Week 14 in the National Lacrosse League has a diverse slate of games, including the league’s first-ever outdoor game in San Diego. I’ve got four bets in two different games for Saturday, including two player props.
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San Diego Seals (-1.5) vs. Las Vegas Desert Dogs
| San Diego Odds | -210 |
| Las Vegas Odds | +168 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
The San Diego Seals will host the Las Vegas Desert Dogs in the NLL’s first-ever outdoor game. While I don’t think getting to play outside in sunny San Diego will affect how this game plays out, I do like three bets in this game.
The Seals are 2.5-point favorites on most sportsbooks, but FanDuel is currently offering Seals -1.5 at -142. I expect this Seals team to take care of a Las Vegas team that is coming in a bit overvalued thanks to a three-game win streak. The Desert Dogs have improved from expansion franchise to potential spoiler, but they don’t have the talent to match the Seals in the first meeting between these two teams.
The Seals weathered the storm early in the season when dealing with goaltending issues; since going with Chris Origlieri as their starter, they have seen some stability on defense. They’ll be playing in their first game since a February 17th loss to the Saskatchewan Rush and have plenty of time to prepare for this Las Vegas team.
I expect the Seals defense to come ready to play and this high-powered offense—that has yet to score less than 10 goals in a game this season—to have their way with Vegas on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Seals -1.5 |
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I also like Seals forward Wes Berg to have a big day. He’s recorded two goals in five of eight games this season and should have plenty of opportunities to bury a pair against this Vegas defense.
I recommend betting him to go over his goals prop of 1.5 (currently -120 on FanDuel, unless you snagged it when it was closer to -106).
Pick: Wes Berg Over 1.5 Goals |
The Desert Dogs have generated most of their offense from veteran Rob Hellyer, but he’ll have a tough task against the Seals defenders on Saturday. His points prop is set at 5.5 and he’s only gone over this mark in three games — twice against the two-win Vancouver Warriors and once against the two-win Albany FireWolves. He’s capitalized against weak opponents, but the Seals will arguably be the toughest team he’s faced all season.
I think he’ll struggle to surpass his points prop and like betting under 5.5 points (+122 on FanDuel).
Pick: Rob Hellyer Under 5.5 Points |
Picks: Seals -1.5, Wes Berg Over 1.5 Goals, Rob Hellyer Under 5.5 Points
Albany FireWolves vs. Georgia Swarm (-1.5)
| Georgia Odds | -150 |
| Albany Odds | +110 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365.
Last week we cashed a Georgia Swarm moneyline bet in their 20-4 beatdown of the Albany FireWolves, but I’d be surprised to see such a lopsided affair between these two teams again this weekend. While I’d lean Swarm -1.5, I’d rather bet this contest to be more of a slugfest.
The Albany offense continues to struggle, putting up an average of just 8.2 goals per game in their last five games and failing to crack 10 points in any of those games. Cooper Perkins discussed their offensive failings in his latest “By the Metrics” piece, and it underscored the lack of offensive talent and consistency that Albany possesses.
The Swarm are obviously capable of putting up points, but I expect some Albany adjustments to keep them more in check this week. A big question for Albany is goaltending, with Coach Glenn Clark opting to play backup Justin Geddie over Doug Jamieson last week. Who will start this week is anyone’s guess, but I don’t think that Albany’s defensive woes will allow the Swarm to push this total over 24.5 on its own.
Furthermore, consecutive matchups have historically seen lower scoring in the second game between the same two teams in back-to-back weeks. Since NLL betting has existed, the average total in the second game of consecutive matchups has seen 3.71 less goals scored and 14 of 21 of those instances (67%) have had a lower-scoring second game.
We saw 24 goals scored last week between these two teams, so based on the matchup and that trend, I like betting this total to stay under 24.5 (-120 on bet365.)
Pick: Under 24.5
