The largest National Lacrosse League slate continues with six more games on Saturday. I have bets for three of the matchups, including sides, totals and player props. Let’s examine where the betting edges are in NLL Week 7.
Here are my National Lacrosse League betting picks.
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Rochester Knighthawks vs. Buffalo Bandits
| Rochester Odds | +142 |
| Buffalo Odds | -176 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. When betting lacrosse, register with Action Network's FanDuel Sportsbook promo code today for a sign-up offer.
The night starts with a battle between two cross-town rivals. Before Upstate New York residents are treated to a home Buffalo Bills game, the two pro lacrosse teams owned by the Pegulas face off at Blue Cross Arena in Rochester.
The Buffalo Bandits opened as 1.5-point favorites at -105 on Caesars, but the odds have since moved to -145 and the line itself is now -2.5 at some other places. I think the Bandits will best the Knighthawks on Saturday night, but there’s no value in betting them on the spread this weekend. Instead, I’d target the total and two player props.
The total is as high as 24.5 at some sportsbooks, but both FanDuel and Caesars are offering 23.5, which is too low for these offenses.
While underlying metrics have brought into question how sustainable the Knighthawks’ early offensive success is, they still lead the NLL in goals per game with an average of 14.25. They’ve also managed to score at least 13 goals in each of their four games, despite not ranking too highly in overall efficiency. The Bandits are the other side of the coin, scoring 13 or more goals just once this season despite being tied for first in total first order chances (high-quality scoring chances) entering this weekend according to LaxMetrics.
Neither team’s defense has been overly impressive and I think both offenses will be able to exploit their weaknesses.
While Buffalo’s defense appears to be improving, they’re still middle of the pack when it comes to defensive shooting percentage, ranking seventh of 15 teams with a 16.9% shots defended entering this weekend. Rochester’s defense has fared even worse, ranking last in shots defended percentage with 20.6% heading into this matchup. Furthermore, Rochester has allowed five breakaways and four breakaway goals in their last three games and are facing a Buffalo offense that has generated the third-highest number of breakaways with nine through four games, despite only converting on two of those chances.
Two of the last three games between these teams have surpassed 23.5 goals, with an average of 26 goals scored in those three meetings. Bet this game to go over 23.5.
I’m also targeting a pair of overs for two of the league’s biggest stars’ goals props.
Buffalo forward Josh Byrne is one of the most lethal goal-scorers in the league and ranks fifth in total first order chances with 8.5 per game. He had four goals in the two games against Rochester that he played in last season and has recorded a hat trick in 14 of the last 22 games that didn’t see him leave with an injury. Even though it’s moved from -135 to -160 on bet365, there’s still value in betting Byrne to go over 2.5 goals on Saturday night.
Another goals prop I’m looking at is Knighthawks forward Connor Fields to go over 1.5 goals. This is simply a bad line for Fields, who has two or more goals in all but one of 22 games since joining Rochester last season. While his lone game without multiple goals was against Buffalo in the playoffs last year, he tied his season high in shots with 15. Fields is going to find ways to find the back of the net in a game he’ll be relied on heavily. This prop has also moved from -190 to -230 on bet365, but the juice is still worth the squeeze. Bet Fields to score at least two goals on Saturday night.
Picks: Over 23.5, Josh Byrne Over 2.5 Goals, Connor Fields Over 1.5 Goals
New York Riptide vs. Panther City Lacrosse Club
| New York Odds | -120 |
| Panther City Odds | -110 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. When betting lacrosse, register with Action Network's Caesars Sportsbook promo code today for a sign-up offer.
The second game I’m looking at is a perfect “buy low, sell high” opportunity. Panther City heads to Long Island to face the New York Riptide, with both teams sitting at 1-3. This game is currently near a pick ‘em across sportsbooks, but I think one team holds a decent edge.
Panther City has faced some fierce competition in their past two games, facing the title favorites entering this weekend in Toronto and the red-hot Georgia Swarm. They played both teams extremely tight, with another great performance from their defense. Regardless of whether it’s Nicm Damude or Cam McLeod in net, Panther City should snap their three-game losing streak against a New York team coming off their first win of the season.
