National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 5 Best Bets for Friday

Week 5 of the National Lacrosse League features a full slate of games with 14 of the 15 teams in action. The weekend kicks off with three games on Friday night, and I have bets on two sides and two player props.

Let’s take a look at my best bets for each Friday night matchup.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Halifax Thunderbirds vs. Philadelphia Wings

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Friday night starts with the Halifax Thunderbirds hosting the Philadelphia Wings. Halifax is a 2.5-point favorite across all sportsbooks and the total is currently 23.5 at most sportsbooks. Halifax is 2-0 to start the season while the Wings are looking to snap a two-game losing streak.

Even considering Philadelphia’s injuries, I’m hesitant to lay the -2.5 with Halfiax. Philadelphia played Toronto tighter than the final score indicated and while the offense was certainly missing Blaze Riorden and Holden Cattoni in their loss to Albany, their struggles had more to do with Philly’s defenders being unable to stop Albany’s extremely efficient offense. Their offense has done a good job limiting turnovers and Zach Higgins has been one of the best goaltenders at stopping one-on-one opportunities — which will be key to limiting the Thunderbirds’ transition chances. 

Meanwhile, Halifax has beat up on weaker teams in their first two wins. So, while I still consider them a top-5 team, the Wings will arguably be the best team they’ve faced so far this season. I think Higgins will keep Philadelphia in this game and while I expect Halifax to win, the potential for a backdoor cover by Philly is enough to scare me off the spread. Instead, I’m looking at a buy-low spot on a Wings player in the prop market.

Mitch Jones is the straw that stirs the drink for the Wings offense, and while he’s lost some help on the left side with Riorden and the elder Cattoni brother, he’s going to be involved in nearly every successful possession for Philadelphia.

Jones has five or more points in 13 of his last 15 games with the Wings, including seven in Philadelphia’s 14-10 loss to Halifax last season. On LaxMetrics, Jones ranks second of all forwards in facilitator score, which measures a player’s impact as a passer.

I expect Jones will be relied on heavily once again, and even though Halifax boasts one of the better defenses in the league, I expect him to make his impact felt both as a passer and goal-scorer. 

Pick: Mitch Jones Over 4.5 Points

Buffalo Bandits vs. Georgia Swarm

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Both the Buffalo Bandits and Georgia Swarm rebounded from losses with convincing wins in their last games. Buffalo edged out one of the title co-favorites in San Diego and Georgia beat Colorado again in the teams’ second meeting of the season. The Bandits are as a high as 2.5-point favorites at home against Georgia

Buffalo played San Diego well despite their defensive injuries to Adam Bomberry, Justin Robinson and Bryce Sweeting. Yet, the advanced metrics suggest that the Buffalo defense isn’t completely back to form, ranking second-worst in defensive shooting percentage. According to LaxMetrics, they’ve allowed opposing teams to score on 21% of their shots, which is not far behind a Colorado team that ranks last with 24.3%.

They’ll face a similarly stacked offense in Georgia on Friday night. The Swarm offense successfully attacked the porous Colorado defense in both their wins and has gotten production from a variety of players. I think Georgia forwards Lyle Thompson, Brendan Bomberry, Shayne Jackson and Andrew Kew will continue to have success, predominantly off some phenomenal pick play that we saw them deploy against Colorado. The Bandits certainly have the offensive firepower to match Georgia, but I give the Brett Dobson-led Swarm the edge when it comes to the defensive side of the ball.

While the vig to bet Swarm +2.5 has moved from -110 to now -135 on Caesars, I think it’s still worth betting at that price in combination with a half unit on the moneyline at +165. I expect Georgia to keep it close for the full 60 minutes, at the very least cover the 2.5-point spread and potentially win outright in Buffalo.

Picks: Georgia Swarm +2.5 (1 unit) and Georgia Swarm ML (0.5 unit)

San Diego Seals vs. Rochester Knighthawks

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The final game of the night features the undefeated Rochester Knighthawks visiting the 1-1 San Diego Seals. Despite being undefeated, Rochester enters as 1.5-point underdogs against San Diego.

The Knighthawks entered the season undervalued, but this is a spot I want to fade Rochester. The Seals are coming of a loss to Buffalo that was closer than the final score indicated and should be able to stifle a Knighthawks offense that has been performing at an unsustainable level.

Rochester’s offense ranks third in goals per game, but their offense has been inefficient and relied heavily on second and third chances off of loose balls. According to LaxMetrics, their Experimental Offensive Efficiency (eOE) of 31.86 ranks 13th behind only Philadelphia and Las Vegas — both one-win teams. They also placed Turner Evans on the injured list earlier this week and will face a San Diego defense that should be able to limit their second chances and transition opportunities.

As far as goaltending is concerned, San Diego’s Chris Origlieri boasts the best one-on-one save percentage among starters with a minimum of one start, stopping 81.8% of shots in one-on-one situations. Rochester lost presumed starter Rylan Hartley to injury last week and while Riley Hutchcraft isn’t much of a downgrade, this defense hasn’t been all that impressive in their first three games.

There is still value on San Diego as a heavy favorite in this meeting. Bet the Seals -1.5 at -110 on FanDuel.

I’m also targeting a player prop in this game. Connor Fields is Rochester’s leading scorer, but will be without fellow lefty forward in the aforementioned Evans. He’ll have to contend with a deep San Diego defense that has played well in front of Origlieri. Fields’s player prop is 6.5 — a mark he’s stayed under in 11 of his last 21 games.

Given the matchup and price of +110 on bet365, this is a great spot to bet Fields to stay under 6.5 points on Friday night.

Picks: San Diego Seals -1.5, Connor Fields Under 6.5 Points