like New York, Boston has the offense to make up for potential shortcomings on defense, and with faceoff specialist Zac Tucci playing well, Boston should be able to go on plenty of scoring runs to take some pressure off the defense.
This offense is why the Cannons rank so highly, and while their stats haven’t been off the charts, the potential to finish as a top-ranked offense is still there. The Cannons have shown that they’re comfortable playing both fast or slow. They can make teams pay in transition and can pick defenses apart late in the shot clock in settled situations.
Because of this, I don’t expect to see Boston on the losing end of any blowouts again. While they may not be as balanced as New York, Utah and even Philadelphia, Boston will be a tough out for any team they face.
Boston isn’t a team I’d be running to the counter to bet for futures right now, but I think they’ll have value on a game-by-game basis as both a divisional underdog and short favorite against weaker Western Conference teams. If the defense can stay disciplined and string together several more impressive outings, then a trip back to the semifinals could be in their future.
4. Philadelphia Waterdogs
Yes, you read that right. Despite an 0-3 start to the season, I still think Philadelphia is the fourth-best team in the PLL. I’ve seen Philly ranked in other power rankings as low as seventh, but keep in mind these are supposed to be power rankings — not standings. If the sportsbooks had the Waterdogs rated that low, then Carolina would be favored this coming week, not Philadelphia.
The Waterdogs are closer to a top-three team than a bottom-three team, and their issues are being blown out of proportion. Their lack of a dedicated faceoff specialist has certainly been an easy scapegoat for a team that lost twice in overtime, with their game against Boston ending with Tucci scoring the game-winner off the opening draw.
I expect Coach Bill Tierney to remedy this issue by signing a faceoff specialist ahead of their next game. While I don't think the current free agent options are big needle movers, this will at least give Philly the option to counter and prevent transition chances off the draw—which has been the most detrimental consequence of not having a faceoff specialist.
The Waterdogs still boast a dynamic offense that has been doomed by slow starts. It has also been tough for Philly to find rhythm since stringing together consecutive offensive possessions is difficult when you’re effectively conceding possession off the faceoff.
Yet, when the Waterdogs offense is on, it looks like one of the better units in the league. While the defense has underperformed by its standards, there haven’t been any major red flags through three games.
The team has also suffered from some two-point variance by allowing five and failing to score a single goal beyond the arc so far this season. In fact, Philly has found the back of the net either the same amount or more times than their opponent in all three games but ended up on the losing end due to the two-ball.
With long-range shooters like Connor Kelly, Ryan Conrad and Jake Carraway on the roster, I expect some positive regression on two-pointers.
I asked those who read my preseason futures article to hold their nose and bet Philly to stay under their win total of 5.5. After selling high to start the season, I'm ready to buy low on the Waterdogs and think +1000 is way too long for a team three goals away from being 3-0.
Bet a quarter unit on Philadelphia to win the 2024 PLL Championship at +1000 with value down to +900.
5. Carolina Chaos
The 2-2 Carolina Chaos enter fifth in the power rankings. While Carolina sits in the bottom half of my power rankings, I actually think this team has potential to surpass Boston and Philadelphia. The defense has been the best unit in the league through three weeks even without Blaze Riorden in net for more than 10 of 16 quarters of play.
Carolina is still a team I expect to make the postseason, and their schedule is favorable enough for them to finish with their highest win total since 2019. Their offense has held them back from being above .500, but their issues are more a lack of chemistry and inexperience, not a broken system or lack of talent.
They've certainly missed the presence of world-class midfielder Dhane Smith so far this season but have gotten contributions from a handful of new players in his absence.
Turnovers—particularly unforced errors—were an issue to start but have become less of a problem each game. Additionally, while Carolina boasts the second-best shooting percentage in the PLL, their shot selection has been an issue.
Whether it’s passing up good shooting opportunities for perfect ones or taking bad shots early in the shot clock, Carolina will need to clean up its decision-making before the offense can finally take the next leap.
That said, the Chaos have the personnel to do so and should be poised for a big second half of the season. They're going to be a great team to bet on a game-by-game basis and might even have some value as a contender—though I'd wait until after next weekend to bet them in the futures market.
6. Maryland Whipsnakes
The Whipsnakes are a tough team to rank given their potential is certainly high, but they’ve lacked consistency on both sides of the ball.