Panther City’s defense currently ranks third in the league in shots defended, holding opponents to just 15.1% shooting. They are also allowing just 10.75 goals per game, good enough for fourth-best in the NLL. While Panther City’s offense has really struggled to convert quality chances, we should see some positive regression against a much weaker defense than the ones they’ve faced in their last two games.
New York finally had the offensive outburst they need last week, but it benefited heavily from Jay Thorimbert’s dominance at the faceoff, winning 83.3% of draws, and posting the best offensive performance of the weekend, registering an offensive rating of 148.08 on LaxMetrics.vIt was a good sign of how well the Riptide could play, but Caesars making them slight favorites against Panther City feels premature. Even if New York’s offense has finally figured it out, their defense is still allowing opposing offenses to score at an unimpressive 18.6% and an average of 46 opposing shots on goal per game. They also are still without their captain, defender Damon Edwards.
Bet Callum Crawford and Panther City to get the outright win (-110 on Caesars) against Crawford’s former team.
I also recommend betting Panther City forward Will Malcolm to go over 1.5 goals (+115 on bet365) on Saturday. Malcolm has struggled as a goal-scorer, with only one multi-goal performance this season. His -3.77 goals over expectation is bottom-five in LaxMetrics’ rankings, but for a player of Malcolm’s caliber, this tells me a regression to the mean is coming. While typically more of a facilitator, Malcolm has two or more goals in eight of 19 games last season. This is a great matchup for Malcolm and he should be able to bury at least two goals on Saturday night.
Picks: Panther City ML, Will Malcolm Over 1.5 Goals
Georgia Swarm vs. Albany FireWolves
| Georgia Odds | -130 |
| Albany Odds | -110 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365. Sign up with Action's bet365 bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League matches!
The biggest game of the season so far is arguably the 5-0 FireWolves taking on the 4-1 Georgia Swarm, with the winner able to make a case for best team in the league (just don’t ask Toronto fans). While Albany is an underdog on the spread once again despite their undefeated start, the game is close to a pick ‘em across sportsbooks.
Albany just keeps winning, despite playing some good teams. Yet, I think Georgia is the perfect team to hand them their first loss and exploit a defense that has relied too much on their strong offense. Beyond their 5-0 start and league-best 67 goals for, Albany is fourth in offensive rating and are very much one of the best units in the league. Yet, they’ve only faced one team that ranks in the top five in shots defended (Zach Higgins-led Philadelphia Wings) and they’ll get their toughest task against a Georgia defense allowing an NLL-best 13.3% shooting to opposing offenses.
Georgia hasn’t allowed higher than 17.7% in any quarter this season and anything that does get past the defense, goaltender Brett Dobson has stopped. Dobson leads the league in robberies per 60 minutes with 9.61 and total one-on-one saves with 37. He is also second in save percentage, stopping 80% of the shots he’s faced. This Swarm defense should give Albany their toughest test.
However, the biggest concern for Albany should be their defense. Albany ranks 12th in defensive shooting percentage, allowing 18.9% shooting to opposing offenses and the Swarm are fifth in offensive rating right behind Albany. I also expect the Swarm to continue to generate a ton of transition chances against this defense. Georgia leads the leak in breakaway chances with 13 and has converted five of those into goals. Albany netminder Doug Jamieson has allowed goals on nine of 16 one-on-one chances and I expect Georgia to exploit this on Saturday.
Earlier this week, Cooper Perkins of LaxMetrics argued that Georgia, not Albany or Toronto, should be at the top of power rankings. I agree and expect the Swarm to prove it on Saturday night. Bet a unit on Georgia on the moneyline (-130 on bet365/Caesars) and a half unit on Georgia to cover the 1.5-point spread (+120 on bet365).
Picks: Swarm ML (1 unit), Swarm -1.5 (0.5 unit)
