After going 1-1 on Friday, I’m back with three more picks for Week 7 in the National Lacrosse League. Let’s take a look at which two NLL games I’m targeting on Saturday night.
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Halifax Thunderbirds vs. Toronto Rock (-1.5)
| Toronto Odds | -165 |
| Halifax Odds | +135 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Day ⋅ Time | Saturday, 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. | |
I highlighted this matchup in my Friday morning write-up, but my angle on the game has changed a bit since lines officially went up on DraftKings late Friday night.
My hope was that oddsmakers would make the Toronto Rock underdogs or at the very least short favorites. Unfortunately, the now-posted Rock price is too steep for me to play. While I think Toronto should win and the historical numbers make this a good spot to back them against a Halifax team on short rest, I’d rather take a different approach than laying -1.5 with Toronto at -115.
Instead, I’m betting the total to stay under 24.5. Halifax just played in a hard-fought overtime loss to Albany, which I think will have a more negative effect on its offense than defense.
It'll also have to face Toronto goaltender Nick Rose, who ranks first in save percentage with 81% and has averaged just 9.25 goals against through four games.
Currently, DraftKings is the only sportsbook with odds on this game. I’d continue to keep my eye on Caesars and bet365 to see if they release lines, and if either flashes Toronto at -140 or better on the moneyline or -1.5 at even money, I’d jump on it.
Pick: Under 24.5
Calgary Roughnecks vs. San Diego Seals (-1.5)
| San Diego Odds | -190 |
| Calgary Odds | +165 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Day ⋅ Time | Saturday, 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. | |
In these teams’ first meeting, Christian Del Bianco had an uncharacteristically poor first half that was compounded by a few bad breaks. Yet, he rebounded in the second half and held San Diego to just four goals in the final 30 minutes.
Curt Malawsky’s squad showed no quit despite trailing, 17-9, with less than 14 minutes left in regulation and ended the game with a five-goal run before falling, 17-14. This Calgary team is scrappy and finds itself with its back against the wall after dropping its past two games to West rivals. This game is pivotal for Calgary to maintain pace in the West.
While its last matchup with San Diego felt out of reach for most of the game, its odds to win this rematch are way too long on one particular sportsbook. While most sportsbooks have Calgary at the reasonably priced +135 on the moneyline, Caesars is offering the Roughnecks at +165 and +1.5 at +120.
I’d be shocked if this game doesn’t go down to the wire. Calgary has a much better shot at pulling off the upset in the Saddledome than Caesars is giving it. While I think the Roughnecks could win outright, the safer play is to bet Calgary +1.5 at some juicy plus-money odds and avoid any potential overtime heartbreak.
While I think there's a ton of value on both the Calgary spread and moneyline, I still think the Seals will be able to find the back of the net and do their part in pushing this total over 23.5 once again.
Additionally, the San Diego net has been their biggest question mark through four games, with head coach Patrick Merrill benching Frank Scigliano in back-to-back games before turning to young netminder Chris Origlieri.
Origlieri appeared to be an upgrade, holding Vancouver to 11 goals in his first start of the season, but this Seals defense has still failed to hold an opponent to less than 11 goals, averaging 12.75 goals against.
Furthermore, San Diego’s defense is extremely banged up, with defenders Drew Belgrave, Eli Gobrecht and Patrick Shoemay listed as questionable, while Oliver Bolsterli has already been ruled out for Saturday.
The total is listed at 24.5 across a few sportsbooks, but you can bet over 23.5 at -110 on Caesars.
I don’t think we’ll see 31 goals like last game, but 23.5 is still too low for a Seals offense that can often score at will and a Calgary team that likes to play fast and should keep this game competitive throughout.
Pick: Roughnecks +1.5 (Bet to +100) · Over 23.5
