The Premier Lacrosse League’s offseason tournament is almost here, with the 2024 PLL Championship Series kicking off today at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
There are some important differences from the regular PLL season bettors should know before wagering on this unique round-robin tournament.
Let’s dive into my four tips for betting on the PLL Championship Series.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
1. Forget Each PLL Team's 2023 Season
While this tip is a tad hyperbolic, you really shouldn't put too much stock in how each of the four teams did last summer.
In 2023, Atlas and Chrome — two teams that have historically struggled during the PLL's main regular season — made the PLL Championship Series final. Meanwhile, the PLL's only two-time champion, Whipsnakes, finished the series with the worst point differential and no wins.
So why the sudden success for two normally struggling teams and a sharp decline for a perennial contender?
For one thing, the rules are completely different. Instead of each team fielding 10 players, there are six from each team on the field and all but the goalie go back and forth between offense and defense. The field is also smaller, the shot clock is shorter, the 2-point arc is 2 yards closer, and all players use short sticks.
Perhaps the biggest change is this: Instead of a faceoff after each goal, goalies pull the ball out of the net and resume play immediately with a pass.
In addition to the different rule set, all four rosters feature notable absences and a few new additions. While the format was new to everyone last year, some teams have experience with this format or the Olympic version of Sixes.
The Utah Archers are the only returning team from last year's championship series, but they also saw the biggest roster overhaul. Chris Bates has the advantage of having coached this exact format last season, yet only six players on his roster played in the series a year ago.
One who did, Marcus Holman, is now on the Boston Cannons, who benefit from having the majority of their starters on the roster. Only one player on their 12-man roster wasn't active for all 12 of their games during the 2023 summer season.
The Cannons also have an assistant coach in Brodie Merrill, who is a future Hall of Famer in the PLL and National Lacrosse League — a format more similar in style to Sixes. He also coached Team Canada to a Gold Medal in the 2022 World Games, which featured an almost identical rule set.
Another team with most of their starters and a coach with Sixes coaching experience is the California Redwoods. John Grant Jr., a Hall of Famer in both leagues, was also a part of that Team Canada staff and is an assistant coach with the Redwoods. California's roster features a handful of shooters with range, three players from Team USA's Sixes roster and a goaltender duo that boasts the best clean save rates among goalies in the series.
While the Philadelphia Waterdogs are without their starting goaltender and a handful of key players, they have four members who either played in last year's championship series, NLL or 2022 World Games. Despite some experience, they'll still rely heavily on some young, two-way weapons that saw limited time this summer. But they have a lot of potential to thrive in this format.
Ultimately, you may still recognize these team names and colors, but forget what you think you know about them heading into the PLL Championship Series.
2. Shop for Lines
This is a universal gambling tip, but it's especially important when betting the PLL Championship Series. Six different sportsbooks are offering odds this year, and with 24 hours between games, discrepancies between sportsbooks tend to happen more often.
We've already seen differences in the totals for the opening matchup featuring the Cannons and Redwoods: BetMGM, ESPN Bet and FanDuel have the total at 45.5, Caesars and DraftKings are hanging 44.5, and bet365 has 43.5.
Whether you're betting the over or under, you'll want to make sure you get the best number. Take advantage of Action's promotions for bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN Bet, DraftKings and FanDuel and make sure you have multiple ways to bet the PLL Championship Series
Also, while pre-game opportunities to middle are rare, you can set yourself up for a middle during the game with live betting available. And speaking if live betting …
3. Take Advantage of Live Betting
Last year, FanDuel offered live betting for the 2023 PLL Championship Series, and both Caesars and DraftKings have offered it for the PLL at certain points. With the high volume of scoring, betting live totals or spreads can be profitable. As mentioned, you could bet a pre-game over in a game that gets off to a fast start then bet a live under that rises more than six points above the pre-game mark. Knowing that live betting is available, you can also be more patient.
Expecting a lower scoring game, but wish the total was higher? Bet a live under at a better number after an unsustainable surge of goals occurs at the start. Sense a comeback coming from a team trailing? Bet its live spread at a few points greater than its pre-game number or even bet them to win outright at a big moneyline price.
Often the best edges are found during live betting.
4. Consider Goaltending and 2-Point Shooting
These may seem like obvious indicators, but with this rule set, two-point shooting is more important than ever and solid goaltending is more than just who's stopping the most shots.
| Team | 2-PT % | PPG | Pt. Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archers | 31.6% | 23.25 | -4 |
| Atlas | 43.7% | 28.40 | 35 |
| Chrome | 32.3% | 21.0 | -2 |
| Whipsnakes | 20.4% | 18.50 | -29 |
Data from 2023 PLL Championship Series
While the New York Atlas aren't in this year's PLL Championship Series, their impact on last year's series will still be felt. Even though they fell a goal short of winning the series, Atlas showed that the 2-point shot was the key to dominating this blueprint. Not only did they shoot a series-high 43.7% beyond the arc (the next closest team shot 32.3%), they nearly matched their overall shooting percentage of 43.9%.
Knowing a team’s 2-point tendencies is key when betting totals. Last year, there was an average of 46 points scored across the nine games. Games featuring the Whipsnakes, the league’s worst 2-point shooting team, saw an average of 44.25 points scored, and the two games they played that weren’t against the Atlas, they averaged just 40.5 points. Games featuring Atlas, the league’s best 2-point shooting team, featured an average of 49.8 points per game and 51 points per game in the three contests not against the Whipnsakes.
Two players from last year's Atlas roster, Romar Dennis (Redwoods) and Jake Carraway (Waterdogs), return with new teams and will be relied on heavily along with the other top deep threats in the league. In addition to Dennis and Carraway, Boston's Holman and Utah's Ryan Aughavin, Matt Moore and Cole Williams return. Sergio Perkovic, Nakeie Montgomery, Ryan Conrad, Chris Aslanian and Matt Campbell are all other names to watch for when considering shooting beyond the arc. Expect teams to lean heavily on their 2-point shooters this week.
Knowing which goaltenders are starting is perhaps even more critical. Teams will likely play both goalies in their first couple games, with each playing a half in order to conserve energy. Last year, Archers played both their goalies almost equally, while Whipsnakes were forced to rely on one goalie the entire time due to an injury and Atlas and Chrome rode the hot hand as the week progressed.
Last year’s winner Chrome got the most out of starting goalie Sean Sconone, who stopped 48.3% of shots and added three assists through five games. If you watched how Chrome performed when Sconone played as opposed to when backup Owen McElory was in net, then you likely weren’t too surprised to see Chrome do substantially better. This nuance gets lost in the final box score, but knowing which goalie is starting and whether they’re likely to play the entire game can give you a significant edge when betting.
How you end your offensive possessions is the #1 key to defensive efficiency (and vice versa) in sixes pic.twitter.com/2o8yAccN4Q
— Joe Keegan (@joekeegs) February 11, 2024
How goalies fare against 2-point shots and their outlet passing success (after saves or goals allowed) are two other specific indicators to key in on. According to PLL analyst Joe Keegan, teams scored on 44.1% of possessions that started with a clean save and Redwoods goalies Jack Kelly (39.3%) and Tim Troutner (38.6%) lead all goalies in this tournament in clean save rate. Meanwhile, Boston goaltender Colin Kirst boasted the best save percentage of shots beyond 13 yards last summer (76.8%) with no other goalie in the tournament stopping above 67%.
These are the types of stats to key in on when evaluating each team. Don’t simply rely on the final scores and consider two-point success and goaltending when betting the PLL Championship Series this week.
