Week 13 in the National Lacrosse League begins with two late-night Friday matchups and I have a bet for each game. We swept the board last week, going 3-0 for +3.2 units and improving to 41-30 on the season for +10.115 units. Let’s shoot for another sweep on Friday night.
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Colorado Mammoth vs. New York Riptide
| Colorado (+1.5) Odds | +100 |
| New York (-1.5) Odds | -130 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The New York Riptide were one of the hottest teams in the NLL before the NLL Finals favorite Toronto Rock snapped their four-game win streak. The Riptide follow up their 16-10 loss to Toronto as 1.5-point road favorites against the Colorado Mammoth and this is a good spot to bet them to rebound.
New York’s four-game winning streak was not just impressive because of the amount of consecutive games they won, but because it was arguably their toughest stretch of the season. New York defeated the defending champion Buffalo Bandits, the Georgia Swarm, last year’s West Conference finalists in Calgary and the team with the second-shortest title odds in San Diego.
They won all of those games thanks to stellar goaltending from Cameron Dunkerly and a Jeff Teat-led offense that is getting it done in both transition and settled situations. Dunkerly’s play in particular allowed their defense to play more aggressive, which was key in their wins over Georgia and San Diego in particular.
Furthermore, New York was without key offseason acquisition and third-leading goal scorer Kiel Matisz in its last game, but he’ll be suiting up for the highest-rated offense according to LaxMetrics on Friday.
The Riptide face a Colorado defense that ranks second-to-last in opposing shooting percentage allowed, giving up goals on 20.2% of its defensive possessions. The Mammoth defense has done a poor job of supporting their star goaltender, Dillon Ward, which has led the 2022 NLL Finals MVP to have one of his worst seasons.
According to LaxMetrics, 15% of Ward’s total saves have been one-on-ones—the second-highest rate in the league. New York ranks fourth in breakaway attempts and second in breakaway goals, so look for the Riptide to exploit the one-on-one chances Colorado allows.
Bet New York -1.5 at +110 on DraftKings.
Pick: New York Riptide -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
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San Diego Seals vs. Georgia Swarm
| San Diego (-1.5) Odds | -200 |
| Georgia (+1.5) Odds | +150 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Friday · 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via bet365
The San Diego Seals host Georgia on Friday night and the Swarm are 1.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks, though you can also bet Georgia +2.5 at -145 on Caesars. I think the Swarm are capable of covering the spread, but don’t like laying that much when there is a better way to back Georgia available to us.
San Diego forward Austin Staats is having one of his best seasons and has recorded a hat trick in five straight games (including a sock trick against Colorado two weeks ago). His recent success has caused his goals prop to inflate to 3.5, but he’s stayed under this mark in six of nine games this season. If you include last season, Staats has stayed under 3.5 goals in 20 of 26 games.
This matchup against a Brett Dobson-led defense won’t do him any favors either. Georgia still ranks first in shots defended, according to LaxMetrics, allowing goals on just 13.8% of shots. The Swarm have also only allowed three players to score four or more goals this season (Jeff Teat, Corey Small, Ryan Martel.)
Even at -160, bet365’s price to bet under 3.5 has value and I recommend making that your play for the Seals vs. Swarm game.
Pick: Austin Staats Under 3.5 Goals (-160 at bet365)
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