We often hear comparisons to Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots when discussing Coach Jim Stagnitta and the Whipsnakes' early dominance in the PLL from 2019 to 2022, but I'd argue a better comparison is Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs.
The best Whipsnakes teams were not devoid of star power but were built around veteran leadership and a trust in the system that Coach Stags has built. However, Maryland no longer has its Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli in John Haus, Michael Ehrhardt and Jay Carlson. Will Stags and Co. be able to adapt?
I think Coach Stagnitta has reshaped his roster enough to be competitive, but Maryland might be another season away from making another title run, especially if last year's rookie of the year Tucker Dordevic misses more time.
The defense has not looked great through three games, but they've also played three elite offenses. The decision to start Brendan Krebs over Kyle Bernlohr in their past two games may be tough to accept for long-time Maryland fans, but it has been the right one.
The biggest issue has been the play of Maryland’s short-stick defensive midfielders, and life after former Whipsnakes eraser Ty Warner has been tougher than anticipated. Still, this unit should end up closer to the top than the bottom and is a lesser concern than the offense.
The offense has lacked an identity and has gone through scoring droughts in each of their three games. Yet, it’s clear that Maryland wants to run its offense through rookie TJ Malone, and the results have been largely successful.
Offensive midfield depth has been the biggest weakness, but Jack Coras and Kevin Winkoff could end up giving Maryland the downhill dodging ability they’ve been lacking while waiting for Dordevic to return.
Yet for now, an over-reliance on transition and two-pointers through three games led me to rank Maryland closer to the bottom than the top. The Whipsnakes may have value in certain spots as plus-money underdogs, but I expect them to hover around the playoff bubble all season, which makes any futures on them risky, even at long odds.
7. Denver Outlaws
Denver might be the team with the largest range of outcomes. Thanks to their young offensive talent headlined by top pick Brennan O'Neill, the Outlaws may have the highest ceiling. Yet, their woes on defense—which was supposed to be an area of strength entering this season—paired with their inexperience also gives them the lowest floor.
Much like Carolina, this Denver offense is a work in progress, but the issue certainly isn’t lack of talent. O’Neill has already arrived as one of the toughest players to cover in the league, and Graham Bundy, Cross Ferrara, Jack Myers, Josh Zawada and Sam Handley are all contributing in their own ways.
Despite the presence of two superstars in O’Neill and Logan Wisnauskas, this unit is ego-ess and could be one of the better units in the league with more reps. Consistency will be key for this squad, but chemistry isn’t built overnight.
The defense is a far greater concern. On paper, the Outlaws should have been able to pick up where they left off last season when they held opponents under 12 points per game. Yet, a banged up Sean Sconone got shelled in their first game, and Owen McElroy didn’t fare much better in their second game.
With just a two-game sample size, it’s tough to gauge where this defense is, but I expect some trials when facing offenses like New York, Philadelphia, Boston and Utah again.
I still expect this team to struggle to stay at .500 this season, and another year without a postseason appearance might be the likeliest of outcomes.
8. California Redwoods
This ranking has less to do with California's earliest two results and more to do with their potential. After all, the Redwoods nearly left Carolina with a victory and suffered their second loss at the hands of the best team in the PLL despite playing fairly well on offense and facing off at 67.6% against the 2022 PLL MVP.
Yet, goalie Jack Kelly and faceoff man T.D. Ierlan deserve a lot of credit for giving the Redwoods a fighting chance in both games. Specialists are able to turn good teams into great ones, but California's defense may end up the weakest in the league, and I don't think the offense cracks the top five.
While I didn't have high hopes for the Redwoods this season, I admittedly expected them to still get at least four wins. Despite only playing two games, I'm less confident they'll get there, and there are far more questions than answers with this team.
Will they continue to get all-star level play from Ryder Garnsey, or will his tendency to play hero ball cause this offense to consistently stall?
How much time will defender Chris Fake miss, and how will an already thin California defense deal with his absence?
Will they get consistent play from Chris Gray?
These are all major questions for a team that has talent but often struggles to consistently play four consecutive quarters of great lacrosse. I don’t think California will have nearly as poor of a season as the one-win Chrome did last year, but they’re not a team I’ll be looking to bet anytime soon.
