The final weekend in the National Lacrosse League continues on Saturday, and I have NLL Week 21 best bets for two of the games. I’m targeting both a 2.5-point favorite and a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday night.
Let’s take a look at who they are.
Halifax Thunderbirds vs. Colorado Mammoth
| Halifax (-2.5) | Moneyline (-265) |
| Colorado (+2.5) | Moneyline (+190) |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via ESPN Bet
The Halifax Thunderbirds have already clinched a playoff berth, but they can secure a home game with a win. The Colorado Mammoth, on the other hand, have already been eliminated from playoff contention and have nothing else to play for but pride.
Considering the motivation spot, how Halifax has been playing recently, and the absence of Colorado’s starting goaltender and 2022 NLL Finals MVP Dillon Ward, this is a great spot to bet the Thunderbirds.
Halifax is fairly average when it comes to shots defended and offensive rating, but has a tendency to beat up on weaker teams. The Thunderbirds are 8-3 against teams currently lower than them in the standings and have a margin of victory of 5.1 goals in those eight wins. Meanwhile, Colorado ranks bottom-four in both opponent shooting percentage and offensive rating according to LaxMetrics. The Mammoth will also be without arguably their best player in the aforementioned starting goaltender Ward.
Ultimately, I expect Halifax to come out strong in the team's final regular-season game and build and maintain a lead en route to a win and cover. Bet Halifax -2.5 at -110 at ESPN Bet.
Pick: Halifax Thunderbirds -2.5
Saskatchewan Rush vs. Toronto Rock
| Saskatchewan (+2.5) | Moneyline (+225) |
| Toronto (-2.5) | Moneyline (-330) |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via ESPN Bet
The Saskatchewan Rush enter their season finale needing a win against the top team in the league to have a chance at making the playoffs. Toronto is a 2.5-point road favorite, but there’s value in betting Saskatchewan as a big home underdog.
Toronto has three players listed as out on the injury report, including forward Chris Boushy. While the Rock – who have already locked up home-field advantage in the postseason – haven’t hinted at resting starters, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a team that suffered one of the highest numbers of injuries this season be cautious with playing time in a meaningless game.
While Toronto’s top-ranked defense would typically give them a significant edge in this game, they have been susceptible to allowing breakaway chances and Saskatchewan has generated the second-highest amount of both breakaway chances and goals. Additionally, the Rush and Rock are actually more similar in offensive rating than their records might indicate and have been more efficient than Toronto on offense, according to LaxMetrics.
Furthermore, the Rush have lost by more than two only three times this season – twice to Halifax and once to New York. They have also covered as 2.5-point underdogs both times this season, including last week's outright win over San Diego.
The odds are way too long for a desperate Saskatchewan team that has shown it can be competitive with anyone this season. Bet a full unit on Saskatchewan +2.5 and a half unit on the moneyline at +225 on ESPN Bet.
Picks: Saskatchewan Rush +2.5 (1 unit) | Saskatchewan Rush Moneyline (0.5 unit)
