The second quarterfinal game of the weekend features two of the youngest rosters in the league in the Maryland Whipsnakes and Denver Outlaws. Maryland is a 1.5-point favorite after defeating Denver in its first meeting, 16-9. The total is currently 24.5 across sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look at my favorite picks and predictions for this quarterfinals matchup between the Maryland Whipsnakes and Denver Outlaws.
No. 4 Maryland Whipsnakes vs. No. 5 Denver Outlaws
| Maryland (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -125 |
| Denver (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +105 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Monday · 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM
No team has been hotter than the Whipsnakes, who enter the playoffs having won four straight, including outlasting the Outlaws in Denver to wrap their regular season. While the first meeting was fairly tight for three quarters before Maryland pulled away, I expect another Whipsnakes win on Monday night.
While Maryland isn’t without its weaknesses, it matches up well with Denver. The Outlaws have made teams pay in transition and their defense has held below-average offenses to season lows. Yet, Maryland’s offense is far better than California and Carolina’s and it showed that by dropping 16 points on Denver in week 10.
The Whipsnakes exploited Denver off-ball, took advantage of defensive mismatches and made the Outlaws pay in unsettled situations via strong riding and transition offense. While Denver hung around thanks to some fast break goals its offense never really got into rhythm and was stifled by a strong performance from Maryland goaltender Brendan Krebs.
While Maryland’s defense isn’t as strong as in years past, they were aggressive with its slides—particularly in disrupting rookie Brennan O’Neill—and forced Denver into short-shot clock situations. While both teams feature players making their first playoff appearance, Denver’s inexperience has shown numerous times throughout the season and has relied too heavily on opportunistic plays. Most of Denver’s goals against the Whips came in unsettled situations and two of its goals in particular were scored when Maryland defenders broke its sticks and were forced to play without them.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Maryland run away with a win again in this one and recommend betting Whipsnakes -1.5 at +110.
Not only do I expect Maryland to advance, but I like its current odds to win the 2024 PLL Championship at +700 on ESPN Bet. Maryland has proven they can hang with anybody in the league. The Whipsnakes have a win against their potential semi-final opponent in New York, beat Boston just a few weeks ago, lost to Carolina in overtime and have improved drastically since facing a now-banged-up Utah squad in week 5. They’ll have a great shot at pulling off two straight upsets if they get past Denver, so I recommend betting them to win the title at +600 or better.
I also recommend betting Maryland to record the most shots on goal in its game against Denver. Maryland had 26 shots on goal to Denver’s 22 when these teams last faced and while that’s not a huge margin, the season-long numbers are much kinder to the Whipsnakes. Maryland has averaged 2.8 more shots on goal per game and has the league’s second-highest shots-on-goal percentage at 64.3%. Meanwhile, the Outlaws sit dead last with a shot-on-goal percentage of 58.5% this season. Bet Maryland to record the most shots on goal at -110 on BetMGM.
Finally, after betting one rookie of the year finalist earlier in the week, I’m fading another in O’Neill. The first overall pick in the 2024 PLL Draft has had a few big games this season, but it’s mostly been feast or famine. He’s had four or more points in just four of 10 games this season and was held to just one point by the Whipsnakes in week 10. That lone goal was also very well-defended, with O’Neill scoring with one hand from out far with just a couple of seconds left on the shot clock. Maryland slid early and often to the big lefty and the rest of the Denver offense struggled to adapt.
While I don’t expect Maryland to completely erase O’Neill from the stat sheet, it should be tough sledding for the Denver attackman. Even if Denver can generate offense off O’Neill drawing slides, it likely won’t result in many assists for him. Bet O’Neill to stay under 3.5 points at -150 on FanDuel.
I also like betting O’Neill to stay under 5.5 shots on goal at -170 on DraftKings. While this may seem like a steep price to pay, O’Neill has had six or more shots on goal just three times this season and Maryland will make getting off shots in general difficult with its overaggressive slides. Don’t fear the juice and bet O’Neill to stay under 5.5 shots on goal.
Game Picks: Maryland Whipsnakes -1.5; Maryland Whipsnakes Most SOG; Brennan O’Neill Under 3.5 Points; Brennan O’Neill Under 5.5 SOG
Futures:Maryland Whipsnakes to Win PLL Championship (+700)
