The National Lacrosse League’s Week 16 features four Saturday matchups, including two big rivalry games. This weekend the Buffalo Bandits face the Toronto Rock and the Georgia Swarm host the Philadelphia Wings. I have a bet for each game. Last week, our NLL best bets went 5-0, so let’s keep the momentum going on Saturday.
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Buffalo Bandits vs. Toronto Rock
| Buffalo (+1.5) | +120 |
| Toronto (-1.5) | -152 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Bet Rivers
Buffalo faces Toronto for the second time this season and the Bandits are once again 1.5-point underdogs despite defeating the Rock in their first meeting, 16-14. Even considering their first matchup this season, I think Toronto should be able to beat Buffalo and win by margin.
Even with starting goalie Matt Vinc back from injury, the Bandits' defense has really struggled. The Bandits have allowed at least 13 goals in their last eight games. Furthermore, their bottom-five defense has allowed opponents to shoot an average of 18.8% this season and it is 21.45% in its last seven games. Meanwhile, Toronto’s defense ranks second in defensive shooting percentage, holding teams to just 15.5% according to LaxMetrics.
In their last meeting, Toronto fell victim to an early deficit and their 13 penalty minutes led directly to three power play goals for Buffalo. They also were unable to go on as big of scoring runs with faceoff specialist TD Ierlan out of the lineup. Buffalo’s seven-goal run in the fourth quarter put the game out of reach despite the Toronto offense still managing to finish with a four goal run of their own.
This time around, both teams will have faceoff specialists taking draws with Buffalo signing Connor Farrell two weeks ago and Ierlan in the lineup for this game. I expect Toronto’s defense to perform much better and Ierlan’s slight edge at the faceoff to allow the Rock to build and maintain a lead.
Bet Toronto to cover the 1.5-point spread at +100 on Caesars or BetRivers.
Pick: Toronto Rock -1.5
Georgia Swarm vs. Philadelphia Wing
| Georgia (-1.5) | -180 |
| Philadelphia (+1.5) | +140 |
| Total | 23 |
| Time | Saturday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Georgia hosts the Philadelphia Wings on Saturday night and the Swarm are 1.5-point favorites. Despite Georgia boasting a better record, I expect Philadelphia to keep the game close and potentially win outright. These two teams have played an unprecedented seven straight one-goal games and while history isn’t necessarily an indicator for future results, these teams are more evenly matched than it may appear.
Philadelphia and Georgia both rank in the top-three in defensive shooting percentage, with the Wings allowing a league-low 15.5% and Swarm sitting at third with 16% according to LaxMetrics. Furthermore, Georgia is sixth in offensive rating and Philadelphia is third.
Ultimately, the Wings hold a slight edge on paper in what should be another close game. Bet a full unit on Wings +1.5 and a half unit on Philly on the moneyline at +140 on DraftKings or Caesars.
Picks: Philadelphia Wings +1.5 (1 unit), Philadelphia Wings ML (0.5 unit)
