The 2024 Premier Lacrosse League playoffs begin with a Week 11 rematch between the Boston Cannons and Carolina Chaos. Boston is as short as -200 on the moneyline and a 1.5-point favorite again after narrowly defeating Carolina in overtime to wrap up the regular season. The total opened at 21.5 but has since moved to 22.5 everywhere. Let’s take a look at my Cannons vs Chaos picks for Monday's quarterfinals matchup.
No. 3 Boston Cannons vs. No. 6 Carolina Chaos
| Boston (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -200 |
| Carolina (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +154 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Monday · 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via DraftKings
The biggest news ahead of this rematch is the suspension of Carolina’s top defender Jack Rowlett. Rowlett was given a one-game suspension for a high hit against Alex Vardaro in Carolina’s last game against Boston. The hit led to a Boston power play and while the Cannons were unable to cash in, Rowlett’s aggressiveness was a major storyline for the game.
Jack Rowlett's overaggressive defense actually led to two goals before the defender exited the game with an injury right after the start of the third quarter. He slid too early on each of Boston’s first two goals, which led to both Asher Nolting and Marcus Holman taking advantage of the extra space. By all accounts, it was a poor showing for Rowlett before leaving half-way through the game. Yet, Carolina still nearly won the game outright.
While Boston hitting 10 pipes in the game certainly suggests the game could have been a bit more lopsided than the overtime finish we got, Boston did not dominate a Carolina defense that didn’t have Rowlett playing his best and saw four-time goalie of the year Blaze Riorden out for nearly three quarters of the game. While I expect Boston to still edge Carolina, the Chaos are undervalued at their current odds and too much is being made of the loss of Rowlett.
Not having Rowlett is certainly impactful, but Carolina’s defense has always been greater than the sum of its parts. That’s evident given that they didn’t have a defender of the year candidate this season, despite ranking first in nearly every statistical defensive category. A defense of Jarrod Neumann, Will Bowen and Jack Posey is still a solid unit in front of Riorden. At +154 on the moneyline, I wouldn’t fault anyone for backing an Andy Towers-led Carolina team that is 7-2 straight up as an underdog in the playoffs since 2020.
Yet, for this matchup, I’m targeting the first half spread and moneyline. Carolina is facing a Boston team that has been prone to slow starts all season. The Cannons are 3-5-2 on the first half moneyline and have only led by two goals or more at half once in 10 games this season. (Furthermore, that one time came after a fluky two-point goal at the buzzer gave them a three-goal lead over the Waterdogs at half.) Meanwhile, Carolina is 3-3-4 on the first half moneyline and has trailed by one goal or fewer in eight of 10 games this year.
Trust Coach Towers and Carolina to hang with Boston in the first half and bet a full unit on Chaos +1.5 first half at -130 and a half unit on Chaos first half moneyline at +130 on BetMGM or DraftKings.
Last Monday, I gave out three player props to bet earlier in the week and I’m back with two more for this game.
The first player I’m targeting is Pat Kavanagh. The sixth overall pick in the 2024 PLL Draft has spent time at both attack and midfield this season. He spent most of his time at the midfield in Boston’s last game against Carolina, but he’s likely to split more time with lefty Chris Aslanian down low in this game. While Kavanagh is a natural attackman, Boston offensive coordinator Jim Mitchell has strategically played Kavanagh all over the field to draw better matchups for the versatile attackman. Whether at attack or midfield, Kavanagh will be heavily involved in exploiting a Carolina defense that is missing its top defender. Kavanagh had a career-high eight shots and 28 touches against the Chaos in Week 11 and recorded two goals and an assist. He’s also scored a pair of goals in half his games this season.
His goals prop is currently 1.5 on FanDuel and even though it’s moved from +152 to +136, the odds are still favorable to bet Kavanagh to have a multi-goal game. Bet Kavanagh to go over 1.5 goals.
I’m also betting Boston defender Cade Van Raaphorst to score a two-point goal on Monday. While van Raaphorst has yet to score a two-point goal this season, the volume of shots has been there. CVR is tied for third in shots from beyond the arc with 18 this year. While some of these shots could be considered “possession shots”—a shot taken with the intention of missing wide while still retaining possession to allow the offense to set up—the Boston defender has nearly scored more than several times this season, including hitting a pipe against the Chaos in his most recent game.
Furthermore, Jake Pulver is back in the lineup at close defense, so van Raaphorst will be running a good amount of long-stick midfield in this game, which should increase his chances of scoring beyond the arc. He has nine career two-point goals including four in seven games last season and given his shot volume, he could notch his 10th on Monday.
Bet a 0.2 unit on van Raaphorst to score a two-point goal at +400 on DraftKings.
Picks: Carolina Chaos -1.5 1st Half, Carolina Chaos Moneyline 1st Half (0.5 unit), Pat Kavanagh Over 1.5 Goals, Cade Van Raaphorst Over 0.5 Two-Point Goal (0.2 unit)
