National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 6 Best Bets

The National Lacrosse League kicks off the new year with four games in Week 6 and I have a betting angle for each. Despite the smaller slate, there are plenty of sell-high, buy-low spots. Let’s dive into the betting edges for this weekend!

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check outmy guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Albany FireWolves vs. Halifax Thunderbirds

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No team has been hotter than the 4-0 Albany FireWolves—pun definitely intended. They enter their matchup with Halifax seeking their fifth straight win, despite many having low expectations for them entering this season. The game is a pick ‘em on the moneyline and the total is as high as 24.5.

This is a great bounce-back spot for a Halifax team that led the Philadelphia Wings for the entire game before a late rally and overtime goal by Alabama native Jack Jasinski gave Philadelphia the overtime win and spoiled Halifax’s 3-0 bid. The Thunderbirds were even money on the moneyline when the lines opened, but unfortunately, I think much of the value is gone with the best price now -115. I make Halifax a slight favorite, but the market also doesn’t appear to be completely bought into Albany either.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the FireWolves offense is the real deal and continued solid goalie play from Doug Jamieson will allow this team to comfortably make the playoffs and potentially make a run. Yet, we’re reaching the peak of the market for this team soon and there are better angles to play this game than betting a winner.

Instead, I’m targeting two player props to effectively fade an Albany defense that is getting bailed out by Jamieson and offense that may see some slight regression against a better Thunderbirds defense.

I think the Halifax offense should have a ton of success on Saturday and the best way to bet them to do so is betting Austin Shanks to surpass his points prop of 3.5 (-130 on bet365.) Shanks may not get the same recognition as star players like Ryan Benesch, Randy Staats or Clarke Petterson, but he has been sneakily producing at a high level. Shanks has had at least four points in all three games this season and his numbers hold up still even if you include last season. Shanks has also gone over this mark in 10 of his last 15 games, making -130 still an excellent price to bet him to go over 3.5 points against an Albany defense allowing a 19.8% defensive shooting percentage—which ranks 12th out of 15 NLL teams according to LaxMetrics.

Additionally, the Halifax defense has been Jekyll and Hyde this season, but I think they’ll hold up enough to keep Ethan Walker under 6.5 points on Saturday night. Albany’s offensive efficiency has been off the charts, ranking third in goals over expectation with 3.60 this season. Rookie of the year favorite Alex Simmons has been playing like and MVP and his performance has led to an increase in production for his former Denver teammate. Yet, Halifax will be the toughest defense the FireWolves face this season and 6.5 is way too high of a mark for Walker. Despite going over this mark in two of four games this season, those two games are the only two of his last 21 that saw him score seven or more points. At -110 on bet365, this is a great spot to hammer Walker to stay under his points prop of 6.5.

Picks: Austin Shanks Over 3.5 Points, Ethan Walker Under 6.5 Points

Buffalo Bandits vs. Colorado Mammoth

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If you want a seemingly uncomfortable game to bet, look no further than the 2023 NLL Finals rematch between the Colorado Mammoth and Buffalo Bandits. Colorado enters as underdogs after their overtime victory against Vancouver, while Buffalo seeks to get back to .500 after a 9-8 loss to Georgia last week. These teams have historically played each other tight, with five of the last eight games being decided by two or fewer goals. Colorado is also 5-3 during that span.

Yet, I’m here to tell you to throw out everything you think you know about this matchup because one of these teams has a significant edge over the other.

While Caesars flashed and quickly moved Buffalo -1.5 earlier in the week, I think there’s still plenty of value in betting Buffalo to cover the 2.5-point spread. Buffalo lost to a very good Georgia team by a goal and had it not been for the stellar goalie play of Brett Dobson, might have secured the victory last week. According to LaxMetrics, Buffalo’s 38 unrealized assists and 45 total first order chances was the most in a single game in three seasons of tracking. The defense appears to be improving despite subpar goaltending from future hall of famer Matt Vince and a plethora of injuries, allowing just three one-on-one chances for Georgia last week and no more than eight in any game this season.

Buffalo has also been the best at drawing penalties, averaging 3.7 penalties drawn per game. They’ll face a Colorado team that has racked up a whopping 76 penalty minutes through three games, which set ups a solid Buffalo power play unit well on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Colorado struggles to pass the eye test and the advanced metrics don’t look any better for the 2023 NLL runner-up. Despite shutting out Vancouver in the second half of last week’s win, they’re allowing an opposing shooting percentage of 21.1%, which is worst in the league. Their Ryan Lee-lacking offense hasn’t been all too impressive either, logging 7.75 goals less than expectation according and shooting 10% or less in five of 12 quarters this season according to LaxMetrics.

