A doubleheader wraps up Week 18 in the National Lacrosse League, and I have three bets for the Sunday slate. We cashed our first best bet of the weekend on Friday, so we’re going to try and do so again this Sunday afternoon.
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Halifax Thunderbirds (-1.5) vs. Georgia Swarm
| Georgia Odds | +140 |
| Halifax Odds | -172 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
The Swarm travel to Halifax to take on the 1.5-point favorite Thunderbirds. Georgia has been hot as of late, winning five of its last six games, while Halifax has been largely up and down and has yet to win three straight games this season.
However, the Thunderbirds' schedule hasn't done them any favors. They've already been through the gauntlet of Toronto twice, Rochester twice and Buffalo three times. At 7-7, they have one of the more favorable remaining schedules left—which should help their playoff chances. If they win today, they deserve a sprinkle on their title odds, which were as long as +2500 on FanDuel last week.
I really like that the Thunderbirds are 5-1 against teams that are currently below .500 and have covered in four of those five wins. They’ll also be facing a Swarm team that has already played a game this weekend and could struggle to keep this high-powered Halifax offense in check. All of Georgia’s five wins have come against teams also below .500, and the Swarm have yet to beat a team with a winning record. I think this is a great time to fade a hot team facing a playoff contender.
It’s also important to note that Halifax defender Jake Withers is listed as doubtful. Withers is not only the top faceoff man this season—winning 77% of his draws—he’s also been one of the Thunderbirds’ top defenders and contributed on offense as well with 11 points. His potential absence is certainly a blow, but I don’t think it will prevent them from covering.
Halifax boasts one of the deepest rosters in the league, and Greame Hossack should be able to fill in just fine at the faceoff (won 53% of his draws in 2023.)
Ultimately, Halifax has the defense to keep players like Lyle Thompson in check, and I expect a big day out of the Halifax offense led by former Swarm forward Randy Staats. Bet the Thunderbirds to cover the 1.5-point spread (-122 on FanDuel).
Pick: Halifax Thunderbirds -1.5
Philadelphia Wings vs. Rochester Knighthawks (-1.5)
| Philadelphia Odds | +140 |
| Rochester Odds | -175 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Sunday, 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Both the Rochester Knighthawks and Philadelphia Wings enter Sunday desperate for a win. Rochester, who is once again a 1.5-point favorite, has lost three of its last four games and has failed to cover the spread in five straight games. The Knighthawks will be looking to secure a win and a 2023 playoff berth. The Wings currently sit at 6-8 and need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The last time these two teams met, the Wings left Rochester with a 9-8 overtime win. I expect another close game and a playoff atmosphere, so I won’t be picking a side in this one. I do expect another tight, low-scoring game though. Rylan Hartley and Zach Higgins are two of the better goaltenders in the league, Rochester’s defense recently got Dan Coates back in the lineup, and Philadelphia has played better during the second half of the season. Bet this total to stay under 24.5 (-115 on DraftKings.)
I’m also looking to bet a player prop in this one and am targeting Wings forward Mitch Jones to stay under his points prop of 8.5. Rochester has allowed just three nine-point performances this season to the likes of Dhane Smith, Lyle Thompson and Rob Hellyer. While Jones is certainly a top player and has rejuvenated this Wings offense, the Wings don’t rely on him in the same way that the other teams rely on the three aforementioned players.
Mitch Jones could deliver a nine-point performance, and he's recorded nine or more points in three games this season, including two during his time with Philly, but I don’t think he’ll surpass that in this matchup. Rochester held the Wings to just nine total points when they last played, and Jones finished with only four points.
He’s recorded fewer than nine points in 80% of his games this season, and his true odds to stay under the 8.5 mark should be closer to -400. I think -162 (FanDuel) to bet him to stay under 8.5 points is a great price, especially given the matchup.
Picks: Under 24.5; Mitch Jones Under 8.5 Points
