We are almost at the midpoint of the 2023 National Lacrosse League season and I have three bets to kick off Week 11 on Friday night. So far this season, my NLL picks have gone 30-19 for +9.72 units. Let’s start off another weekend right with bets on a side, a total and a player prop.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check outmy guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Georgia Swarm vs. Toronto Rock (-2.5)
| Toronto Odds | -280 |
| Georgia Odds | +220 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
The winless Georgia Swarm host the red-hot Rock, who are on a five-game win streak after a big win over the Riptide last week. The Rock are 2.5-point favorites on most sportsbooks, though Canadian sportsbook CoolBet Canada has made them 3.5-point favorites. The only other time this season that an NLL team was a 3.5-point favorite was in Week 6 when bet365 made the Buffalo Bandits 3.5-point favorites against … the Georgia Swarm.
Despite being 0-5 and potentially nearing a fire sale at the trade deadline, the Swarm have looked much improved in their past two games, which is in large part thanks to rookie goaltender Brett Dobson getting the start in net. The Swarm should be competitive going forward if they decide to retain their key players during this trade window. However, this matchup against the Rock is a bad one across the board.
Since their 1-2 start, Toronto has looked like a team on a mission, winning five straight and securing the East Conference’s best odds to win the 2023 NLL Finals. The advanced metrics back that up as LaxMetrics ranks them first in Team WAR with 2.878 wins above replacement over a hypothetical 100-game span. Along with Halifax and San Diego, Toronto is one of the only teams with a rating of higher than 1.000.
The one constant has been Goaltender of the Year favorite Nick Rose, who has the lowest goals against average with 7.79 GAA — the next closest goalie is Alex Buque with 9.44. Rose has been nearly impossible to score on, stopping 81% of shots faced — tied for the best in the NLL.
On the flipside, the offense has also done its part. In five of the Rock’s six wins, they’ve covered the spread and won by an average of 7.67 goals. They also have a positive goal differential of +39 through eight games. The only time they’ve failed to cover in a win was two weeks ago against the Calgary Roughnecks, who boast the league’s best record against the spread at 6-1.
Simply put, this team should be able to outmatch Georgia in nearly every facet and win by a comfortable margin. Bet Toronto -2.5 (-115 on BetMGM).
Additionally, I’m looking to fade a player on the Georgia Swarm. FanDuel has Andrew Kew’s points props at 5.5 and I think this is a great time to fade one of Georgia’s biggest offensive pieces. In addition to the presence of Nick Rose, the Toronto defense has played extremely well this season and has only allowed six players to record six or more points in a game (with three of those instances coming in Toronto’s 22-14 win last week.)
While Kew has gone over 5.5 in three of five games this season, I think he’ll be kept in check and like betting him to go under his points prop of 5.5 (-106 on FanDuel.)
Pick: Toronto Rock -2.5, Andrew Kew Under 5.5 Points
Saskatchewan Rush (-1.5) vs. Calgary Roughnecks
| Saskatchewan Odds | -135 |
| Calgary Odds | +115 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday, 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
We have a pivotal West Conference showdown as the Saskatchewan Rush host the Roughnecks, with Calgary entering as 1.5-point underdogs.
Calgary has been one of the most profitable teams against the spread, particularly as an underdog. They’ve covered in all but one of their seven games this season and will likely live for another upset Friday.
Yet, I’m going to stay away from picking a side in this game given how short the Roughnecks’ moneyline price is, and the fact that these games are consistently close, being decided by two goals or less in the past three meetings. I think we should be in for another tight game and feel the better play is on the total.
Both these teams have shown offensive sparks throughout the season, but it’s often been against weaker defenses. Both teams also have two of the best goaltenders in net, with both Buque and Christian Del Bianco boasting a save percentage above 80% and a goals against average of less than 11.
I expect this game to be a rock fight from start to finish and think the total (23.5) is too high. The past three meetings between these teams have seen an average of 20.3 goals and only one of those games went over the 23.5 mark. Furthermore, in both of these teams’ past four games, only one game has gone over 23.5. Trust these defenses to come up big and bet under 23.5 (-110 on Caesars.)
Pick: Under 23.5
