NLL Week 16 features several big conference matchups and I’m targeting three in particular. Let’s take a look at which player props, side and total I’m targeting this weekend.
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Toronto Rock (-1.5) vs. Halifax Thunderbirds
| Toronto Odds | -158 |
| Halifax Odds | +128 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
Saturday night starts with the Halifax Thunderbirds hosting the Toronto Rock. The Rock can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Buffalo loss, while Halifax is looking for a win to keep its postseason hopes alive. I expect another close one at “The Nest,” so I’m going to stay away from choosing a side. I do like two player props in this one though — both on the Thunderbirds.
Let’s start with Ryan Benesch’s points prop, which is set at 3.5. Benesch just recently became the sixth player to score 500 goals and, despite being 38 years old, has shown no signs of slowing down. This season, he’s surpassed 3.5 points in eight of 12 games (66.7%.) He’s also averaged more than five points per game.
Based on this season, his true odds should be closer to -200, but is currently listed at -156. Now, he is playing a tough Rock defense, but that didn’t stop him from recording five points in their last meeting (and the Thunderbirds were playing on short rest.) I like Benesch to go over 3.5 points again.
The other player prop I like is Randy Staats’ goals prop set at 1.5. Staats thrives more as a feeder, but I think he’ll be able to net two goals. He’s had two or more goals in eight of 11 games (72.7%.) Based on this, his true odds should be closer to -265. Yet, you can bet him to go over 1.5 at the pretty price of -138.
Additionally, Mitch De Snoo is out and Challen Rogers is questionable. While the Rock added Greg Downing via a trade with Albany, I think the Halifax offense should be able to have more success than many teams have had against Toronto. Bet Benesch to go over 3.5 points (-156 on FanDuel) and Staats to go over 1.5 goals (-138 on FanDuel).
Picks: Ryan Benesch Over 3.5 Points; Randy Staats Over 1.5 Goals.
Albany FireWolves vs. New York Riptide (-1.5)
| Albany Odds | +130 |
| New York Odds | -160 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Riptide enter as 1.5-point favorites and the total is set at 25.5 at most sportsbooks. Both teams are all but eliminated from playoff contention and have nine losses this season. Instead of picking a side, I’m going to bet on the total.
The Riptide have been in plenty of high-scoring affairs this year, but finally made a change that saw them hold the Wings to just 10 goals last week. New York opted to start Cameron Dunkerley in ne and he looked great in his first start. Now, he’ll face a FireWolves offense that has been inept, averaging six goals in their last three games and 7.86 goals per contest since their seven-game losing streak began.
Likewise, Doug Jamieson looked like he returned to form last week against Toronto. If we get Jamieson on his A-game again, then he should be able to at least stifle Jeff Teat and Co. enough to keep the game close.
Ultimately, I think this game stays under regardless of who wins. If the Riptide are able to have their way and run up the score, I doubt the FireWolves will match their production and think the under stays safe. If Albany is able to control the pace and force New York into a physical battle, then this makes me even more confident in the total staying under 25.5 (-115 on DraftKings).
Pick: Under 25.5.
Philadelphia Wings vs. Rochester Knighthawks (-1.5)
| Philadelphia Odds | +160 |
| Rochester Odds | -195 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Sunday, 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
The short-rest spot returns! Following a close loss to the Georgia Swarm on Saturday morning, the Philadelphia Wings travel to Rochester to face the Knighthawks. We’ve chronicled the short-rest trend many times throughout this season, but here’s the lowdown:
Teams playing their second game of the weekend against a fresh opponent are 6-13 outright and 5-14 against the spread. On most sportsbooks, the Knighthawks are 2.5-point favorites, but you can get them at -1.5 (-140) on Caesars.
This was already going be a tough game for the Wings, who have been streaky all season. The addition of Mitch Jones has certainly elevated the Wings offense enough to be competitive, but they’ll face a defense that has only allowed an average of 11.36 goals per game with Rylan Hartley in net.
This is more of a play on the Knighthawks offense though. Rochester has scored 12.9 goals per game this season and an average of 14 goals per game at home. It should be able to build some margin against the Wings and cover the 1.5-point spread.
Pick: Rochester Knighthawks -1.5.