This is the perfect spot to back Buffalo to cover the 2.5-point spread (+100 on BetRivers.)

Pick: Buffalo Bandits -2.5

Georgia Swarm vs. Panther City Lacrosse Club

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Also, at 7:30pm ET is a game featuring a team that has defeated both 2023 NLL Finals participants already this season. Georgia is currently 3-1 with two convincing wins over Colorado and a 9-8 victory over Buffalo last week. The Swarm are one of the most complete teams in the league, with multiple offensive weapons, a veteran group of defenders and arguably the best goaltender in pro lacrosse right now in Brett Dobson.

Dobson is only second to Nick Rose in robberies per 60 minutes and is stopping 69% of one-on-ones according to LaxMetrics. The Georgia defense as whole has also been stellar, limiting opposing shooters to just 13.4% shooting, and faces one of the worst teams offensively so far this season. Panther City’s offensive rating of 93.88 is last in the league and their 29.0 turnovers per game ranks second-worst. While the Panther City offense is too talented to struggle this much, I don’t think the breakout game will come against the Swarm.

Panther City has done well in limiting breakaways, allowing just two opportunities through three games. However, both those chances led to goals and goaltender Nick Damude has struggled to stop one-on-one chances this season, allowing goals on nine of 19 one-on-one chances. While Georgia has struggled to convert on breakaways so far this season, their 10 breakaway chances lead the league and underline their commitment to pushing in transition. If they can generate these chances against Panther City, they should be able to cash in against Damude.

The Swarm are still 1.5-point favorites on bet365 at the time of publishing, but I like a ladder approach given the heavy juice. I think Georgia can win by margin and recommend betting a unit on Swarm -1.5 (-150 on bet365) and a half unit on Swarm -2.5 (+114 on FanDuel.)

Picks: Georgia Swarm -1.5 (1 unit) & 2.5 (0.5 unit)

Philadelphia Wings vs. New York Riptide

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The final game of the weekend features the Philadelphia Wings hosting the New York Riptide. The Wings are fresh off an overtime win against the Halifax Thunderbirds, while the Riptide are seeking their first win after an 0-3 start. This game once featured the largest spread of the week with Philadelphia opening as a 3.5-point favorite on Caesars. They are now 2.5-point favorites at every sportsbook.

When it opened, New York as a 3.5-point underdog was very enticing when considering how close these teams play each other and that New York lost the season opener to Philly just 13-10. However, New York forward and captain Damon Edwards has been placed on IR and there’s a chance Philadelphia forwards Blaze Riorden and Holden Cattoni could return from injury for this game. Still, I don’t like Philadelphia enough as a 2.5-point favorite and think there is a better way to bet New York in another potentially close game.

Philadelphia’s defense is still relying way too much on Zach Higgins, who has faced a league-high 40 one-on-one chances, stopping 62.5% of them this season. I think the Riptide should be able to turn out a better offensive performance than what we’ve seen so far through three weeks. The Riptide have been woefully inefficient so far this season with a goals over expectation mark of -11.64 according to LaxMetrics. This in part can be attributed to star forward Jeff Teat’s struggles. Teat has just five goals on 34 shots on goal and his goals over expectations of -2.69 ranks in the bottom 10 of the league, making this game a potential buy-low spot for the 2023 NLL MVP finalist.

Teat also thrives as a passer, but the Riptide are struggling to convert on Teat’s assist opportunities. Teat is just outside the top 20 in facilitator score, which measures a player’s offensive passing ability, and is tied for fifth in unrealized assists with 20. This Riptide showed during the first week of the season that they can generate quality scoring chances against this Philadelphia defense and with Teat still the nucleus of this offense, I think he could have a big game on Sunday.

Teat has yet to go over 6.5 points this season, but went over in 13 of 18 games last season with largely the same supporting cast, including 8 and 9-goal performances against Philly last year. Even amidst his struggles, Teat managed to record five points against the Wings in their earlier meeting. While the vig has moved from +100 to now -120, this is a great opportunity to bet Teat to go over 6.5 points on bet365.

Pick: Jeff Teat Over 6.5 Points