The Premier Lacrosse League semifinals continue with arguably the best rivalry in the league. The Archers are favored in their fourth elimination game with the Chaos. Chaos has ended the Archers’ season in the three previous games and Carolina and Utah split the 2024 regular season series. Let’s take a look at my Archers vs Chaos picks for Saturday.
No. 2 Utah Archers vs. No. 6 Carolina Chaos
| Utah (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -166 |
| Carolina (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +130 |
| Total | 21.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings
When these teams first played in June, the total of 24.5 was too high, so we successfully bet the under. Then for round two in August, the total of 21.5 was too low, so we cashed by betting the over. For the third and final 2024 meeting, the total if 21.5 once again, but with some notable absences. To make a Goldilocks reference, this total feels "just right."
This total has volatility because both teams love to push in transition, but also defend well in transition so we could so a wide range of outcomes. I think we're in for a lower-scoring affair much like the first meeting, but the total is a point too low in my opinion at 21.5. If we see a quick surge of goals, I'd look to play an under of 23.5 or 24.5 as this game should slow down as it goes on, but it's a pass on the pregame line. While Archers still managed to win their final two games without Tom Schreiber for six quarters, his absence makes me concerned for Utah.
Few players are worth factoring into the line when they're ruled out, but Schreiber is definitely one of them. I make the Utah midfielder worth around 10 to 15 cents on the moneyline and while I'd still have Utah favored, +130 is too long for a Carolina team that has historically outplayed Utah in the postseason, even with Schreiber active.
Yet, you don't need to go back any further than this year too see how evenly matched these teams are. Carolina trailed by a goal before a late goal from Schreiber gave Utah a 9-7 win in their first game. Then, Carolina outlasted Utah in the rematch, 15-14. Schreiber played a huge role in both games and his presence demands the attention of one of Carolina's long-pole defenders. The Chaos prefer to slide as little as possible and trust their defenders to either wim their one-on-one matchups or four-time goaltender of the year Blaze Riorden to make big saves if they don't.
Yet, Schreiber demands an early slide often. The 2023 PLL MVP's ability to either score off the dodge or create quality scoring chances for his teammates when drawing early slides is an area Carolina has struggled to defend.
With Schreiber out, Carolina has much more flexibility with how it defends and while Connor Fields, Grant Ament and Mac O'Keefe have all been successful scoring off the dodge, many of their goals against Carolina were actually well-defended and took heroic individual efforts.
While expect Ament and faceoff specialist Mike Sisselberger to play, they are both listed as questionable, which could be another blow for Utah.
As for the Carolina offense, they were effective in dodging Utah's short stick defenders and had plenty of quality looks on cage in both games. Archers netminder bailed out Utah's defense often and while he's similar to Riorden in his ability to drastically impact a game, I expect Carolina to still edge Utah if this game turns into a goaltending clinic.
Bet Carolina to win outright at +130 on bet365 or DraftKings.
While I expect Carolina to win, I'm expecting another close contest. The margin of victory in games between these two teams has been greater than two points just five times in 13 total meetings, with only one of the last four game seeing a team win by more than one score. Expect another classic in this rivalry and bet a half unit on the margin of victory to be 1-2 goals at +130 on BetMGM.
I'm also targeting a couple of player props.
This Carolina offense has underperformed in spots this season, but when they're on—like in their 15-14 win over Archers earlier this year— it's often on the back of star attackman Josh Byrne. Last week we cashed betting his points prop, but this week I’m targeting his goals prop of 1.5.
Byrne has scored multiple goals in five of 10 games in 2024 including both against the Archers this year. He’s also had two or more in 11 of his last 17 games. Utah’s transition defense has been an achilles heel and long-stick midfielder Cam Wyers being ruled out earlier today won’t help things. I expect Byrne to have plenty of chances as a goal scorer and -113 on FanDuel is a good price to bet him to score at least two goals on Saturday.
Finally, I’m betting Tre Leclaire to stay under his points prop of 2.5. Leclaire has had a great 2024 season, but a few factors make me like betting him to be limited on Saturday.
First, Carolina’s defense has been playing really well recently and without Schreiber to draw the attention of one of their long-stick defenders, Leclaire is a prime candidate to draw a long pole. Leclaire has only had three or more points in four of 10 games this season and one of them came when playing attack when an injured Matt Moore left the last game against Chaos. Moore is back in the lineup, so Leclaire will likely run out of the box on Saturday night and three points could be a lot to ask in a potentially low-scoring game. Bet Leclaire to stay under 2.5 points at +100 on DraftKings.
Picks: Carolina Chaos Moneyline, 1-2 Goal Winning Margin (0.5 unit), Josh Byrne Over 1.5 Goals, Tre Leclaire Under 2.5 Points
