There are three more National Lacrosse League games on Saturday and I have best bets for two of them. I’m betting two underdogs to get outright wins on the road, so let’s take a look at which potential upsets I’m banking on in my NLL Week 14 betting picks.
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Albany FireWolves vs. New York Riptide
| Albany (-1.5) Odds | -152 |
| New York (+1.5) Odds | +120 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Bet Rivers
Albany hosts the New York Riptide on Saturday night and the FireWolves are 1.5-point favorites at home. Albany is on a two-game winning streak while New York is looking to snap a two-game losing skid.
The FireWolves started the season as the hottest team in the NLL, winning six straight before dropping two games to San Diego and Las Vegas. Since their 9-6 loss to the Desert Dogs, Albany squeaked out wins against Colorado and Buffalo.
Those would typically be big wins, but neither team has looked great this season and with the sample size we have now, the apparent issues both the Mammoth and Bandits have are very much legitimate.
New York hasn’t been a model of consistency themselves, with two blowout losses to the aforementioned Colorado and the current NLL Finals favorite in Toronto, but I think this is a good buy-low spot on the Riptide.
New York’s impressive four-game win streak prior to their two-game skid was defined by the league’s highest-rated offense at the time, excellent goalie play and an aggressive defense.
New York’s offense still ranks second in offensive rating according to LaxMetrics and while they’ll face one of the top goalies in the league in Doug Jamieson, Albany’s defense still ranks 10th in shots defended with an opposing shooting percentage of 18.2%.
I expect the Riptide to give Albany’s defense some trouble and exploit them in transition.
New York has also been without one of their top-scorers in Kiel Matisz during their last two games. He was activated earlier in the week and his versatility should give both the offense and defense a spark.
As for New York’s defense, they’ve been susceptible to giving up transition chances, but Albany has generated the second-fewest breakaway chances and has the fewest breakaway goals with just two. The Riptide defense has been effective when pressing out on teams and trusting netminder Cameron Dunkerly to make saves—a strategy I expect to have success against Albany.
Cooper Perkins of LaxMetrics also expects some regression from the FireWolves offense coming soon, noting that the team’s conversion rate of 28.4% is above the league average of 27% and likely unsustainable.
New York is +120 to win outright on BetRivers and I think anything above +110 is a fair price to bet the Riptide to win outright on Saturday.
Pick: New York Riptide ML
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Colorado Mammoth vs. Saskatchewan Rush
| Colorado (-1.5) Odds | -175 |
| Saskatchewan (+1.5) Odds | +135 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365
The Colorado Mammoth and Saskatchewan Rush meet with one team coming off an 18-10 win and the other off a 19-6 loss. Colorado enters as a 1.5-point favorite at home, but I think both teams are more evenly matched than the moneyline odds are indicating.
Colorado has certainly turned a corner on offense, posting double digits in three straight games, but I’m still not sold on their offense that still tends to rely on herculean efforts from their star players. Colorado still ranks bottom-five in goals over expectation with -2.29, while Saskatchewan’s offense is performing slightly above expectations with 4.34 goals over expectation according to LaxMetrics.
Both defenses have also been comparably bad, tied for second-worst in shots defended in the league and allowing opponents to score on 19.9% of their shots. Mammoth goaltender Dillon Ward is having a down year—mostly due to the team’s defensive struggles—and I trust the Rush offense to be able to have more success generating one-on-one chances with Ward.
While Saskatchewan netminder Frank Scigliano has had his ups and downs, he still ranks fourth among starters in saves per 60 minutes, averaging 40.2, and has had success against weaker offenses like Vancouver, Las Vegas and Panther City.
Ultimately, this game should be priced closer to a pick ‘em, so +135 on bet365 is a great price to bet the Rush to come away with a victory in Colorado.
Pick: Saskatchewan Rush ML
