The 2024 Premier Lacrosse League playoffs continue this weekend with two semifinal matchups. The New York Atlas and Maryland Whipsnakes kick things off with their third meeting this season. Let’s take a look at my Atlas vs Whipsnakes PLL picks for Saturday.
No. 1 New York Atlas vs. No. 4 Maryland Whipsnakes
| New York (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -152 |
| Maryland (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +124 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
New York and Maryland split the regular season series, but both matchups occurred before the all-star break and both rosters have undergone some major changes since these teams last met. The Whipsnakes key contributors at midfield have changed with Adam Poitras and Levi Anderson continuing to have steady production since their PLL debuts against New York in Week 4. Maryland also added midfielder Ryan Conrad via a trade.
As for Atlas, the roster has seen as many changes, but Liam Entenmann—who only played a quarter against the Whipsnakes through two games—has cemented himself as New York’s starter. Midfielder Payton Cormier has also displayed his potential, following up his quiet rookie debut against Maryland with a six-point performance in New York’s last regular season game and just Cormier’s second professional appearance.
I think Maryland has upset potential, but the moneyline price isn’t enough for me to bet them to upset the odds-on favorites. If you bet the Whipsnakes to win the title at +700 like I suggest prior to the playoffs, you’re better off letting that ride and finding value elsewhere.
Rather than bet a side in what I expect to be a close game, I’m going bet this total to go over 25.5.
Both games between these teams went over this mark, with 30 points scored in the first game and 28 points in the second. While Entenmann starting gives this game a better chance to stay under 30, the style of play between these teams and efficiency on offense makes this total still a couple points too low at 25.5.
Both offenses rank in the top three in shooting percentage, have been extremely efficient utilizing the 32-second shot clock off faceoffs and have a tendency to push the tempo in transition as well.
Meanwhile, both defenses have allowed plenty of opposing fast break chances and are tied for seventh in scores allowed average at 12.4 per game. Ultimately, a close, fast-paced game is a recipe for a high-scoring matchup on Saturday. Bet this game to go over 25.5 at -105 on FanDuel.
Part of why I think this total could be high is because I think Whipsnakes goaltender Brendan Krebs could struggle against this Atlas offense. Krebs relieved former Maryland starter Kyle Bernlohr in the first game between these teams, making nine saves and allowing 11 goals. While he fared much better when playing the full 60 minutes in their second meeting, making 14 saves and allowing just 12 goals, I don’t expect the same level of success in game three. New York also has the offensive midfielders to exploit Maryland’s weaker short-stick defensive midfield unit, something they didn’t do too well in their most recent loss to the Whipsnakes.
Krebs only recorded 14 saves or more three times in 10 starts this season, so -146 on FanDuel is still a good price to bet him to stay under 13.5 saves, despite it moving from -125 earlier in the week.
I’m targeting the props for two other Whipsnakes players.
In just two games with Maryland, midfielder Ryan Conrad has matched his point total from seven games with Philadelphia. Maryland has utilized Conrad better than the Waterdigs did, but he’s still been more a product of the Whipsnakes’ system and his points total if 2.5 is a point too high for this game. Expect New York’s defensive midfielders to limit Conrad on Saturday and bet him to stay under 2.5 points at -135 on DraftKings.
I am betting Mike Chanenchuk to have an impact for Maryland. Chanenchuk has recorded a goal in 45 of 63 PLL games, including nine of 10 postseason games. His odds to score a goal in the first quarter are too long at +235, so I recommend betting 0.2 unit on him to score in the first period. Another potentially safer angle is to also bet him to surpass 1.5 points at -115 on BetMGM. Chanenchuk had five points against New York in Week 1 and has two or more points in eight of 10 career PLL playoff games. He also has the range to hit this over with one two-point shot, so I like him to go over his points prop on Saturday.
Finally, I’m betting Xander Dickson to go over 2.5 points against Maryland. Dickson is one of New York’s leading goal scorers and has recorded three or more points in eight of 10 games. While Dickson has mostly been padding his stats with goals, I prefer betting his points prop of 2.5 even at -145 on BetMGM, given he’s been utilized as a feeder more in recent games and New York could try to use him more behind the cage to throw an added wrinkle at the Maryland defense. Bet Dickson to finish with three or more points in this game.
Picks: Over 25.5, Brendan Krebs Under 13.5 Saves, Ryan Conrad Under 2.5 Points, Mike Chanenchuk Over 1.5 Points & 1st Quarter Anytime Goal Scorer (0.2 unit), Xander Dickson Over 2.5 Points
