The 2023-24 National Lacrosse League season kicked off this past weekend with only a five game slate. Every team will have a game under their belt after this upcoming weekend, but if you're a portfolio bettor like me, now is a great time to place some NLL Championship futures. Let’s take a look at the three NLL title futures you should bet right now!
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
The Favorite: Toronto Rock
The Toronto Rock have the second-best odds to win the 2023 NLL Championship and sit behind just the San Diego Seals and Buffalo Bandits in the title odds market. If you follow me on the Action App, you hopefully saw me log the Rock at +850 and tailed appropriately two weeks ago. Yet, if you missed that number, I still think the window to bet the Rock is open.
The loss of 2023 NLL Defender of the Year Latrell Harris for the season and early injuries to 2023 MVP candidate Tom Schreiber and defender Chris Corbeil are certainly not ideal, but the Rock made sure they have plenty of offensive depth this season, adding forwards Mark Matthews, Dan Lintner and Chris Boushy via trades. Their defense should also still be able to do its job in front of one of best goalies in the league in Nick Rose.
Toronto general manager and owner Jamie Dawick swung for the fences this offseason in hopes of finally getting past the Buffalo Bandits in the playoffs—the team that has eliminated them in three straight postseasons—and now they might not even have to worry about facing Buffalo in the playoffs until the NLL Finals!
Thanks to the NLL’s elimination of conferences, we very well could see Toronto and Buffalo—who have had the best records through the last two seasons—in the title game.
I think Toronto is right there with the current favorites in Buffalo and San Diego (both no longer than +700), but the Rock benefit from an easier opening schedule, while Buffalo and San Diego face off next week. This sets up Toronto to potentially be the favorite in come January, making now potentially the best time to “buy low” on the Rock.
Bet my personal favorite to win it all at +750 before it moves.
Pick: 2 Units on Toronto Rock to Win NLL Championship (+750 on BetMGM/DraftKings)
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The Dark Horse: Halifax Thunderbirds
Another team that should benefit from the elimination of conferences is the Halifax Thunderbirds, who ironically have seen their season end at the hands of the Toronto Rock during the past two postseasons. The Thunderbirds didn’t do a whole lot to get better on paper this offseason, opting to maintain their seasoned corps instead, but this team has been closer to competing for a title than their playoff record suggests.
While they opened the season without 2022-23 leading scorer Randy Staats and fellow forward Eric Fannell, they dispelled any doubts of their depth with a convincing win over Saskatchewan last weekend. While Halifax will certainly be looking to take the next steps in the form of postseason success, +1000 still has value when you consider that Thunderbirds are typically good at beating the teams they should and competing with the teams favored ahead of them.
I believe Halifax can take that next step and think they’ll get lumped into the same conversations as Buffalo, San Diego and Toronto rather quickly in the coming weeks. The already 1-0 squad faces New York, Philadelphia and Albany in their next three games and should be favored in all of them. Similarly to Toronto, we could see an undefeated start before they face Toronto at home on January 12.
I don’t expect either team’s odds to be longer than they are now when that time comes, making this the window to bet on both teams. Much like Toronto, this is a veteran-heavy team with a general manager that is going to make trades to give them the best opportunity to win come May. Bet them now at this favorable price.
Pick: 1.5 Units on Halifax Thunderbirds to Win NLL Championship (+1000 on bet365/BetMGM/DraftKings)
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The Sleeper: Rochester Knighthawks
Unlike last season, I was fully prepared for the market to provide little to no value on the 2023-24 Rochester Knighthawks. If you followed me last year, we bet the Knighthawks at an absurd +5000 at the start of the season before they proceeded to win six straight to open the season and eventually made the playoffs with a 10-8 record.
No one expected the Knighthawks to perform so well last season and despite losing Holden Cattoni and Thomas Hoggarth in the offseason, the additions of Dan Lomas and 2022 first overall pick Thomas McConvey made up for those losses on paper.
So, when the Knighthawks opened as long as +4000 on one sportsbook last week, I started my Rochester position. The odds dropped to +3500 shortly after and I thought surely the market would properly adjust following the NLL’s opening weekend.
But it didn’t.
Despite a comeback win against last year’s West Conference runner-up, the Knighthawks are still as long as +2500 heading into their game against Saskatchewan.
While I don't necessarily put Rochester necessarily in the same tier as Toronto and Halifax, their odds should not be closer to last year’s bottom-feeders in the Vancouver Warriors and Las Vegas Desert Dogs (both who lost last week) than their fellow 2023 playoff participants.
Now their schedule doesn’t do them many favors, having to play the defending champion Buffalo Bandits, Halifax Thunderbirds and Georgia Swarm all twice this year. Yet, these odds imply that the Knighthawks will be a bottom-five team.
Rochester is still very much a playoff contender that has wins against five of the other seven teams in last year’s playoffs during this 20-game stretch. While they aren’t one of the top favorites, their odds should be much closer to +1400 like on some other sportsbooks.
Bet this “sleeper” team to be in the mix come playoff time now. It will likely be the last chance you get at this current price.
Pick: 0.5 Unit on Rochester Knighthawks to Win NLL Championship (+2500 on BetMGM)
