Week 10 in the National Lacrosse League kicks off with three Friday night matchups and I have bets for two of the games. Let’s take a look at the side, total and player prop I’m betting.
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Philadelphia Wings vs. Halifax Thunderbirds
| Philadelphia (+1.5) Odds | +120 |
| Halifax (-1.5) Odds | -150 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN + |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The weekend starts off with the 1.5-point underdog Wings hosting the Thunderbirds. The total ranges from 23.5 to 24.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Philadelphia has struggled to win games, but has been competitive in most of its contests this season, including defeating Halifax in a come-from-behind overtime victory earlier in the season. I tend to think the Thunderbirds will win this rematch, but don’t think there is enough value on them as a favorite and think we could see another close game between these two teams.
Instead, I’m looking to bet this total to go over 23.5 (-115 on DraftKings).
The first meeting between these teams nearly went over this mark with still a quarter left to play, and while Halifax will be without star forward Randy Staats, there is plenty of firepower on both ends to see another high-scoring game. The Wings were also finally healthy on offense last week for the first time since Week 2 and scored 11 on a really good San Diego defense. Yet, the pacing of both teams is the biggest reason why I expect this total to go over.
Both teams give up a ton of breakaway chances and like to force transition on their own offensive end. Both goaltenders have also been inconsistent and I expect these offenses to test them early and often.
The past three meetings between these teams have seen the total go over this mark, averaging 27 goals per game during that span. While we may not see as many as 31 goals this time around, this total should finish well above the 23.5 mark.
Pick: Over 23.5
Calgary Roughnecks vs. New York Riptide
| Calgary (-1.5) Odds | -155 |
| New York (+1.5) Odds | +125 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Friday night finishes with the Roughnecks hosting the Riptide as home favorites. New York is one of the hottest teams in the NLL right now, winning three of its last four games, including back-to-back wins against the Buffalo Bandits and Georgia Swarm. The main difference-makers have been goaltender Cameron Dunkerley, who is playing great between the pipes, and Jeff Teat, who is looking more like the MVP finalist he was last season.
Yet, I still have concerns with the Riptide’s defense. They give up way too many transition chances and have had Dunkerley bail them out many times during their wins. While Calgary’s schedule hasn’t been the toughest, it ranks second in offensive rating just behind New York and has scored five goals on 13 breakaway chances. The Roughnecks have the ability to beat the Riptide both in settled situations or in transition, with the latter being an Achilles heel for New York.
While the Riptide rank at the top in offensive rating so far this season, the Roughnecks also have the defense to keep Teat and Co. in check. Calgary ranks second defensively, allowing goals on just 15.2% of possessions. Furthermore, 2023 NLL MVP Christian Del Bianco ranks fifth in save percentage among starting goalies.
New York did just beat the top defense in Georgia last week, but the defense allowed an abysmal 27.27% shooting percentage — its worst mark of the season — and was constantly beat on the back end, allowing multiple transition goals. I don’t expect Calgary to make the same mistakes.
Bet the Roughnecks to win and cover the 1.5-point spread (-105 on Caesars).
I also expect Connor Kearnan to go under his points prop of 4.5. Kearnan has been great so far, recording five or more points in five of seven games this season, but I think this Roughnecks defense could give him trouble. He’s also managed to go over this mark in 14 of 25 games, so +125 on bet365 is a fair price to bet him to stay under 4.5 points in a tougher matchup.
Picks: Calgary Roughnecks -1.5 | Connor Kearnan Under 4.5 Points
